We had a pretty spirited conversation on the site Thursday about what the Orioles need to do in order to improve their pitching for 2018.
It was spirited enough that I want to carry it into the Tap Room this weekend.
It’s my belief that the best way – maybe the only way — for the Orioles to improve their rotation next year is to trade for a starting pitcher or two, since the free agent market for starters this winter is fairly shallow and, likely, expensive.
The problem, of course, is what do the Orioles have to trade that could bring the such a return. And if the answer isn’t Manny Machado – for those of you who can’t stomach the idea of a rebuild – then I’d suggest it is Brad Brach or Zach Britton. All three are free agents after 2018.
As painful as it might be to weaken the bullpen, Brach or Britton should at least fetch a couple young arms with the upside to help a rotation. No guarantees, of course, but that’s how it would be with dealing Machado, too (though the pedigree of return would be higher in any deal for the third baseman).
That discussion got me thinking.
Is there any player with the Orioles that I wouldn’t trade away this winter in a reasonable deal for starting pitching?
I think my answer is no.
Some may say second baseman Jonathan Schoop; he was the 2017 Most Valuable Oriole, turns 26 later this month and is under team control through 2019. But he made $3.5 million last year and will get a hefty raise this winter in arbitration.
So, he’s not cheap, and may not be a part of the extended future. I likely wouldn’t deal him, but I certainly would be open to an overwhelming offer.
Rookies such as Trey Mancini, Chance Sisco and Austin Hays are all intriguing, and all could be building blocks. But, again, my ears wouldn’t be closed about dealing any of them.
If there is one guy that is close to untouchable for me it’s right-hander Dylan Bundy. Simply because of his age (25 in November), team control (can’t be a free agent until after the 2021 season) and the dearth of quality big league starters currently on the Orioles’ 40-man roster.
In other words, for me to deal Bundy it would have to be for a young pitcher (or multiple ones) with even more team control and similar upside. And that just doesn’t seem likely.
But I’d never say never.
So, if push comes to seriously hard shove, I suppose, for me, no one on this Orioles’ roster is untouchable in a trade. How about for you?
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Ubaldo, lol
He gone.
I would like to have been able to say Matt Wieters but ....
I guess the closest I'd come to untouchable is Schoop. If I thought Machado were signable, he'd be 1st on the list, but I've already resigned myself to him wearing someone else's uniform after next year, if not sooner. So I guess my answer is no. No one player on this team is untouchable.
That being said, what I'd prefer is to keep this team together for one more run, and let Danny Ducks do his thing one more time while hoping for the best. I honestly don't think this team is THAT far from contention. Add 2 serviceable pitchers from the outside .... hope Gausman & Bundy continue to improve while staying healthy .. and the baseball gods willing .. maybe we can find 1 or 2 starters from the trio of Castro, Yacabonis and Ynoa. Maybe give Tanner Scott a shot.
I just read back what I wrote ..... sheesh ... Beertender please ... I need another.
I think you need a few. On their way.
No. Greatest value is after a breakout season. I often wonder what the O's could have gotten for Brady after his 50 season.
Of course after Brady's breakout in 96 he had a near .400 OBP year to help Os go wire to wire in 1997.
Schoop by far; we need to keep one of our more consistent hitters and better defenders. Manny also if we are sure we can sign him; if we can't, trade him and get something for him but make it clear to the fanbase that there was no hope of his staying in B'more. Maybe also Bundy and Gausman- we need pitchers, so might as well hold onto the serviceable ones we currently have.
Schoop was great in 2017. And has upside. But I think if the right deal came along for some pitching I'd have to seriously listen.
First of all, we should be starting year 1 of a 5 year rebuild. Having said that, I would hang onto KG, Dylan, and ZB and hope their value rebounds some. I'm sure me including Dylan might spark outrage but his xFIP was worse than lg average and in today's game I promise you every other GM besides Dan values that stat heavily.
Honestly, besides Bundy, and probably Gausman, and Adam Jones who should probably stay an Oriole for the rest of his career, I don't think there's anybody I wouldn't trade, if the right players are returned. I add Adam in there, only because there would be a huge backlash if he was traded, both from fans and players alike. You just can't trade him off the team, that would be disastrous.
I missed yesterday's shift at the Tap Room, but I'm intrigued by the possibility of bringing Wei-Yin Chen back to the organization. Yes, he had elbow problems in 2017, but he came back at the end of the season and pitched effectively. He is owed a LOT of money by Miami through player options ($10 mil in 2018, $20 mil - 2019, $22 mil - 2020), but it's been highly reported that they're looking to cut team payroll to about $50 million total, and they may be willing to eat some of that salary to not have to pay him $20+ million dollars in 2019. He also had a 3.76 ERA pitching at Camden Yards, and who wouldn't take that every 5 days for 6 innings compared to what we had this year?
I'm not saying it's a match made in heaven, and we know how the Orioles are about health issues, but he was a good pitcher for us and maybe we shouldn't have let him get away.
Woof. Chen's had serious injury problems since leaving Baltimore. I'm sure that's enough to sink that. Hard to say we shouldn't have let him get away. You listed his contract. That's a bad one. I think we lucked out big time on that one. I think we should look into the bad contract pitchers who need a change of scenery route though. If there's a chance to dump trumbo to offset deals that'd be great. I saw someone mention Kennedy as a possibility. He might not be a terrible option. I really wish we would've taken a look at mike leake before the mariners snagged him. He would've been a great fit for Camden yards. I'd like to think what Dan, Paul, and anyone else think about that kind of option and who you think might be a fit. I really like Matt Moore as a bounce back candidate, although that deal obviously wouldn't involve trumbo.
Just Schoop ... but then it depends on the pitcher
Now that one makes me laugh!
The young bucks. I no longer see this as a contender on it's last legs, I see this as a potentially exciting young core with a layer of crusty veterans stuck to the top. Schoop, Mancini, Beckham, Bundy, Hays, Sisco, I think you can absolutely build a winner on that. I'd say Gausman but only if they can figure out a way to have him pitch every fifth day this winter, maybe pay a bunch of people to sit in the stadium and dress up as Oakland A's , thus duping him into thinking he's not pitching the first half of the season next April through July. The bullpen will be fine. Say what you will about Dan Duquette, the man knows how to find a relief pitcher.
Unless Duquette and Buck convince Peter Angelos that the Grim Reaper is at his door, he completely changes his entire philosophy and goes all in financially for 2018, it's time to raise a glass to the glories of the teens and start setting up for success in the 20's. (my God, we'll soon be living in the 20's). Machado is gone. He's not taking less than the GDP of Kazakhstan to not play his natural position in a half empty stadium. Adam Jones is making noise that he should be involved in the planning for next year because he wants to win now, a noble cause until you consider Mr. Jones and company have had 3 shots at the big dance and didn't get it done. I mean, sweet Jesus, they had Zach Britton AND Andrew Miller at the height of their powers and got SWEPT. It's time to take off the orange glasses and reckon with reality lads and lassies. Not only is the window closed, it's locked, painted shut and boarded up.
So I just had to look up the GDP of Kazakhstan, which actually stands at about $157 billion, so even though Manny is good, I don't think he's quite worth that. I think a good comp might be the GDP of Micronesia which is about $334 million. If you add a few more years to the contract, you might be able to move up the the GDP of Tonga which is estimated to be $422 million in 2017. I'm kinda with you though, Bancells, I think this window to contend is closed given how good NYY and BOS just got this year.
I suppose you are right. Micronesia it is. That Kazakhstan money is a steep price. I mean, it's not like he's Arenado or anything...
Ironically my answer to that is Bundy or Gausman. Trading either, unless you're getting a true ace, is almost like filling a hole by digging another one. Other than that the answer is no BUT I would like to hang on to Hays. If Schoop were to go you would have to pick up IF help too. Mid level FA's will have to be Dan's way.
Short answer - no one
Long answer - no one
I would trade Schoop only for an ace, someone who, right now, is clearly and measurably better than Bundy and with a track record to match. A 6-WAR pitcher at least.
I would say no one's untradable, but looking at the history of pitching the Os have traded for, it might be a better idea not to make any deals. Who was the last pitcher the Os traded for that has had any long term success with the team. I think this organization needs a totally new philosophy regarding how they select and scout pitching
I think we need to rebuild. Aside from the pitching, the offense is one-dimensional, and we're stuck with the strike out kings, Davis (until 2022) and Trumbo (until 2019). This management has been horrible about acquiring starting pitching, so we can't count on anything good coming our way. Of course I really wish we could trade or fire the owner. He was responsible for the Davis fiasco, probably the worst position player signing of the Angelos era.
The answer is that nobody should be untouchable, but it depends what you mean by rotation help.
I would absolutely trade Machado or Schoop for guys that will help the 2020 rotation, but I wouldn’t trade them for a pitcher at his peak.
Conversely, I would absolutely trade Mancini, Hays, Sisco, Mountcastle etc. if it mean acquiring a bona fide frontline starter for a do or die 2018 campaign.
Whatever they do, it should be done all the way. Either trade our current core for pitching prospects to pair with an emerging core of young position players, or trade the young guys to truly give the current core one last shot.
Sadly, I think they are going to continue with the current approach, which means there won't be a bold move to upgrade the rotation.
Keep Bundy, Gausman, Schoop. Everyone else you at least have to listen to offers for, EVERYONE, even Jones. I know he's the face of the franchise, very popular and admittedly the one i'd least like to see traded but the pitching need is greater than him and he's not Cal. Bundy would be the one untouchable if there is one.
The key phrase in your question is... "rotation help".
If all they're gonna do is try to get "help"... then, yes. There are/should be a few untouchables... for now. Even in this day of mercenary rent-a-player mentality (which is what Aug & Sep baseball has turned into), you don't trade away your future for "help" (in my opinion... and, of course, this is why I'd never make a good general manager)
However, if the front office were to shift into full rebuilding mold... then, no... no one on the current roster should be untouchable.
Adam Jones is (I think) the longest tenured Oriole... he's been here a long time, and played well. So maybe he gets a bit more courtesy than others, in considering his thoughts & desire if his name were to be bandied about in a potential trade. But the others... even though I know they all are still people & have lives... they're all 'poker chips' to be kept & used as necessary by the owner.
Decent hitters aren't really all that hard to find. Great ones are, but decent hitting is all around, with more coming up every day. It's not really all that hard to find guys who can hit the 3-run bomb. Same goes for fielders... and the O's seem to have a surplus of each. What they don't have are...
* Pitchers
* Batters with good plate discipline
* Speed
Those are the 3 areas the team should pursue... and if you gotta bet some of those poker chips to get 'em, then spend 'em!
We don't need "rotation help." We need H-E-L-P. i would trade Machado for an ace and sign Mike Moustakas to replace him. I don't think trading journeyman position players for journeyman pitchers will make much difference, but in that context everyone is tradable.
I'm not sure. I suppose Adam Jones would be the one should there even be suitors and/or it be contractually possible. I think it would send a terrible signal and ideally he if he stays healthy and somewhat productive he should finish his career in Baltimore.
KG and (especially) Bundy seem also "untouchable" but only because if we're looking for rotation help then why rob Peter to pay Paul?
I guess the real question is how much are we looking at next year versus the proverbial "rebuild". If you're looking at next year I'm not sure you trade Machado as that suddenly leaves a large hole to fill in the lineup and in the infield (whose defense is now weaker with JJ gone and Beckham learning the ropes) than it has been in years past. Same with Schoop (keep him and Manny together as long as possible). Everyone else is probably fair game aside from AJ.
That said, if it's truly a rebuild type situation than nobody is untouchable really because suddenly your timeline changes so drastically it almost doesn't matter (except in their trade value) who is currently young and under team control for x years. If the horizon suddenly shifts to 3-5 years out those variables that make the player important *now* no longer apply in the same way.
Personally, I'd like to see them try it one more time with as much of the "core" group intact as possible. I'll take one more year of (hopefully) interesting baseball over starting a rebuild before its absolutely necessary and resigning multiple seasons to the losing column. I mean, if it doesn't work it doesn't work and what's the downside? Other than the possible prospect haul for trading Machado I don't really see the opportunity cost.
Unless the O's re-sign Castillo, I'd say Joseph. He calls a great game and he generally hits well. We need someone who can work with pitchers. I like Castillo's bat and I'd like to see him back if we could be rid of Trumbo, just to DH and as a third catcher on the roster without consuming an extra space. He had too good a season though, and I don't expect we'll extend him a substantial enough offer to stay in Baltimore. So, that said, Joseph is absolutely necessary because I don't think Sisco is ready to be the guy behind the plate at OPACY.
I think the Orioles should absolutely trade Joseph if they could get legitimate starting pitching help in exchange. He's a respected guy and works well with pitchers, but he's a 31-year-old catcher with a below-average bat. That's not the kind of guy you keep in the "untouchable" pile. If Castillo leaves and you trade Joseph, you could always just sign another veteran catcher while you give Sisco more seasoning.
But it's probably a moot point, because I don't think Joseph would fetch that kind of return in a trade.
An NFL owner once said, "I'm a salesman so everything I've got is for sale except my family." Since DD's family isn't on the roster, make a deal but don't be like Jack just getting a few beans for the family cow. Look at the playoff rosters for those guys who seemed to come out of nowhere. We could do a lot better there. I don't think we will win in 2018 but give me some upside to stay up late to see.
Honestly, if we are going all-in for 2018, then I think the other area that definitely needs to be addressed is outfield defense. With the pitching staff we have, our outfield defense is a major problem. I would favor finding a plus defender (even if their bat is suspect) and moving Jones to right, with Hays in the mix for left field, along with Mancini. To me, that has to be a priority. It's been unaddressed each of the last three years but is a glaring need. Jones in particular is no longer a quality defensive center fielder. It would be difficult for me to take the "competing in 2018" rhetoric seriously unless something was done to address this.
In my opinion I'd hold Bundy & Gausmen and open the door for trades. I'd be real cautious with the three rookies. I'd want real nuggets for them.
Not our two best run producers: Schoop and Mancini.
What good are runs if our staff can't hold a leave. Schoop and Manny would bring in a nice haul. In the old days the birds won with great pitching and team batting average slightly above .250.
Schoop. Everyone else is on the table including Manny who they will almost undoubtedly not re-sign.
Bundy is untouchable, thus far, anyway.
I'd listen to offers for anyone else, but would have to be very confident about the deal before pulling the trigger on Schoop, Hays, Sisco, or Mancini.
What's the inside scoop (as far as you know) on Machado's mindset? The only guy I wouldn't trade otherwise if we can retain Machado is Richie Bancells.
Maybe im in the minority but if a controllable starting pitcher was on the table I'd part with Mancini easily. I'm a big stats guy although I watch a good 85% of the Orioles games a season, but I don't really see anywhere for Mancini to go up. I won't post any of his advanced stats or anything but I think we have a guy who played to at or near his ceiling in his rookie season. He's a nice player but he's not really a left fielder and we have the Davis logjam at 1B for the foreseeable future. I'm not sure the market is there for him though.
I'd have a hard time dealing schoop for a pitcher unless he was a controllable for the long term. I don't think you can deal schoop off of next years team and grab a pitcher who would offset that loss. Seems highly unlikely that we'd be able to accomplish that with no other 2B alternative in house. If you're dealing Schoop now you might as well start a complete rebuild and ship out Machado, Britton, Brach, Jones, maybe even mancini, givens and beckham if the offers are good enough, Givens I think we could wait on and let him further his value in the closers role. Beckham is another guy who may be able to improve his trade value a tick. If we're rebuilding I'd send Mancini out to for a solid offer. O'day trumbo joseph etc. I don't really see a significant return for so it wouldn't matter one way or another for them.
If were talking about competing next year, I think you can't deal Machado, Bundy, or Schoop. I don't think it makes sense to trade Gausman while his value is at a low point either. If I felt like this team was closer to WS contention I'd ship out Sisco and resign Castillo in a heart beat. Sisco would bring back a real SP, but I don't think we're that close.
Machado, Schoop, Jones, Mancini, Bundy.
For the right deal, probably nobody should be immune to trade. Adam Jones would probably be the best trade piece and if necessary to garner a top line starter, add a Zach Britton. This is quite a bit to give up so quite a bit must be received and the organization needs to make sure it is done correctly. A top of the rotation starter and a top pitching prospect, minimum, anything more in return would be better. Even with that we would still need to add through free agency as well, another proven starter and outfielder. Instead of trading them we need to find a way to sign Machado and Schoop, long term and hope that a short stop or third baseman will be available or ready in the minors sooner than later.