Dean’s Dozen: Our updated O’s prospects list heading into Thursday’s minor league start

The 2017 season is finally underway.

Well, at least at the major league level. The minor leaguers will kick things off Thursday.

Three of the Orioles’ four full-season affiliates start on the road this year.

Only High-A Frederick – which plays Carolina at 7 p.m. Thursday – will begin at home. Triple-A Norfolk (at Charlotte) and Low-A Delmarva (at Greenville) will head south, while Double-A Bowie (at Akron) travels to the Midwest.

The Tides return to Harbor Park on Monday for their home opener against Gwinnett at 6:35 p.m., while the Baysox and Shorebirds will remain on the road until next Thursday, when they host Harrisburg and Hagerstown, respectively.

With the start of a new minor league season, we’ll kick off the second year of “The Dean Jones Report” on BaltimoreBaseball.com on Tuesday.

Each week, I’ll track the performances of the Orioles minor leaguers on my “Dean’s Dozen” list. Regular readers will realize this is slightly different than last year, when I used Baseball America’s rankings. I’ll categorize each of the players in the weekly report as a rising stock (bullish) or a falling stock (bearish), based on their recent performance.

I also will highlight a handful of additional players divided into two categories – surging and falling. These players could change from week to week, depending on who’s hot and who’s not in the Orioles’ minor league system.

For now, though, let’s introduce you to the 2017 preseason “Dean’s Dozen.” Back in November, I put together a preliminary version of the rankings.

I’ve kept a lot of the same players from my initial list, but have also made a few changes.

For one, I’ve removed first baseman (and now outfielder) Trey Mancini since he started the year in the majors. If he goes back to Norfolk, I’ll get him in an updated Dean’s Dozen. But for now, he’s off – and I’m sure Orioles fans would prefer if I don’t have to add him back.

I’ve also dropped Frederick infielder Jomar Reyes from my list. While he’s only 20 years old, he took a step back in 2016 – batting .228 with a dreadful .271 on-base percentage in 126 games – and will return to the Keys for a second straight Opening Day. If he’s able to improve at the start of the year, Reyes could jump back into my mix by the All-Star break.

Now, let’s get to the updated list:

No. 1: Chance Sisco, C, Norfolk

2016 statistics: .317, 6 HRs, 51 RBIs, 28 2Bs in 116 games (Bowie/Norfolk)

MILB.com Player Page

Sisco, 22, enters the season as the Orioles’ top prospect on most experts’ lists. The 2013 second-round pick batted .320 with four home runs and 44 RBIs in 112 games with the Baysox in 2016. Most important, he led the Eastern League with an impressive .406 on-base percentage. Sisco, who batted .292 in 17 games with the Orioles this spring, ended last season with two home runs in four games for Norfolk, where he’ll begin this year.

No. 2: Ryan Mountcastle, SS, Frederick

2016 statistics: .281, 10 HRs, 51 RBIs, 28 2Bs in 115 games (Delmarva)

MILB.com Player Page

The 2015 first-round selection (36th overall) bounced back after a horrid start to finish the his first full-season campaign with a respectable stat line. Mountcastle, 20, only hit .162 with 22 strikeouts and just four extra-base hits in 18 games in April. But he batted .337 (57-for-169) with four home runs, 13 doubles and 20 RBIs in 44 games over the next two months. He’s making the climb to Frederick to start the 2017 season.

No. 3: Keegan Akin, LHP, Frederick

2016 statistics: 0-1, 1.04 ERA, 29 Ks, 7 BBs in 26 innings (Aberdeen)

MILB.com Player Page

Over the next few years, Orioles fans will enjoy watching the likely back-and-forth competition between the 22-year-old left-hander and right-hander Cody Sedlock. The Orioles picked Akin in the second round of last year’s draft after choosing Sedlock in the first round. But Akin actually had better numbers in his professional debut, holding opponents scoreless over his final 20 innings in 2016. Most analysts still list Sedlock ahead of Akin in the organizational rankings, but I’m giving a slight edge to Akin for now since he’s left-handed. He could move quickly through the organization.

No. 4: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Frederick

2016 statistics: 0-1, 3.00 ERA, 25 Ks, 13 BBs in 27 innings (Aberdeen)

MILB.com Player Page

The Orioles’ top pick in last year’s draft (27th overall) pitched three innings in each of his nine starts with Aberdeen to kick off his professional career. Sedlock, who will turn 22 in June, only threw more than 50 pitches twice. As I said in November, “I’d like to see more of Sedlock before making a concrete prediction about his future, but it’s encouraging to see him make a successful first step up the ladder.” That’s still true, but then he took more two steps up the ladder in the offseason. He’ll start – along with Akin – at Frederick in 2017.

No. 5: Chris Lee, LHP, Norfolk

2016 statistics: 5-0, 2.98 ERA, 19 Ks, 13 BBs in 51 1/3 innings (Bowie)

MILB.com Player Page

In the initial Dean’s Dozen back in November, I listed the 24-year-old left-hander at No. 10. But that’s mainly because Lee hadn’t pitched since late May – and only made eight appearances all year – due to a strained shoulder/lat muscle that required a visit to Dr. James Andrews in the fall. The 2011 fourth-round pick, whom the Orioles acquired from the Houston Astros in a May 2015 trade, proved he was healthy this spring. Lee entered the discussion – at least briefly – for a starting role with the Orioles to break camp as he went 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 13 innings during Grapefruit League play. He’s still a candidate, though likely a longshot, for the Orioles’ fifth starter spot, which will be filled April 15.

No. 6: Cedric Mullins, OF, Bowie

2016 statistics: .273, 14 HRs, 55 RBIs, 37 2Bs, 10 3Bs, 30 SBs in 124 games (Delmarva)

MILB.com Player Page

If you’ve been following my reports over the past year, you know I’m bullish on the 2015 13th-round selection. Mullins, 22, earned a spot on the inaugural BaltimoreBaseball.com Orioles Minor League All-Star Squad after filling up the stat sheet at Delmarva. He batted .273 and reached double digits in home runs, doubles, triples and stolen bases. Plus, Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette mentioned Mullins’ emergence when explaining why the club decided not to deal away another prospect in order to keep Rule 5 pick Aneury Tavarez in the organization. Mullins will be tested with a jump over Frederick to Bowie.

No. 7: Jesus Liranzo, RHP, Bowie

2016 statistics: 1-1, 1.87 ERA, 66 Ks, 27 BBs in 53 innings (Delmarva/Bowie)

MILB.com Player Page

In our BaltimoreBaseball.com season predictions on Opening Day, I picked Liranzo as my “biggest surprise” for the Orioles. The club sent the 22-year-old right-hander back to Bowie after he had a 3.38 ERA and nine strikeouts in eight innings during the Grapefruit League this spring. Liranzo, who signed with the Orioles after he was released by the Atlanta Braves in June 2013, jumped from Delmarva to Bowie midway through last season after he compiled a 1.05 ERA in 34 1/3 innings for the Shorebirds. He’ll return to the Baysox in 2017, but I believe he’ll make an impact in the major league bullpen by September.

No. 8: Stefan Crichton, RHP, Norfolk

2016 statistics: 2-6, 3.73 ERA, 61 Ks, 26 BBs in 72 1/3 innings (Bowie)

MILB.com Player Page

One of two new additions from my preliminary rankings in November, the 2013 23rd-round pick has moved quietly through the organization over the past four seasons. Crichton, 25, made 48 appearances – including four starts – for Bowie in 2016. Then, he went 1-0 with a 5.54 ERA in 13 innings for Peoria in the Arizona Fall League. But Crichton’s breakthrough came in the spring, when he pitched eight scoreless innings and went 4-for-4 in save opportunities during the Grapefruit League. He struck out seven batters and only gave up four hits. If Crichton keeps pitching well, you can expect him to get a call from the O’s at some point in 2017.

No. 9: Ofelky Peralta, RHP, Frederick

2016 statistics: 8-5, 4.01 ERA, 101 Ks, 60 BBs in 103 1/3 innings (Delmarva)

MILB.com Player Page

Believe it or not, Peralta is the youngest player in Dean’s Dozen. He won’t turn 20 until April 20 – two months and two days after Mountcastle. He caught my attention during his first shot with a full-season affiliate in 2016. The Dominican Republic native struck out roughly one batter per inning and found success with a mid-90s fastball. With a lot of other big names at Frederick to start 2017 – including Akin and Sedlock alongside him in the rotation – Peralta can continue to work on his secondary stuff without much pressure or attention.

No. 10: Austin Hays, OF, Frederick

2016 statistics: .336, 4 HRs, 21 RBIs, 9 2Bs in 38 games (Aberdeen)

MILB.com Player Page

A wrist injury kept the 2016 third-round selection out of roughly half of the IronBirds’ 75 games last year. But when Hays – who will turn 22 in July – was in the lineup, he showed his potential. Hays tied outfielder Cole Billingsley for the most total bases on the team (72) and would have led the New York-Penn League in hitting (.336) if he had enough at-bats to qualify. With a move to Frederick to start 2017, Hays likely will play a lot in center field.

No. 11: DJ Stewart, OF, Bowie

2016 statistics: .254, 10 HRs, 55 RBIs, 26 SBs, 24 2Bs in 121 games (Delmarva/Frederick)

MILB.com Player Page

As regular readers know, I wouldn’t have included the 2015 first-round pick (25th overall) in my rankings at last year’s All-Star break. Stewart, 23, batted just .230 – including .185 in 54 at-bats against left-handers – during 62 games for Delmarva in the first half of the 2016 season. Despite Stewart’s struggles, the Orioles pushed him to Frederick, where he hit .279 overall and raised his average versus lefties to .274. Listed at 6 feet, 230 pounds, Stewart has deceptive speed that helped him steal 26 bases in 2016. In Bowie, he’ll be one of the main attractions for a team that lost an Eastern League-worst 86 games last year.

No. 12: Gabriel Ynoa, RHP, Norfolk

2016 statistics: 12-5, 3.97 ERA, 78 Ks, 40 BBs in 154 1/3 innings (Triple-A Las Vegas); 1-0, 6.38 ERA, 17 Ks, 7 BBs in 18 1/3 innings (Mets)

MILB.com Player Page

Could Ynoa be the latest steal in Duquette’s tenure? The Orioles acquired the right-hander, who will turn 24 in May, from the New York Mets just before spring training started in exchange for cash considerations. The Dominican Republic native made a strong first impression on his new organization, going 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 innings during the Grapefruit League. Although the club optioned Ynoa to Norfolk during its final roster cutdown over the weekend, he’ll likely spend some time with the major league club in 2017. Like Lee, Ynoa remains a candidate for the Orioles’ April 15 start. Ynoa may be the favorite, though Jayson Aquino and Mike Wright could make a case, too.