At least that’s what we think – or hope – it was.
Anyway, Fourth of July is over, and it’s time to sit quietly in the Tap Room and talk baseball. I’ll type softly.
There’s been a whole lot of talk about whether the Orioles should be sellers at this month’s nonwaiver trade deadline if they continue to struggle. There’s a sense that the Orioles’ competitive window with this current group is closing and they should deal some of their stars before they leave for free agency after the 2018 season.
I don’t foresee a fire sale happening this month, frankly. At least I don’t see the Orioles truly being sellers. They might send away a piece or two of limited value for a younger piece of limited value. We’ve seen that before.
But under the Angelos’ family ownership, the Orioles rarely – like almost never – have an in-season fire sale. Peter Angelos and family have always felt like tearing down a team midseason is disingenuous to a fan base that paid money for tickets in advance to see a certain team/certain players compete.
We all know the story about 1996, when then-general manager Pat Gillick wanted to deal away several veterans for young players, the trades were shot down by Angelos and those Orioles went on to make the playoffs. There’s been just one in-season fire sale since – in 2000 – and it yielded the Orioles an All-Star in Melvin Mora and a bunch of other players that failed miserably.
So, given the fact fire sales don’t always work, combined with the two wild card spots and the organizational philosophy, I just don’t expect the Orioles this month to trade Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Brad Brach or Adam Jones, the four former All-Stars that will be free agents after the 2018 season.
But this is a theoretical bar, so we can debate the hypothetical here.
Here’s my thought today:
Britton will reclaim his closer duties, pushing Brach back to set-up man status. Regardless of the order, they are among the best relievers in the American League and high-quality people. Any team would want either, and either would bring back a solid haul of prospects, I’d imagine.
Down the road a few miles resides a ballclub that is excelling in every part of the game – except its bullpen. For the Washington Nationals to be legitimate World Series contenders, they need to really improve their relief corps.
Despite recent trades, the Nationals still have some really highly touted prospects in their system, such as outfielder Victor Robles and right-hander Erick Fedde. The Orioles have two back-end relievers that made the 2016 All-Star team and will be free agents in a blink.
There’s a match there.
Except the Orioles and Nationals aren’t exactly buddies. There’s the ongoing litigation involving the MASN situation. There’s been ill will for years.
And, frankly, a Brach or Britton could put the Nationals over the top. And that’s the last thing the Orioles’ ownership wants to do: Make the club in its backyard World Champions, potentially further eroding the Orioles’ fan base. That is understandable, of course.
The flip side is that the Orioles need more high-ceiling prospects in the system, especially with the way the organization stays away from large international bonuses to amateurs. And it’s unlikely the Orioles will re-sign both Britton and Brach – maybe not either – when they can seek huge money on the free-agent market.
I guess my question to you – the fans – is whether you’d be OK with trading a top reliever to the Nationals for a stud prospect or two. It might mean the Nats win the World Series, while who knows whether the prospects pan out.
It’s a risk. It could make your regional rival a champion. It could hurt your team’s chances of winning in the short term. Would you do it?
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No, Even though the Nats are in National League ,they are now a rival .
Besides,we let them have Weiters .Hopefully we can get healthy and maybe ,maybe our pitching can get back on track .
And while we are at it ,our hitters will soon start making contact with the ball . Both elements ( hitting and pitching ) have mysteriously vanished so far . GO O'S !
That's the other question here. When should a trigger be pulled, if it should? Is there enough here to make a run when healthy?
Yes... but only top-tier PITCHING prospects.
The O's have rarely had problems finding/getting decent position players (though, it would be nice to find some with even basic plate discipline, who know how to work the count and not swing at everything offered to them)... but the team hasn't had good starting pitching in years. Just like this year... a glimmer of hope here & there, but not a solid core. THAT'S what the team needs.
Agreed. But when it comes to not being able to grow their own pitching, the Orioles certainly aren't alone. Toughest thing to do in baseball.
Yes, yes, a thousand times yes. In fact, I would offer Brach AND Britton to the Nationals for Fedde, Robles, and at least two other high-end prospects. Letting them walk only for a draft pick instead of getting tremendous value in return will be far more damaging to the fan base. I truly hope Angelos & Co. will admit this is not our year, and allow Duquette to make deals to revamp the team and make us competitive for many years,
Rational case, General. But trading Brach AND Britton to the Nats would make them the team to beat in the majors. And if they won a World Series (or two) that would have to have an economic impact on Orioles. You and I can't think that way, but they have to.
Dan - I see the rationale in your response...but is it possible, so long as the MASN deal stays in place, that EITHER team winning the world series could be seen as a financial boost to the Angelos family and in turn the Orioles? That may be short-sighted, but I'm not saying the Angelos family could be in a position of a conflict by improving the Nats or making them favorites, but wouldn't there be an increase in viewership/ad revenue for world champions, no matter which team (Nats or Os)? And hey, if that deal nets the Orioles anything close to what the Yanks got for Miller or Chapman, well even better.
I do see what you mean, though, in terms of digging into fanbase - the reverse of what the Ravens have accomplished in much of the DC suburbs of Maryland. I live in Northern VA (grew up in HoCo) and there is a sizable Orioles following here still - I think it's underestimated in terms of size. I've always wondered how the Os do on TV in the DC market v. the Nats - i bet it's closer than you think.
For sure I would, in a second if we got an Andrew Miller like haul of prospects in return, but in my mind ownership will never allow it. Very short-sighted regime has been a problem and will continue to plague this team, you can sell assets and still compete, if done properly and you get lucky. The casual fan will not be happy in the short term, but they don't watch the game anyway, their cell-phone gets in the way.
Haha Brooks. Love cell phone line. Anyway, bottom line is winning and what makes you win. But I do understand why ownership would have a problem with weakening their current team while strengthening the other team in your market. Why I think it's an interesting question.
Absolutely to the Nats - or Yanks or Red Sox - if they're willing to part with 4 players including at least 2 major league ready. It starts with Robles and Joe Ross for the Nats - which would be equivalent to Torres and Warren which is what the Yanks got for Chapman.
I'm not sure how much they could get. But I'd imagine it could be fairly significant. Especially with each controllable through 2018.
Thought provoking question, with some background of which I'd been unaware (Nats prospect details). As this season continues to unravel, predictably or not, questions like this will become daily fodder. Sadly, I see the current regime doing what they do. No massive tear-down, no major deals that most see as obviously necessary to bolster a barren farm system. The most likely scenario is the one in which Scott Feldman (or his equivalent) is acquired at the cost of some nobody who, out of nowhere, becomes a serviceable MLB starter next year for some schlub team.
As the O's spiral down the drain, strange things will happen more and more quickly. The sooner they get to the "we need more and better scouts, a bigger international focus, fewer easily signable polite individuals of limited value" portion of the proceedings the better.
Not much to say here. Cept drink chip.
The Orioles need to get better. They need help in the outfield and starting pitching. If they can get what they need from the Nationals, why not? Brad Brach could help them win the World Series. However, I dont see it happening. The Nationals are very talented but that bullpen needs more than Brad Brach. Plus, the Nats are so much better than the rest of the division, it seems like they are coasting. A trade won't happen because of the disputes between the two front offices.
I'm not sure it has much to do with the front offices. Think it's higher than that. But, again, there's an economic component that could be long lasting. Not that I'd let that get in my way.
I'd be more than ok with that type of deal if the Orioles get really good prospects in return. But I would think anything like that wouldn't be done until the offseason. Britton just doesn't have the same value at this point because of the injury. Frankly, it will be interesting to see where Zach is in terms of results in the second half. If he pitches like his normal self, the value is much greater.
The O's should be listening to serious offers, as I'm sure they are. I doubt, however, the Nats are one of the teams they'll do business with.
I don't think it will take long for Britton's value to return in full. So long as he looks healthy, he'd be a top-tier purchase for anyone. I hear what your saying, but those in the game just wanna make sure he is healthy and then they'd be right back in it, trade-wise.
I'm in full fire-sale mode. Sell Machado, Britton and Brach. You've still got a nice core of youthful talent with Schoop, Mancini, Bundy and Gausman (he has to be getting better... right?) to build around. You get a nice haul, punt for a year or so and be back in the fight in 2019 or 2020. Buuuuut, I have a difficult time seeing any deal take place. I feel towards the Nats the same way I do towards the Padres or the Reds; just another NL team. I find the rivalry talk silly, as probably 90% of Washington's fan base used to be Orioles fans and still likes them. Even still, it would be difficult to stomach a World Series banner being raised on the South end of 295 before it rises on the North end. There is genuine animosity between the ownership groups and the Angelos family, rightfully, sees DC as not just a competitive threat to the Orioles, but an existential one. Take one look at the stands any given night to see what I mean. I don't think its gonna happen.
I think the economic piece is legitimate here. There are plenty of people in between D.C. & Balt that want to be with a winner. Human nature. And if one is a WS champion and the other rebuilding, it's easy to see where the dollars could go. I'm not saying that should be the deciding factor. But this one is more than just two sides not liking each other. Again, I'm intrigued by this one.
Absolutely! Make the deal for the best prospects you can get, period. Except to anyone in the AL East. To the National League is even better. The Nats seem to be the most in need so they should be offering up quite a treasure. Makes perfect sense. Do it and do it soon.
I don't understand the sentiment of not trading in the AL East. You'd be sending them a short-term rental that they either have to use big financial resources to re-sign or let them go for nothing or a pick. Meanwhile you hurt their minor league system while boosting your own. It may hurt to see Britton pitch in 100 games for them - but if it gives you a future starting SS, SP and potentially more, then so be it.
I guess the sentiment is because you see them 19 times a year as well. But the Red Sox did it with Miller and they now have ERod to throw 5-6 times per year (when healthy) against the Os while Miller is in the Central now.
It did work out well for the BoSox, in the long run, with the Miller trade.
How do you move forward after selling Brach and Britton? Who do you replace those guys with in 2018? I feel like that move signals that the O's are not about to compete in 2018 either. What then? I don't care so much that it's the Nationals, besides everybody knows that all Washington teams are cursed in the playoffs anyway, so I'm not too worried about them winning the World Series. If we're going to sell, sell it all. If we're going to try to compete in 2018, then you better add to what we have now with the least amount of subtraction possible.
Excellent point. This isn't just about 2017. Drink chip.
I absolutely agree about the affects on 2018.
If the offer is good, then absolutely I wouldn't have a problem with it. If it pushes the Nationals over the top, then that is OK with me as well. But then, I root for the Nats when they aren't playing the O's so I guess I'm biased. I don't think that the Nationals winning a World Series would put a huge enough dent in the Orioles fanbase to really make a huge difference. Bandwagon fans are going to flit wherever the wind carries them.
I've not paid a ton of attention to the pitching prospects that the Nationals even have. Is there anything there worth hoping for? God knows their bull pen is abysmal!
They traded away a bunch of top prospects. But they have a couple that are still highly regarded. Their system isn't what it used to be. But still good.
Easy answer....yes I would offer either pitcher that would bring us a good prospect and Gio Gonzales.
I can't imagine Gio is moved by the Nats. He's been huge for them this year and projects as a playoff starter.
Gio isn't going anywhere to pitch but Nationals Park or whichever stadium the Nats are playing at. I get why you might feel.that way though.
There's some precedent for trading in division or with a main rival and based on the trade that benefited the Os in so many ways eons ago that landed us Dempsey and Mcgregor. I don't recall if it was an in or out of season trade but it was with the hated Yankees, always one of our main rivals. I would hate to see Britton traded but if it meant desperately needed pitching in return then yes trade with the close-by rival Nats.
That one was in-season. And re-tooled the Orioles. They got Tippy, too.
First of all Dan I like your frequent responses to reader comments. This allows conversation and not just shouts off the rooftop. I am from DC but fell in love with the Os when I returned to the area in 1978 and rooted for the Senators and not the arrogant Orioles in the 1960s. If a trade helps me I make the trade with anyone. The 1976 trade with the Yanks that got us McGregor and Tippy Martinez allowed us to be serious contenders and eventually a world champion -- as well as the Yanks. The Nationals aren't the reason we're in this situation and when they came to DC they were just as bad as the Orioles were then. The real issue is why we didn't make the right moves ourselves for something sustainable. We would all like a Battle of the Beltways World Series.
Gary: I try to answer as many as I can. I hope that's one if the things that separate us. As for your comment, the Nats have done a solid job of building. But let's not forget that they had the top overall pick twice and once-(or twice)- per-lifetime talents were available. Os have had the overall just No. 1 once in their history.
If the return was right, I would trade Brach to the Nationals now. We can leverage a better deal with the fact that he would be under their control for 1.5 years. I would look to deal Britton after the season after he has hopefully regained his value. If history is any indication, we are not going to be paying market value for closers (see Jim Johnson). We need to acquire as much talent as possible. I'd also be dangling Manny to see what he can bring.
That's certainly reasonable thinking. Tho I do think Britton "regaining his value" is a little overblown. If he is dominant in the next three weeks, his value will be back in full.
Yes sir if they put them both out there. Let the other teams bid up the price and get 4-6 top tier prospects I definitely would. Send O'day,Jones,, Schoop, and Machado somewhere too. Don't forget Castillo as well.
I wouldn't deal Schoop. He's under team control for a few more years and he can be the veteran leader down the road.
And Jones would have to approve any trade.
Like most everyone above, I totally agree that a move should be made. The O's would still have O'Day, Givens, and a number of others who have shown potential in the pen. Just last year, the Yankees got a king's ransom for Miller and Chapman and as a result rebuilt their roster and their farm system overnight. And the O's do not necessarily have to trade with Washington. I believe there are a number of teams with deep farm systems that need a quality bullpen arm. Houston perhaps? If the O's make Brach or Britten available soon, I would expect a bidding war that can only help the O's.
That makes some sense. But I think Washington is the contender most in need of bullpen help. By a landslide.
Yes, yes and yes. What we have must change! Let's send them all our catchers except our minor league hitter who could learn from Matt...get him back...IMHO...this is in part due to his stabilizing presence...I really would not give up on our youngsters, particularly Bundy and Gauzeman
We have folks who can step up and deliver, may need to get started with building starter innings for Givens and perhaps others from our pen, we do not need a closer when we're giving up more that 5 runs EVERY game. If we can't compete with Washington, then perhaps that's that, at least they are not in our division. Just don't trade with Boston or NY, and Toronto or Tampa aren't far off either, but I don't "hate" them or fear them as much. Those who really want to stay and help us succeed better make that clear, at least to Buck, or must be cleared out, the sooner the better. Like our 1st pick, BUT...not...his agent. Can we say UNCLE? Why go there...
Givens is a reliever. No reason to mess with that. He's still pretty new as a pitcher. He's had so much success in the pen, I think you stick with that.
In a heart beat. I'm in the move Machado camp as well. The Orioles are at a crucial point pertaining to the future of their franchise. We have to move these guys and replenish the system even if its not Top Tier Pitching prospects. We could easily be set up for another 14 years of losing if we let Britton and Machado walk without getting anything for them. What the Yankees got for Chapman and Miller would drastically alter the future of our beloved Orioles. We have major assets that need to be capitalized upon. Even if we sign Machado for 300 Million or more, it will hamper our ability to add assets around him in order for us to have a chance of winning a world series. Looking at the team as it is today, we are not making the playoffs. We are a .500 team and any move (that we can afford to do without giving up Mancini or Sisco) will not get us over the hump and get us deep into the playoffs. If you sell now your rebuild will be a lot quicker since we do have some quality pieces, Mancini, Schoop, Rickard, Bundy, Gausman (sometimes), and potentially Cisco. Those are some decent building blocks that could provide a young dynamic team (something we haven't seen from the Orioles since the mid 1990's) if supplemented with a Victor Robles or a Torres from the Yankees or a stud from LA Dodgers or the Cubs or something! And when I'm talking Dynamic, I mean in the amount of ways we can score. Home runs might be sexy but geez give me three singles in a row any day (except for the O's b/c with our team speed we will need four singles in a row)
It boggles my mind that we haven't (to my knowledge) tried to buy out FA years for players like Schoop and Machado (we might have tried but it doesnt seem like we tried hard enough) Both of those guys should have been no brainers to try and buy out arbitration after their second full year in the bigs. Schoop is going to end up being a .275/30/100 type player for many years that will net him $100 million contract (fanchex be damned) and we are going to let him walk just like all the others.
That being said, I have no confidence that DD will due right by us if he is given permission to fire sale the club and even furthermore, trades need to be signed off with Ownership and there is no way they sign off on a deal to trade with the Nationals unless we getting Trea Turner back in return and even then I don't think Angelos would allow his ego to sign off on the trade with the Nationals.
The Nationals are not our rivals. This is coming from someone who lives in the DC metro area and should be a Nats fan. Besides our stadium and possibly our Manager, the Nationals have us beat in every other category. Top to bottom. So frustrating to know that as an O's fan as long as people, somewhat show up to the ball park, Angelos will be content. i.e. Davis signing (outbid by ourselves!).
Wow. That's a detailed post, Johnny. Drink chip, for sure. Not sure what all to address, so I'll fixate on one point that hasn't been brought up today. The Orioles' short-sightedness in not making enticing contract offers early to many of their young players -- including Manny and Schoop -- has been damaging. You got to take major shots there.
Appreciate the reply at all Dan. You do great work. I'm sure the frustration is real for you as well.
Nats could make World Series anyway, and our relievers could go as well.
Regardless, with what we owe Davis and Trumbo how much more can Os afford for Machado AND Britton/Brach and still pay 20 more hopefully good player? DD created a real mess bidding against himself for Davis/Trumbo
The Trumbo deal isn't a bad one. Only three years. I think Duquette played that perfectly. As for Davis, a whole lot of money. Gonna be hard to live up to that deal.
Sell one but not both. We still have another year to shed payroll before Manny's departure...no rush to get it all done before this trade deadline. But the cupboard is almost completely bare after Sisco, Hays and Akin. Robles alone would be worth selling off a bullpen arm to DC
To be fair, I'm not sure Nats would deal him. But to fill their main void with a guy like Brach/ Britton, they might.
I think the bigger issue is whether there's a systemic problem in this organization's player development. If drafting and development don't dramatically improve, getting prospects won't matter. Btw, last time I checked, the horde of pitchers the W Sox got for Adam Eaton have done nothing.
FYI, I live in PG County, and the dislike of the Orioles in the DMV is palpable. Maybe because we've beaten the tar out of them during Buck's reign. NATS fans reflect the area--unwarranted arrogance combined with irritable self-loathing.
I agree to an extent. The Orioles have produced some talent from the minors -- Machado, Schoop, Britton, Bundy, Gausman, Manicini -- but there has to be more -- especially if you are going to trade a portion away.
Might not trade them to the Nats necessarily but I'd be listening to all offers from all contenders (which obviously at this point we are not.) Not really sure I'd worry too much about who closes next year because if we truly go into a full rebuild the chances for saves may be few and far between. The only untouchables on this roster should be Schoop, Mancini, Bundy and Gausman. Let's not forget, Zach was a projected starter at one point in his career and he pivoted into the most dominant closer in the game. Don't think the same road won't be taken by Gausman possibly if he can't develop some more consistent secondary pitches. We need to build our farm and the only sure fire quick way to do so is to clean house. This is not the time to be sentimental. Now is the time to sell and sell hard. Let the real contenders kick the tires on this used car lot that is the Baltimore Orioles.
Yeah, I don't think who closes in 2018 should be a major factor. So many more issues than that.
As long as Ubaldo was part of the deal I'd trade a top reliever, the bird, palmer, the third base bag, and 2 tons of seeds.
My God. Watching Ubaldo do his stupid HR dance in dugout makes my brain itch.
Sure, to the Nationals, Yankees, anyone who gives us a good prospect package in return.
I would become ill if the Birds made any deal that benefits the Walgreens, who are evil. I would hate to have to root against Britton or Brach. And I don't trust "prospects."
Yoan Moncada is still slumming in Charlotte one year after his MLB debut. I did my own informal study on this a few years ago and concluded that scant few alleged prospects traded for players with All-Star games on the resume ultimately made an ASG themselves.
This franchise is in a terrible predicament. They're gonna get stuck with two years of mid-first round draft choices because they're not bad enough to get top five picks. They're at a record payroll level with nothing great to show for it. The system is weak. The international slots get traded away. The manager and general manager are lame ducks next year. The only bright spot is the advanced age of the owner. It's not a good situation. At least their AAA and spring training situations have mightily improved.
The Orioles should NOT be buyers in 2017; and, I would prefer NOT selling. The third option is to "hold". Keep the ball club together for one more year and see if we can't make a more respectable run for the postseason. One exception: trade Castillo. His cERA is about 2 runs higher than Caleb Joseph's. I was surprised to see the severe difference , but not surprised there is a difference. I think he is not good at framing pitches and I do not think he has been on the same page as the starting pitchers.
A word about Victor Robles; he has been off the table, and presumably still is.
Interesting column Dan, thanks.
If one looks in the past Richards put up for trade Larson & Turley top flight pitchers what that
Did was get the foundation for a winning O's team. Let us look at the best resources we have to. Put on the market...Machado, Britton , &Schoop.....Castillo may provide some attention.
To build a future winning team...we need young talented pitchers, and reinforcements in all
Positions in our minor leagues...get 1 starter for this year...get the rest of talent for next year and the future...have a 3 year plan for building a winning team.. I have little faith tha DD
Has this capability ....I do not know if the Angelos have the willingness to adopt a plan like
This...but I believe it is the way to go.
Go Cardinals Class of 1946
Good job!