Looking at 10 free agent targets that could fit for the Orioles

Free agency is supposed to be one of those times when fans can dream big about what their teams may do.

So, if you like, go ahead and contemplate Dexter Fowler at the top of the Orioles’ order, or Edwin Encarnacion launching bombs in orange-and-black at Camden Yards or Kenley Jansen serving as half of the most dangerous closer combination on the planet.

Once you’re done with that come back to me. And we’ll talk a realistic approach to the Orioles and free agency.

The club needs to improve at right field, catcher and designated hitter – assuming Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters and Pedro Alvarez sign elsewhere – and they could use another solid bullpen arm and a top-of-the-rotation starter.

Well, there is no ace available on the free-agent market, and the Orioles don’t have the kind of prospect package required to land an ace via a trade without damaging the current roster (think Jonathan Schoop, Dylan Bundy and more).

Plus, unless I’m way off here, the Orioles aren’t going to spend a lot of money this winter. With existing contracts and raises to arbitration-eligible players, the 2017 payroll is expected to surpass $150 million and set a franchise record. It’s hard to imagine that gets pumped up significantly with big-ticket free agent purchases.

So, here’s a more realistic look at some free agent targets for the Orioles, and why they make sense. I numbered them from one to 10, and even threw you dreamers a bone at the top of the list.

1. OF Dexter Fowler
Opening Day Age: 31
2016 Stats: .276 average, .393 on-base percentage, .447 slugging, 13 homers, 13 stolen bases, 551 plate appearances

Skinny: I didn’t put this one here to tease or depress you. The fact is Fowler is by far the best fit for the Orioles’ needs in 2017. He’s a strong defender, a leadoff hitter, and an on-base machine. He’s coming off a great season with the World Champion Chicago Cubs in which he likely would have had gaudier stats if he hadn’t missed a month with a hamstring injury.

Plus, we know the Orioles like him. They reportedly had signed him to a three-year, $33 million deal in February before everything went loopy and Fowler re-signed with the Cubs. That one-year move paid off, because he’s now in line for a four-year deal worth a lot more annually.

There is some question that there might be hard feelings from last year’s negotiations and that’s why Fowler won’t sign with the Orioles. Don’t believe it. Millions of dollars have a way of softening all hard feelings. The reason Fowler isn’t going to sign with the Orioles is that they aren’t going to offer him enough of those millions. He’s one of the most coveted free agents this season, and the Orioles aren’t going to get into – or win – a bidding war.

Bottom line: Fowler has to top this list because he should be the Orioles’ Priority No. 1 and would immediately strengthen the team’s primary weakness. I just can’t envision it happening.

2. C Nick Hundley
Opening Day Age: 33
Stats: .260/.320/.439, 10 homers, 48 RBIs, 317 plate appearances

Skinny: Assuming the Orioles don’t bring back Matt Wieters, and, based on finances, it’s unlikely they will, Hundley is the best option as a stop-gap behind the plate. He was solid for the Orioles in 2014, when he split time with Caleb Joseph as they filled in for an injured Wieters.

Hundley left to sign a two-year deal with the Colorado Rockies; the Orioles wanted him back, but not on a two-year deal. Well, after two solid seasons in which he battled some injuries, Hundley is a free agent again. And he’ll likely be in the market for another two-year deal.

In one sense, it seems unlikely the Orioles would do that, considering they weren’t willing in 2014. But Joseph is coming off a disastrous year with the bat and top prospect Chance Sisco doesn’t appear ready defensively. Hundley would provide some insurance while reuniting with Orioles’ catching instructor John Russell, with whom Hundley built a strong relationship.

Bottom line: Hundley would soften the departure of Wieters, but given the weak catching market, he’s going to command a multi-year deal. And the Orioles may not be willing to do that.

3. OF Angel Pagan
Opening Day Age: 35
Stats: .277/.331/.418, 12 homers, 15 steals, 543 plate appearances

Skinny: As I wrote earlier this week, Pagan fits perfectly for the Orioles given what is expected to be an offseason of financial restraint for them in free agency. He turns 36 in July, and can’t command anything close to the four-year, $40 million deal he received from the San Francisco Giants before the 2013 season.

Pagan’s not particularly durable, playing more than 130 games just once since his excellent 2012 campaign. But, if healthy, he can do everything the Orioles need in a starting outfielder: The switch-hitter gets on base (a career .330 OBP), steals bases (15 for 19 in 2016), plays solid defense (mainly left these days, but could play right), and can lead off.

Bottom line: If the Orioles can get him on a one-year deal or a one-year deal with a 2018 option, they should do it. He’s not a game-changer, but he is the kind of player they don’t have.

4. OF Carlos Gomez
Opening Day Age: 31
Stats: .231/.298/.384, 13 homers, 18 stolen bases, 453 plate appearances

Skinny: No free agent is more head-scratching than Gomez. He could be a boon or a bust. He batted .210 and struck out 100 times in 85 games for the Houston Astros last year before they finally released him. He then went to the Texas Rangers, hit .284 with a .362 on-base percentage and .543 slugging percentage in 33 games, to breathe life into his free-agent campaign.

If someone pays him like he’s the player that succeeded in Texas down the stretch, then he’s too rich for the Orioles. But if his market grows cold, he’d definitely be worth a flier. One point of caution, even in his best years, he’s a free-swinger who doesn’t get on base much. His career OBP is .312. There also have been some questions about his maturity along the way, but he has plenty of people in the game that will vouch for him. (Fun fact: He was once traded by Minnesota to Milwaukee for J.J. Hardy).

Bottom line: The Orioles may wait to see if other options dry up and if Gomez’s market doesn’t develop. It probably will, and he’ll go elsewhere, but he’s an ideal one-year signing.

5. OF/DH Matt Holliday
Opening Day Age: 37
Stats: .246/.322/.461, 20 homers, 62 RBIs, 426 plate appearances

Skinny: All free agents can control their destiny and choose which team they want to join. But perhaps no one else in this class has more control than Holliday. He doesn’t need to keep playing. He’s had a great career. He has won a World Series ring. He’s made nearly $150 million in salary. His penultimate at-bat was a homer.

Once exceptionally durable, Holliday was limited to just 183 games in the past two seasons due to injuries. If he wants to keep going, his best bet is probably as a primary DH. If he wants to go that route, and leaves the NL, the Orioles and Camden Yards would be a good landing spot. But so would Yankee Stadium and several other hitter-friendly places.

He has the reputation of being a quality teammate and likely would mesh well in the Orioles’ veteran clubhouse. And, when healthy, he hits, hits for power and gets on-base – his lifetime OBP is .382 and his lifetime slugging percentage is .515. Although Orioles manager Buck Showalter likes having DH flexibility, he has employed DH-only players in the past (Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, Pedro Alvarez).

Bottom line: If Holliday wants to continue his career as a DH, the Orioles would be on board. But that’s an ‘if’ only he can answer.

6. C Chris Iannetta
Opening Day Age: 33 (34 on April 8)
Stats: .210/.303/.329, 7 homers, 24 RBIs, 338 plate appearances

Skinny: There are plenty of reserve catchers available for the picking, so you can almost flip a coin. Iannetta has some pop in his bat – he has 107 career homers in 11 big-league seasons – but otherwise isn’t much of a hitter. His career batting average is .229 and he’s batted over .240 just once since 2008.

He’s a solid veteran backstop who has the reputation for handling a pitching staff. He has a solid arm, throwing out about 31 percent of would-be basestealers last year for the Seattle Mariners (his career mark is 25 percent). He came up with the Colorado Rockies and has caught Orioles’ right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez more than any other backstop (Jimenez has an ERA of 3.53 in 64 games caught by Iannetta.)

Bottom line: If the Orioles are looking for a one-year, stop-gap catcher, this is a solid option.

7. OF Michael Bourn
Opening Day Age: 34
Stats: .264/.314/.371, five homers, 15 steals, 413 plate appearances

Skinny: It was definitely a bizarre year for the speedy veteran who was released in April, released again in May and traded in August. He joined the Orioles on Aug. 31 in a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks for minor leaguer Jason Heinrich.

Bourn played well down the stretch for the Orioles, batting .283 with a .358 on-base percentage in 24 games. He also stole two bases, which placed him in a second-place tie for the team lead in steals (Seriously. Joey Rickard led the club with four steals).

Bourn showed he has something left and can contribute to a contender. The question is whether he is better suited to be a fourth outfielder, which is a spot Rickard may snag if he is completely healthy. The Orioles would probably like a little better, all-around upgrade to start in right field, but Bourn probably is in the club’s price range and fit in seamlessly in the clubhouse.

Bottom line: Bourn doesn’t solve all the needs the Orioles have in right field, but he’d be an ideal fourth/fifth outfielder, if that’s what the club wants.

8. LHP Boone Logan
Opening Day Age: 32
Stats: 2-5, 3.69 ERA, 27 hits, 20 walks, 57 strikeouts, 46 1/3 innings, 66 games

Skinny: We all know the Orioles’ biggest concern is getting the rotation to perform consistently well. Yet I’ve included no starting pitchers from a week free-agent class on this list. That’s mainly because, right now, the club already has six candidates for five rotation spots – and that doesn’t include minor-league swingmen Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright or newly acquired Logan Verrett. I could see the Orioles grabbing a starting candidate deep into the offseason as a value buy, but it likely won’t be a target this early in the winter.

So, if the Orioles do improve their pitching staff, I’d imagine they might attempt to strengthen a strength and bolster their bullpen (which is also crowded, by the way). If that’s the case, Logan makes great sense; the Orioles coveted him last summer, but the Colorado Rockies didn’t deal him away. He’s a quality, veteran lefty, compiling a 3.69 ERA while pitching at Coors Field (he actually was much better at home than on the road in 2016).

Although he would provide insurance if lefty specialist Donnie Hart stumbles in 2017, Logan also had success against right-handed hitters last year. And Showalter loves relievers he can keep in for a full inning.

Bottom line: There will be some competition for Logan’s services and the Orioles probably won’t make lefty relief a priority, but he’s a good name to watch.

9. DH Pedro Alvarez
Opening Day Age: 30
Stats: .249/.322/.504, 22 homers, 49 RBIs, 376 plate appearances

Skinny: Alvarez was an afterthought last winter, finally agreeing to a one-year deal with the Orioles in March. He seemed to be a redundant piece with his power bat, limited defense and high strikeout potential. And he really didn’t heat up until May. But Alvarez had a solid summer, and with Mark Trumbo likely leaving for a big payday, Alvarez becomes an interesting re-sign.

You can read more about that here, but if the Orioles don’t want to spend a whole lot of money and still covet power, Alvarez is intriguing. His teammates enjoyed his low-key presence and he helped carry the club temporarily with a home-run barrage in the summer.

Bottom line: Alvarez looked to be a one-and-done, but I’m not so sure now. He seemed to be comfortable in Baltimore, and the Orioles would like him back on a reasonable deal.

10. OF Michael Saunders
Opening Day Age: 30
Stats: .253/.338/.478, 24 homers, 57 RBIs, 558 plate appearances

Skinny: Saunders is one of those all-around talents that has had trouble staying healthy and putting it all together. He finally was on his way last year, batting .298 and hitting 16 homers for the Toronto Blue Jays in the first half. He made his first All-Star team and looked to be compiling a monster walk year before free agency. But he sputtered in the second half, batting just .178 and driving in 15 runs in 58 second-half games.

With the rough second half, he may have lost millions in free agency. But that also may have put him within the Orioles’ price range. The left-hander has mashed during his career at Camden Yards (.305/.376/.756 in 21 games and 93 plate appearances in Baltimore), so he’s definitely had their attention over the years.

The problem is he likely won’t come cheaply, strikes out a lot (157 times in 490 at-bats in 2016) and is an injury risk.

Bottom line: Maybe the Orioles can afford him, but plan a week for that physical to be approved.