I guess, technically, the true stretch run in baseball occurs around Sept. 1.
We’re still in the dog days of August – something that has left renowned philosopher William Nathaniel Showalter wondering why it’s not “cat days” of August.
Anyway, it’s crunch time at Camden Yards.
Tuesday marks the beginning of an eight-game homestand, a 16-game jaunt without an off day and 19 consecutive contests against clubs with records above .500. Of their 45 games remaining in the regular season, the Orioles only play 10 against sub-.500 teams, seven versus the Tampa Bay Rays and three versus the Arizona Diamondbacks.
There are some favorable nuances in the remaining schedule – three off days in September, for instance – and some unfavorable things, such as non-division games against a trio of tough opponents: The Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers and National League East power Washington Nationals.
Ultimately, the Orioles control their own destiny. Win at their current pace, win enough in the division and on the road, and get into the playoffs. That, of course, is simplistic. Here are five things the Orioles must do to have a better chance at their third postseason in five years.
The ultimate goal is to get into the playoffs, no matter the manner of entrance. So winning the American League East is not essential. But the division crown is there for the taking. The Orioles play 31 of their final 45 games against division rivals: six versus the Toronto Blue Jays, seven versus the Rays and nine each against the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
The Orioles are currently 26-19 against AL East teams, the best record of the group. The Blue Jays have the second best mark at 27-21. The Blue Jays have won seven of 13 against the Orioles this season with six left to play – three each in Baltimore and Toronto.
Obviously, the Orioles would love to get home-field advantage and force the Blue Jays into a one-game Wild Card matchup. A big help would be beating Toronto in four of the next six head-to-head matchups to win the season series.
The Orioles are great at Camden Yards, better than any team in the AL at 39-17. Only the National League Central’s Chicago Cubs have more home wins than the Orioles.
But that road record, 27-34, is much less desirable. When I recently wrote about the Orioles’ road troubles, one commenter on our Facebook page asked, almost defensively, “How many teams are good on the road?”
The answer: Of the seven clubs currently playing .560 or better baseball, only the Orioles have a losing road record. It’s just one of those baseball truisms – good teams win on the road. The Orioles have 20 games away from Camden Yards remaining, and they need to make the most of them. Not sure what the formula is – more focus? – but it’s imperative to turn more than half of those contests into victories.
This is something the Orioles should have done at the beginning of the season, or when they released Brian Matusz or when Brian Duensing got hurt or when the trade deadline came and went.
Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette tried to acquire a lefty specialist in July, but the price was too hefty. Now, with versatile, right-handed set-up man Darren O’Day on the shelf, adding someone who can retire left-handers late in games becomes more of a need. You can read more about my thoughts on that in this piece.
The Orioles are hoping that 25-year-old rookie Donnie Hart, a 27th round pick in 2013, can do the job; lefties are just 1-for-11 against him in five games (right-handers are 2-for-4 in the big leagues versus Hart).
And maybe Hart can be the guy. But since he has never been in such high-pressure situations in the past, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to add someone who has done it more often on a big stage. There’s still a shot a lefty specialist can be acquired in a trade this month, or maybe Duquette will have to reach into his magic hat and pull out another candidate from parts unknown. But further bolstering the bullpen – the club’s true strength – will go a long way in keeping the Orioles on the playoff path.
This has been the biggest concern all year. Yet since the All-Star Break, the rotation has been solid, certainly enough to put the team in position to win. But, frankly, it’s still a bit of a mystery.
Chris Tillman has been exceptionally consistent and Dylan Bundy has been a savior since being inserted into the rotation. But you’re not being fully honest if you say you know what you’re going to get from Yovani Gallardo, Kevin Gausman and Wade Miley each time on the mound.
Gallardo has thrown quality starts in three of his last five outings, but the occasional, rocky five-inning performance is squarely in his portfolio. Gausman has dominant stuff, but can’t always harness it. And Miley has been OK, good and flat-out awful in his three starts since being traded to the Orioles on July 31.
Everyone wants a formidable rotation; a solid, consistent one would be enough to get the Orioles into the postseason.
It’s probably unfair to single out one player on this list. But this one player has been the Most Valuable Oriole two times in the past three seasons and signed a $161 million contract in the offseason.
Since the All-Star Break, the offense has had its share of missteps; it’s s not just one guy. But Chris Davis has been the poster boy for the struggles. He’s hitting .160 with a .295 on-base percentage and .234 slugging percentage in 27 second-half games – and that includes a recent run in which he had three consecutive, two-hit performances. But Davis followed up that streak with six strikeouts in his last seven at-bats. He’s struck out 162 times (and has 67 walks) in 486 plate appearances.
By now, you know what you get with Davis. And, oftentimes, what you get is a big finish. In his career, he’s best at the end of the season. He’s hit .294 with a .369 on-base percentage and .554 slugging percentage – all career highs for a month — after Sept. 1.
And that’s what the Orioles need this year. Davis missed the end of 2014 – the last time the club made the playoffs – due to his suspension for using the ADHD drug Adderall. He so badly wants to celebrate with his team this year – and if he gets going like he can, the odds of the Orioles having a September celebration is much, much better.
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Dan, your 5th point is the key. It's that simple.
Well, he can't do it himself. But it sure would help the cause if he has a September similar to the one he had in 2015.
It's feast or famine with CD - time to start feasting!
If Davis starts hitting HR's it would go a long way to helping this team. He's been known to carry them for a couple weeks when he gets rolling.
Well, he won't start feasting until that stupid bobblehead is no longer in play. Thank goodness the giveaway is this coming Saturday night. After that, perhaps we can put that preposterous toy in our collective rear view mirrors O's fans! Men in tights have no place on a baseball diamond.