2017 AL East Positional Rankings: Rotations, bullpens and managers

It’s time for the grand finale: part three of my series comparing the AL East teams at every position.

Parts One and Two covered the position players; now let’s look at the pitching staffs and managers.

Rotation

1. Blue Jays

2. Red Sox

3. Rays

4. Yankees

5. Orioles

If the Red Sox had a healthy David Price to headline their rotation with newly acquired ace Chris Sale and defending AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, they’d rank No. 1 in this category. But Price’s elbow injury, which will sideline him until at least May and could become more a serious setback, suddenly has Boston’s rotation depth looking a bit weak. Behind Sale and Porcello, the Red Sox will need bounce-back seasons from Eduardo Rodriguez and Drew Pomeranz and a return to full health for knuckleballer Steven Wright.

With the Sox knocked out of the top ranking, the honors go instead to the Blue Jays, who have strong big league pitchers in all five rotation spots. Toronto’s 3.64 starters’ ERA in 2016 was the best in the AL by a large margin; no other team was below 4.08. All of their key rotation members last year (Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ and Marcus Stroman) are returning in 2017, joined by Oriole-killer Francisco Liriano.

At No. 3 is Tampa Bay. Stalwart starting pitchers have been a Rays’ tradition for the last decade, and they’ve got several excellent arms in Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, Jake Odorizzi and Blake Snell. Another Rays’ tradition, though, is trading away their stalwart starting pitchers, so it’d be surprising if all four are still in the rotation by the end of the season.

The Orioles’ and Yankees’ rotations lag behind the others. Both are filled with question marks. Can the Orioles count on any consistency from enigmatic Ubaldo Jimenez and last year’s ineffective trade acquisition, Wade Miley? Will Dylan Bundy take a step up in his first full year in the rotation? For the Yankees, will strikeout artist Michael Pineda rebound from his 4.82 ERA last year? Does 36-year-old CC Sabathia have anything left, and who will fill out the back of the rotation?

Ultimately, I give the Yankees the slight edge because they have one thing the Orioles don’t: a bona fide ace, the stellar Masahiro Tanaka. Kevin Gausman could grow into the ace role for the Orioles, but Tanaka is the superior pitcher right now. And the shoulder injury suffered by Chris Tillman — who figures to be out until at least May — has created a void in the Orioles’ rotation.

Bullpen

1. Orioles

2. Yankees

3. Red Sox

4. Blue Jays

5. Rays

A hallmark of the Orioles’ success during the past five years has been their tremendous bullpen, and that doesn’t figure to change in 2017. They’re bringing back every key member of their 2016 relief crew that posted an AL-best 3.40 ERA, led by the majors’ best closer last year, Zach Britton. The return of a healthy Darren O’Day to join Britton, Brad Brach and Mychal Givens gives the club plenty of weapons.

With the free-agent return of fireballing closer Aroldis Chapman, who will be set up by All-Star Dellin Betances, the Yankees have reunited two pillars of their three-pronged late-inning tandem from 2016. They won’t be getting Andrew Miller back from Cleveland anytime soon, though. The Red Sox, too, boast a hard-throwing closer in Craig Kimbrel, although newly acquired setup man Tyler Thornburg has been sidelined with shoulder weakness.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen was a liability down the stretch in 2016 and is trying to retool with veterans on the wrong side of 30, including Joe Smith and J.P. Howell (both 33), along with returning setup man Jason Grilli (40). At least their closer, 22-year-old Roberto Osuna, is plenty young and effective. The Rays, meanwhile, are having trouble cobbling together a bullpen in front of All-Star closer Alex Colome, and they absorbed a blow when setup man Brad Boxberger suffered a lat injury in spring training.

Manager

1. Buck Showalter, Orioles

2. Joe Girardi, Yankees

3. John Farrell, Red Sox

4. John Gibbons, Blue Jays

5. Kevin Cash, Rays

There aren’t many statistics that can be used to rank managers, except maybe this: Since 2012, the Orioles have outperformed their Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections by a whopping 66 wins. That’s a testament to Showalter, who consistently pushes the right buttons and squeezes every last drop of talent from his club, finding a way to overcome any limitations the team might have on paper.

Girardi has had a winning season in each of his nine years at the Yankees’ helm. That’s easy enough to do when your roster has some of the most talented players money can buy, but he also had success with a relatively young squad after the Yankees’ midseason fire sale in 2016. Farrell, meanwhile, is an enigma. In his four years managing the Red Sox, his club has finished first place twice and last place twice, with nothing in between. That’s probably just the randomness of baseball and isn’t a particular reflection on Farrell.

The Blue Jays’ Gibbons has achieved plenty of on-field success with two consecutive ALCS appearances, but his teams seem a bit undisciplined and have a habit of winding up in on-field altercations. For the Rays, Cash has a 148-176 record in two seasons and hasn’t distinguished himself as a manager.