Mateo’s fit on the 2025 Orioles is a puzzle

Last November, when Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias unexpectedly announced in a Zoom call that the left-field wall would be brought closer to home plate for this season, he also offered an unexpected and unprompted endorsement of Jorge Mateo.

“I think he was an underrated absence for us in the second half,” Elias said. “He had a reconstructive elbow surgery. Whether he’s 100 percent full-go on the first day of spring training is still TBD, but suffice to say, he’s going to have a very full, if not 162 games, something close to that season. He’s really somebody that we’re able to plan around fully more or less in 2025, and that hasn’t changed.”

A few days later, the Orioles offered Mateo a contract for the 2025 season, and though they didn’t settle with him until they were scheduled for an arbitration hearing, Mateo was back with the team.

Mateo is being paid $3.55 million for 2025 with a team option for $5.5 million for 2026.

Even though manager Brandon Hyde was skeptical that Mateo would be ready for the start of the season, the 29-year-old was there in Toronto for Opening Day on March 27^th.

He played in five Grapefruit League games, then stayed in Florida for a few days, getting extra at-bats in simulated games before coming north.

Since then, Mateo has played in six games, starting at shortstop three times in place of Gunnar Henderson, whose season didn’t start until Friday because of a strained right intercostal muscle, and playing center field on Sunday in Kansas City.

Mateo is hitless in 11 at-bats with a stolen base in last Monday’s home opener.

The Orioles have begun the season a lackluster 4-6, and though I don’t like to draw many conclusions from such a small number of games, Mateo’s role on this team is puzzling.

Though I wasn’t able to be in Kansas City over the weekend, I watched the games closely, and like many fans was surprised to see Mateo playing center field.

Hyde played a predominantly right-handed hitting lineup against Royals left-hander Kris Bubic, who actually has more success against right-handers (.262, .753 OPS) than left-handers (.301, .891 OPS).

Left-handers Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad, Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn all sat while right-handers Mateo, Ramón Lauerano and Gary Sánchez were in the lineup. Holliday had three hits in Saturday’s 8-1 win, and Kjerstad had two hits.

Mullins played in the Orioles’ first nine games and was hitting .313 with a 1.092 OPS and was 4-for-8 against Bubic. Mateo was 2-for-4 entering the game.

Had Laureano, an accomplished centerfielder, started there and Mateo in left, it wouldn’t have been as noteworthy or second-guessed.

But in the bottom of the first, Mateo wasn’t able to catch a fly ball from Bobby Witt Jr. that should have been caught. Statcast gave it a 99 percent chance of being caught. It was scored a triple that led to a three-run inning, and the Orioles lost, 4-1.

Bubic was excellent against the right-hand-hitting lineup , allowing a run on five hits in 6 2/3, and the Orioles were hitless against three Royals relievers.

It was just one loss, but the Mateo play stands out.

“I thought I had it,” Mateo told reporters in Kansas City through the team translator. “The ball was hit a little harder than I thought it was at first, but then after I was able to recover as the game went on.”

Mullins will play the vast majority of games in center field, but when he sits against a left-hander, will Hyde play Mateo there again or will he play Lauerano, who has 329 starts in center in eight major league seasons?

Despite Elias’ endorsement, Mateo’s role on the team is fuzzy. Despite a 1-for-13 start, Henderson will hit and play shortstop daily. Holliday (.333 with an .888 OPS), Ramón Urías (.370, .859 OPS) and Jordan Westburg (.297, .891 OPS) are all off to excellent starts.

If Henderson, Holliday, Urías and Westburg get the vast majority of starts at second base, shortstop and third base, where does that leave Mateo?

Dylan Carlson, a switch-hitting outfielder who went to Norfolk when Henderson was activated on Friday, appears to be a better fit in the current outfield alignment.

It’s fine for the Orioles to have Mateo as a 26^th man, a pinch-runner or someone to fill in if there’s a short-term injury in the infield, but it doesn’t seem that center field is the right spot for him.

In 2022, it was considered an injustice when Mateo, who had a 3.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) wasn’t a Gold Glove finalist. That year, he led the American League with 35 steals, and though he hit .only .221, he had 13 home runs and 50 RBIs.

In 2023, Mateo got off to a fine start, hitting .347 through April with six home runs and 17 RBIs, but he finished with a .217 average and just 17 RBIs in the final five months of the season.

Last year, he hit .229 with five homers and 18 RBIs with 13 steals in 15 attempts in 68 games before colliding with Henderson in Miami on July 25^th, ending his season. A month later, he had Tommy John surgery on his left elbow.

The Orioles miss leftfielder Colton Cowser, who along with Mullins, gives the Orioles a strong defensive outfield. Cowser broke his left thumb with an ill-advised slide into first base and may not return until June. Kjerstad will get an extended chance in the outfield; he looks more relaxed at the plate but also misplayed a fly ball in Friday’s loss. Maybe Mateo will be a late-inning defensive replacement in left or right, but for now, his place on the team is a mystery.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.