Dean’s Dozen: Our Top 12 Orioles prospects for the 2017 season

If you’re a fan of the Orioles’ minor-league affiliates, I’m sure you already know that Baseball America released its picks for the organization’s Top 10 prospects last week.

Click here if you haven’t seen the list yet.

You’ll notice that my rankings don’t have a lot in common with Baseball America’s. To start, I’m giving you 12 players instead of 10. That’s why we’ve dubbed it “Dean’s Dozen.”

Creative, I know. “Dirty Dozen” was already taken, though.

Anyway, you’ll also see that only two of the Top 10 players are in the same spots in both Baseball America’s rankings and my list.

In fact, I didn’t even put two of the publication’s picks in my Top 12 at all. The magazine lists right-hander Hunter Harvey at No. 4 and left-hander Tanner Scott at No. 10. While I can see the argument for both players, I can’t justify their inclusion this year.

Here’s why:

Although Baseball America referenced a scout who said, “a healthy Harvey showed everything you want in a top-of-the-rotation starter – talent, poise and mound presence,” you need to keep in mind that the 2013 first-round pick (22nd overall) probably won’t pitch in a game again until 2018. Factor in that Harvey has thrown only 12 2/3 innings since July 2014, and there just isn’t enough on-field production for me to include him.

Sure, Harvey still has “prospect” status based on how Baseball America defines it. And he’ll only be 23 years old on Opening Day in 2018, but he has a long road back to prominence.

As for Scott, a wise baseball man once told me: “It doesn’t matter if you throw really hard if you don’t have a compass to help you find out where it’s going.”

Scott, 22, routinely hits triple digits on the radar gun. As a left-hander, that’s obviously something that will get you noticed. So he deserves to be mentioned in every discussion about the organization’s top prospects.

But he issued 57 walks in 64 1/3 innings between Frederick and Bowie in 2016. In his three-year career, the 2014 sixth-round selection has walked 99 batters in 129 2/3 innings. To put that in perspective, Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw has issued only 84 free passes in 580 innings over the past three seasons.

Obviously, that’s not a fair comparison. I get that. You can’t measure arguably the greatest left-handed starter of this generation against a minor league prospect with a power arm and control issues.

But that’s exactly my point. Maybe it’d be in Scott’s best interest to dial back a few miles per hour off the fastball in order to find the plate more frequently. Maybe that’s the key to making it to the major leagues. His heater would still be in the mid-90s. That’s just my take.

Now, let’s get to the inaugural edition of “Dean’s Dozen.”

No. 12

DJ Stewart, OF

2016 Statistics: .254, 10 HRs, 55 RBIs, 26 SBs, 24 2Bs in 121 games (Delmarva/Frederick)
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In 213 at-bats with Delmarva to start the season, the 2015 first-round pick (25th overall) batted .230. Stewart, who will turn 23 later this month, struggled most against left-handers, hitting only .185 average in 54 at-bats. Still, the organization decided to push him at the All-Star Break with a promotion to Frederick. And that’s where he turned things around. In 201 at-bats with the Keys, Stewart hit .279. But, most important, the Florida State product raised his average against lefties to .274 in 62 at-bats. In the Arizona Fall League, Stewart earned a spot in the “Fall Stars Game” that will be played this Saturday. Through Monday, he is batting .220 (11-for-50) with 11 walks in the AFL. Stewart hasn’t dominated to this point in his professional career, but he knows how to get on base and can make some things happen once he’s there (26 stolen bases in 35 attempts in 2016).

No. 11

Austin Hays, OF

2016 Statistics: .336, 4 HRs, 21 RBIs, 9 2Bs in 38 games (Aberdeen)
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Hays, 21, only played in half of Aberdeen’s 75 games in 2016 because of a wrist injury. But the 2016 third-round selection showed his potential during his limited time in the lineup. Hays’ .336 average would have won the New York-Penn League batting title if he had enough at-bats to qualify. And, even though he missed so much time, Hays still led the IronBirds with four home runs and tied for the most total bases on the team (72). As Baseball America noted in its scouting report, Hays “has a chance to hit for average and power, showing the ability to hit to all fields.” Primarily used in right field in 2016, Baseball America noted that the organization could play him more in center field in 2017. Regardless of where he plays, Hays’ bat will be in the heart of the lineup at one of the club’s full-season affiliates next summer.

No. 10

Chris Lee, LHP

2016 Statistics: 5-0, 2.98 ERA, 19 Ks, 13 BBs in 51 1/3 innings (Bowie)
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In addition to closer Zach Britton, the Orioles used eight left-handed pitchers in 2016. Six of those eight – all except Brian Matusz (disabled list) and T.J. McFarland – didn’t start the season with the major league club. When you consider how strong Lee, 24, started at Bowie and all of those moves, it’s almost certain that he would have received a promotion if he hadn’t suffered a strained shoulder/lat muscle in late May. Nevertheless, Lee didn’t pitch again after going eight innings on May 23. Although he visited with Dr. James Andrews in the fall, the Orioles expect him to be ready by spring training. It’s a situation worth monitoring, but if Lee can return to form, there’s always room in the bullpen or back of the rotation for a good lefty.

No. 9

Ofelky Peralta, RHP

2016 Statistics: 8-5, 4.01 ERA, 101 Ks, 60 BBs in 103 1/3 innings (Delmarva)
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Peralta, who won’t turn 20 until after Opening Day, 2017, broke through in his first opportunity with a full-season affiliate. Before winning eight games with Delmarva this past year, he hadn’t picked up a professional win in parts of two seasons with the club’s Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League affiliates. Still, as regular fans of the minor leagues know, it’s not about wins and losses. Instead, it’s about the development of the individual players. And Peralta took a big step forward in 2016. With a mid-90s fastball that has him on the path to the majors, he still needs to develop his secondary pitches. For now, I’d like to see what Peralta can do as an encore to this year.

No. 8

Jesus Liranzo, RHP

2016 Statistics: 1-1, 1.87 ERA, 66 Ks, 27 BBs in 53 innings (Delmarva/Bowie)
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The Orioles have received a lot of criticism for their international scouting over the years, but they could wind up with a steal in Liranzo, who will turn 22 in March. After the Atlanta Braves released Liranzo in June 2013, the Orioles signed the then-18-year-old to a minor league deal a month later. He missed the 2014 season because of an injury and finally made his way to a full-season squad in 2016. After compiling a 1.05 ERA in 16 appearances for Delmarva, Liranzo – who can reach the upper 90s with his fastball – jumped to Bowie in late July. He was 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 11 games for the Baysox. Liranzo made one appearance in the Arizona Fall League before leaving due to a back strain. The Orioles will need to add Liranzo to the 40-man roster or they’ll risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft.

No. 7

Jomar Reyes, 3B

2016 Statistics: .228, 10 HRs, 51 RBIs, 16 2Bs in 126 games (Frederick)
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Although Reyes doubled his home run total from 2015, he had an overall rough year statistically with Frederick. But it’s important to remember that Reyes, who won’t turn 20 until February, spent the season as the youngest player in the Carolina League. I’m not ready to give up on Reyes yet, but he’ll need to hit better against right-handers (.213 in 338 at-bats in 2016). Baseball America noted that “recognizing breaking balls was the key to his struggles with right-handers” this past season, but the publication said he made some adjustments with hitting coordinator Jeff Manto during the fall instructional league. A return to the Keys appears likely to start 2017. Reyes will need to show that he can get on base consistently – he had an abysmal .271 on-base percentage this past year – in order to keep his status as one of the organization’s most promising position players.

No. 6

Cedric Mullins, OF

2016 Statistics: .273, 14 HRs, 55 RBIs, 37 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 30 SBs in 124 games (Delmarva)
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You probably haven’t heard much about Mullins, who just turned 22 last month, other than what you’ve read on BaltimoreBaseball.com. But regular readers know I’m bullish on the 2015 13th-round pick. He earned the South Atlantic League’s Player of the Week award in the final week of the regular season and finished among the league leaders in several offensive categories – including second in triples (10) and extra-base hits (61), as well as third in hits (141), doubles (37) and runs scored (79). One thing stands out as a potential obstacle on Mullins’ path to the major leagues: his size (5 feet 8, 175 pounds). But the Campbell University product’s defensive skills and speed (30 stolen bases in 36 attempts in 2016), as well as the fact that he’s a switch-hitter, all play in his favor. Keep an eye on Mullins and whether his ability to fill up the stat sheet continues. He’s a real sleeper with promise.

No. 5

Cody Sedlock, RHP

2016 Statistics: 0-1, 3.00 ERA, 25 Ks, 13 BBs in 27 innings (Aberdeen)
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The Orioles took things slowly with their top 2016 pick (27th overall) to kick off his professional career. Sedlock, 21, pitched three innings in each of his nine starts with Aberdeen this past season, and he only threw more than 50 pitches twice. He held opponents to one run or less in seven of those appearances. While ranking the Illinois product as the No. 5 prospect in the New York-Penn League in 2016, Baseball America said, “Sedlock’s frame and potential for three plus pitches give him a high ceiling as a starter at the next level.” His fastball routinely reaches into the upper 90s and features a lot of movement. I’d like to see more of Sedlock before making a concrete prediction about his future, but it’s encouraging to see him make a successful first step up the ladder.

No. 4

Keegan Akin, LHP

2016 Statistics: 0-1, 1.04 ERA, 29 Ks, 7 BBs in 26 innings (Aberdeen)
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It’s going to be great to watch the friendly competition between Akin, who will turn 22 in April, and Sedlock over the next several years. Picked in the second round of this year’s draft, Akin seemed to grab the initial upper hand based on his performance at Aberdeen. The Western Michigan product, who pitched three innings in his final eight starts after throwing two innings in his professional debut, didn’t allow a run in his last 20 innings in 2016. As a left-hander with solid control, Akin could make a quick move through the organization. But as Baseball America mentioned while listing him as the No. 12 prospect in the New York-Penn League for the past season, to remain in a starting role, “he’ll need to continue to refine his command and develop his secondary stuff.”

No. 3

Ryan Mountcastle, SS

2016 Statistics: .281, 10 HRs, 51 RBIs, 28 2Bs in 115 games (Delmarva)
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Mountcastle, who will turn 20 in February, couldn’t have started off much worse in his first opportunity with a full-season team. The 2015 first-round selection (36th overall) batted .162 with 22 strikeouts and just four extra-base hits in 18 games in April. But he turned things around over the next two months, hitting .337 (57-for-169) with four home runs, 13 doubles and 20 RBIs in 44 games through the end of June. While some observers believe Mountcastle’s arm isn’t strong enough for him to remain at shortstop, the club appears committed to him there for now. Still, he made 21 errors in 2016, so it’s clear that his defense is the biggest concern currently. Perhaps a switch to another less-demanding position could allow Mountcastle to continue to dominate at the plate as he progresses through the organization.

No. 2

Trey Mancini, 1B

2016 Statistics: .282, 20 HRs, 68 RBIs, 26 2Bs in 142 games (Bowie/Norfolk); .357, 3 HRs, 5 RBIs in 5 games (Orioles)
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With a home run in three of his first four major league games, the 2013 eighth-round pick gave Orioles fans a glimpse of his power potential this past season. It was the perfect ending for Mancini – who will turn 25 in March – after he started the year with three home runs in his first four games with Bowie (and seven homers in his first 17 games overall). Before his promotion to the Orioles, the Notre Dame product hit 20 home runs while splitting the year between the Baysox and Norfolk. However, he only had three after the International League All-Star break in July. Mancini’s bat will carry him to the major leagues, but it’s unclear if that’ll happen for good to start the 2017 season. With Chris Davis seemingly locked in at first base for the foreseeable future, Mancini’s status likely depends on what the Orioles do with pending free agents such as Mark Trumbo and Pedro Alvarez, and what other offseason moves the team makes.

No. 1

Chance Sisco, C

2016 Statistics: .317, 6 HRs, 51 RBIs, 28 2Bs in 116 games (Bowie/Norfolk)
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By all accounts, the 2013 second-round selection will enter next season as the top prospect in the organization. Sisco, who will turn 22 in February, has done everything he can offensively to prove that he belongs in that top spot. He’ll likely begin the year in Norfolk, where he went 4-for-16 with two home runs and seven RBIs in four games – including a grand slam and five RBIs in his Triple-A debut – to end this past season. Before that, Sisco led the Eastern League with an impressive .406 on-base percentage in 112 games with the Baysox. The biggest concerns for Sisco’s future revolve around his defense. According to Baseball America, “his arm strength grades a tick below average, and he needs to continue to improve his footwork and transfer to help him throw out runners.” Because of that, Sisco probably won’t make his major league debut until at least the midpoint of the 2017 season.