Revisiting AL East Position Rankings: Infield

At the start of the 2017 season, I attempted to compare the Orioles to their AL East opponents by ranking each team in the division at every position on the field.

Making predictions is a fool’s errand, as we all know. And making predictions about how five teams will rank at every position over the course of a season is even more foolish. You’re just going to look ridiculously wrong at the end of the year. If I were smart, I would never bring up those rankings again, and spare myself the embarrassment of being so wildly off-base.

But nobody ever accused me of being smart. So, without further ado, I’m going to revisit my April rankings and see just how much I missed the mark based on how the 2017 season turned out. I’ll also offer my final end-of-season rankings for each.

We’ll start today with the infield rankings (my April rankings can be found here).

Catcher

April rankings:

1. Russell Martin, Blue Jays
2. Gary Sanchez, Yankees
3. Welington Castillo, Orioles
4. Sandy Leon, Red Sox
5. Wilson Ramos (injured)/Derek Norris, Rays

We’ve only just begun, and already my April rankings are laughably wrong. The Blue Jays, who I thought would get the most production from their catching spot in 2017, instead got the least. Their .185 average and .604 OPS from catchers were the worst marks in the AL. Martin, who missed a month with a strained left oblique, was one of six players to start at catcher for Toronto (including former Orioles prospect Michael Ohlman for three games). Three of them had averages below the Mendoza line.

Sanchez took the mantle as the top catcher in the division, blasting 27 home runs as a backstop (and six more homers at other positions) to build on his impressive 2016 rookie season. The Yankees weren’t thrilled with Sanchez’s pitch-blocking ability, but his potent offense covered up his deficiencies with the glove.

Speaking of offense-first catchers, Castillo was a hit in his first — and possibly only — season with the Orioles, hitting 20 homers (19 as a catcher) and posting an .813 OPS. He also threw out 49 percent of attempted base stealers, leading the league. A knock on Castillo, though, is that most Orioles pitchers had a much higher ERA with him behind the plate than backup Caleb Joseph.

In my April rankings, I wrote that Boston’s Leon would need to prove his breakout 2016 season wasn’t a fluke. Well, he didn’t, crashing to a .225 average and .644 OPS. Christian Vazquez ended up with more playing time than Leon and did a solid job, and both were good defenders.

For the Rays, Norris was a black hole for the first half of the season, but Ramos restored order once he came off the DL in late June. Unremarkable backup Jesus Sucre had almost as many starts as each of them.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Sanchez, Yankees
2. Castillo/Joseph, Orioles
3. Leon/Vazquez, Red Sox
4. Ramos/Norris/Sucre, Rays
5. A bunch of people, Blue Jays

First Base

April rankings:

1. Chris Davis, Orioles
2. Greg Bird/Chris Carter, Yankees
3. Mitch Moreland, Red Sox
4. Logan Morrison, Rays
5. Justin Smoak, Blue Jays

Oof, I’m really bad at this prediction stuff. My April rankings for first base ended up almost exactly backward from how 2017 actually played out. The two first basemen I ranked the worst, Morrison and Smoak, turned out to be the two most productive. Smoak, in his eighth career season and third organization, finally had the breakout year he’d been waiting for since he was a first-round draft pick in 2008. His 38 homers, 90 RBIs and .883 OPS were all career bests by a large margin. The Rays’ Morrison put up similar numbers: 38 blasts, 85 RBIs and .868 OPS. All were career highs for him as well.

It’s interesting that Moreland and Davis are in the same division; they were previously teammates with the Texas Rangers (along with Smoak in 2010), where Moreland beat out Davis for the first base job. They had similarly mediocre seasons in 2017, mixing disappointing offensive numbers with good defensive work, except that Moreland made $5.5 million while Davis was in the second year of a seven-year, $161 million deal.

The Yankees’ expected platoon of Bird and Carter imploded quickly. Bird played 19 terrible games before undergoing ankle surgery, while Carter was released after batting .201 with eight homers in 62 games. The Yankees then tried six other starting first basemen, with little success, before Bird returned at the end of the season and finally got hot.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Smoak, Blue Jays
2. Morrison, Rays
3. Moreland, Red Sox
4. Davis, Orioles
5. A cast of thousands, Yankees

Second Base

April rankings:

1. Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
2. Jonathan Schoop, Orioles
3. Brad Miller, Rays
4. Devon Travis, Blue Jays
5. Starlin Castro, Yankees

At second base, the Orioles were second to none. Schoop broke out with a sensational season, crushing 32 home runs and placing sixth in the AL with 105 RBIs en route to winning Most Valuable Oriole honors. He started 158 games at the position, 50 more than any other AL East second baseman.

Pedroia’s offensive numbers dipped a bit, but he played his usual strong defense, while Castro rebounded offensively from a miserable 2016, but continued to struggle with the glove. Both players missed significant time with injuries. And you can’t mention injuries without discussing the Blue Jays’ snakebitten Travis, who — for the third time in his three big league seasons — spent much of the year on the DL. He underwent knee surgery that ended his season in June. His primary replacements, Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins, didn’t hit, but played strong defense.

That’s more than can be said of the Rays’ Miller, who did nothing well. Coming off a 30-homer season in 2016, he dipped to nine long balls in 2017 while batting .201. He also was one of the worst defensive second basemen in the game.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Schoop, Orioles
2. Pedroia, Red Sox
3. Castro, Yankees
4. Travis/Barney/Goins, Blue Jays
5. Miller, Rays

Shortstop

April rankings:

1. Troy Tulowitzki, Blue Jays
2. Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
3. J.J. Hardy, Orioles
4. Didi Gregorius (injured)/Ronald Torreyes, Yankees
5. Matt Duffy (injured)/Tim Beckham, Rays

Once again, my first-place ranking in April was as wrong as it could possibly be. The Blue Jays ended up having the least productive shortstops in the division. Tulowitzki was a huge disappointment, hitting just .249 with a .678 OPS and seven homers in 66 games before an ankle injury cut his season short. Combined with Travis’ injury at second, the Blue Jays resorted to using utility infielders up the middle.

In my April rankings, I bumped the Yankees to fourth because I thought Gregorius’ season-opening shoulder injury would sideline him for a while. But he returned by the end of April and made up for lost time in a big way. Gregorius tallied 25 homers, 87 RBIs, a .287 average and .796 OPS, emerging as the best shortstop in the division. Not as lucky was Bogaerts, who backslid from his All-Star 2016 season with a so-so year for Boston.

Now we’re in the rare predicament of comparing two teams that employed the same guy: Beckham. He started the season with the Rays and made 69 starts at shortstop, then was traded to Baltimore and started 49 there. Beckham fared much better with the Orioles. But the Rays’ other primary shortstop, trade acquisition Adeiny Hechavarria, was more productive than the Orioles’ fading Hardy. So, Tampa Bay had better shortstop production overall.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Gregorius, Yankees
2. Bogaerts, Red Sox
3. Beckham/Hechavarria, Rays
4. Hardy/Beckham, Orioles
5. Tulowitzki/Goins, Blue Jays

Third Base

Preseason rankings:

1. Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays
2. Manny Machado, Orioles
3. Evan Longoria, Rays
4. Chase Headley, Yankees
5. Pablo Sandoval, Red Sox

In April, I agonized over whether to rank Donaldson or Machado as the division’s top third baseman, ultimately settling on the 2015 AL MVP. And Donaldson did end up with the most impressive offensive numbers this season, posting a stupendous .944 OPS to go with 33 homers and 78 RBIs. One problem, though: he suffered a calf injury that limited him to 108 games.

So, I’m pushing the more durable Machado ahead of Donaldson in the end-of-season rankings. Sure, Manny had an inconsistent year with the bat, but still produced 33 homers and 95 RBIs. Plus, he played his usual excellent defense at the hot corner.

No other third baseman in the AL East was particularly impressive. Longoria scuffled to a .737 OPS, and his 20 homers were the fewest he’s ever had in a full season. The Yankees started a nondescript Headley for much of the season before trading for Todd Frazier. And Sandoval continued to be such a disaster for the Red Sox that the team released him and ate the $50-plus million remaining on his contract. They had trouble finding a major league caliber third baseman until 20-year-old Rafael Devers came up in late July.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Machado, Orioles
2. Donaldson, Blue Jays
3. Longoria, Rays
4. Headley/Frazier, Yankees
5. All sorts of folks, Red Sox