The six biggest storylines of the Orioles’ first half — and what happens with each one now

The Orioles started out 22-10 and looked to be one of the best stories of the early season.

Then they dropped 36 of the next 56, and have left a fan base muttering about whether the club should be blown up and its best pieces sold for upper-end prospects.

It’s been a really confounding first half of the season. The Orioles weren’t as good as they first appeared and shouldn’t be as bad as they’ve looked for much of the last few weeks.

There have been some fairly consistent Orioles’ storylines, however, throughout these first three-plus months. I’ve ranked six, dissected them and predicted how these issues may end up.

Here they are:

6. The disappearing playing time of Hyun Soo Kim

For the first two months of the season, I probably received more fan interaction about outfielder Hyun Soo Kim’s lack of playing time than almost any other issue (besides Kevin Gausman’s performance). Kim became a fan favorite in 2016 for his high batting average (.302), smart at-bats and knack for getting on-base (.382). The only question was whether the left-handed Kim could hit lefties. That was left unanswered this year – he’s had nine plate appearances versus southpaws in the first half and was 1-for-8 with a walk. Now, the question is, will he get much of a chance to hit against anyone? Kim’s opportunity for steady playing time was damaged by the emergence of rookie Trey Mancini in left field. And when Mancini moved to first to cover for the injured Chris Davis, Kim got an expanded look in left. But he didn’t hit in the brief window, and has again become mainly a bench guy. He’s hitting just .229 with a .301 on-base percentage in 134 plate appearances. Davis is expected back Friday, so Kim’s playing time should plummet again. It’s possible the Orioles could look to move him, but the market for a platoon hitter with limited outfield range that’s owed a couple million bucks won’t be hopping.

5. The Britton effect

I’ve been told for years, and have been given data that supports it, that the ninth inning is like any other inning. And that any effective reliever can serve in the closer’s role. I’m sure there is some truth to that, though I think the pressure that comes with the ninth – facing a team in a close game with the opposing players fighting for their last chance at victory – is more pronounced than in any other frame. I’m also a believer that human beings thrive when they know how they’ll be used and what is expected of them, assuming they have the tools to complete the job. To me it’s more about knowing your role than when that role actually occurs. So, when an effective closer leaves his role, it creates a domino effect, and each reliever below him must step into another spot. Some will struggle with that change mentally, and others may not have the physical tools to succeed in the new position. That’s what I think happened with the Orioles’ bullpen when closer Zach Britton missed a large chunk of time with a forearm injury. Brad Brach did a fine job filling in, but everyone had to move up a slot, and that affected the overall performance of the usually stout bullpen. Britton’s back now, and assuming he is healthy, things should return to normal. In fact, the bullpen could be better now that guys such as Mychal Givens, Richard Bleier and Miguel Castro have had success in “elevated” situations.

4. Who’s gonna pitch for us?

I’ve been around this organization for a long time and perhaps my favorite quote I’ve ever received occurred in December 2005, when the Orioles ignored an immense need to improve the rotation and bought catcher Ramon Hernandez as a free agent. In response to that, and to Miguel Tejada asking for a trade, then-Orioles third baseman Melvin Mora said in a phone conversation that he understood Tejada’s frustration, and then quipped, “Who’s gonna pitch for us?” Mora’s line set off a mini-firestorm within the organization at the time, but the sentiment still rings somewhat true now. In fact, with the way the Orioles have juggled pitchers from the minors to the majors in 2017 – they used 23 different hurlers in the first half, including 19 in relief – Mora’s question may be more apropos than ever. The Orioles have obviously had some injuries, but what was initially a Norfolk Shuttle by design – to take advantage of a larger bench and optionable relief pieces — has morphed into a turnstile of relievers who can’t maintain consistency in the bigs. That, and an overmatched rotation, has given the Orioles the second highest ERA in baseball in the first half. The revolving door should slow some in the second half. Zach Britton’s return means one fewer spot available on the staff. It should also mean more quality innings from the bullpen overall. It won’t matter, though, if the rotation fails to pitch deeper into games in the second half.

3. The Great Mancini

For all the negatives this season, the emergence of Trey Mancini has to be the biggest positive in Baltimore. The 25-year-old wasn’t supposed to make the team. But he learned to play the outfield in spring training, and justified his presence in the field by crushing the ball routinely at the plate. He hit a bit of snag after a hot start, but he made adjustments, and continued to put together good at-bats instead of trying to homer at every opportunity. The results followed. Through his first full half in the majors, Mancini is leading the Orioles in batting average (.312), on-base percentage (.354) and slugging (.538). He has 15 doubles and 14 homers and held his own defensively in left field and at first base, his natural position. When the Orioles re-signed Mark Trumbo it appeared that Mancini was the odd man out. Instead, he’s worked his way into an everyday role. And when Davis returns from the disabled list, likely Friday, Mancini will continue to get regular starts, primarily in left field. He’s earned that.

2. The juxtaposition of Manny and Schoop

The Orioles have a mid-20s infielder and middle-of-the-order hitter with 30-homer pop, a near-.300-average bat and the ability to play shortstop in an emergency. His name? Jonathan Schoop. OK, up until the last week or so, the easy identifier to those hints was third baseman Manny Machado. Schoop’s emergence, both as a middle of the lineup force and a shortstop in a pinch, has been one of the club’s biggest revelations in 2017. It’s been important, too, because Machado has hit just .230 – roughly 50 points below his career average – with an on-base percentage of .296. Yet, for all hand-wringing about Machado’s offense, he’s tied with Schoop for the team lead in homers with 18. And Machado has turned it up lately, hitting .333 (13-for-39) in nine July games. Really, it was a matter of time for the uber-talented Machado to re-establish himself offensively. He’s the best player on this team, but his best buddy Schoop is trying to make it a contest. They are like two brothers, pushing each other, trying to one-up each other and yet supportive at the same time. I guess the question here – with the thoughts that the Orioles could be sellers – is how long will they be teammates? Well, I don’t see management punting on this season and dealing either during the season.

1. What’s wrong with Gausman?

Technically, the burning question at No. 1 could be, what’s wrong with the rotation, which is 29th of 30 teams in starters’ ERA? However, the only member of that group whose 2017 has been a true surprise is Kevin Gausman’s, and not in a good way. Certainly, Chris Tillman is better than a near-8.00 ERA, but his shoulder injury and late start explains the poor numbers, at least partially. Dylan Bundy got off to a tremendous beginning and he leads the team in wins (8), strikeouts (84) and innings pitched (108), among other categories. But his ERA currently sits at 4.33, which is probably about right for most mortals is their first full year starting in MLB (and the AL East). Wade Miley’s 4.97 ERA, Ubaldo Jimenez’s 6.67 ERA and the duo’s penchant for head-shaking inconsistency is frowned upon, but not shocking. So that leaves Gausman, who was supposed to be the anchor of this staff, especially with Tillman’s health woes. Instead, Gausman is 5-7 with a 5.85 ERA. It’s rather befuddling as to why. The guy throws 97 mph routinely. He has solid breaking stuff that should keep hitters honest. He hadn’t posted an ERA above 4.25 in his last three big league seasons. But his fastball command has been shaky, and it’s made his other offerings, as well as his blazing fastball, hittable if in the strike zone. Given the talent, expectations and first-half results, Gausman’s performance (and the rotation’s overall inability to pitch deep) has to be the No. 1 storyline. Will he turn it around in the second half? You’d think so, but you also never thought he’d be at this point 19 starts into his season, either. This is hard to predict, but it just doesn’t seem like Gausman will be this bad for a full season.