Revisiting AL East Position Rankings: Outfield

Welcome to part two of my AL East position rankings series. If you’re just joining us, I’m rating how each of the five division teams fared at every position in 2017 — and comparing them to my preseason rankings in April to discover just how wrong I was.

In part one, I covered the infield. Next, I’ll analyze the outfield, designated hitter and bench for each team. Here’s how I ranked them all in April. How close did I get to reality? (Spoiler: not close at all.)

Left Field

April rankings:

1. Brett Gardner, Yankees
2. Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox
3. Hyun Soo Kim, Orioles
4. Colby Rasmus (injured)/Mallex Smith, Rays
5. Ezequiel Carrera, Blue Jays

Hey, occasionally I get one right. I ranked Gardner as the best left fielder in the division in April, and he indeed ended up being the best this year. Gardner provided a little bit of everything: on-base skills (.350 OBP), speed (23 steals in 28 attempts) and even power (a career-high 21 homers). He also played his usual strong defense.

Benintendi was my preseason pick for AL Rookie of the Year. He won’t win that award (because of a fellow AL East outfielder you’ve probably heard of), but he had a productive rookie season with 20 homers, 90 RBIs and a .776 OPS.

The other three teams all had a revolving door in left field, with nobody starting more than 87 games there. The expected Rays’ duo of Rasmus and Smith combined for just 33 starts, while Corey Dickerson — their expected DH — got the bulk of the playing time in left, providing a quality bat but iffy defense.

For the Orioles, Trey Mancini settled in at left in the second half after Kim flamed out, but only 10 of Mancini’s 24 homers came as a left fielder. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays used eight starting left fielders, led by Carrera and ex-Oriole Steve Pearce, with unremarkable results.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Gardner, Yankees
2. Benintendi, Red Sox
3. Dickerson and company, Rays
4. Mancini and company, Orioles
5. Pearce/Carrera, Blue Jays

Center Field

April rankings:

1. Kevin Kiermaier, Rays
2. Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox
3. Adam Jones, Orioles
4. Kevin Pillar, Blue Jays
5. Jacoby Ellsbury, Yankees

In April, I confidently declared that Ellsbury was “clearly not on the same tier as the others” in my last-place ranking for the Yankees. Yet the Yankees wound up with the most production from center field in the AL East this season. Ellsbury was only partially responsible for that, with a modest bounceback season that included 22 steals and a .750 OPS, his highest mark since 2013. But the secret weapon for the Yankees was Aaron Hicks, who made 50 starts in center when Ellsbury was hurt and posted an .872 OPS at that position.

Ranking the other four depends on how strongly you value defense. FanGraphs ranked Jones last among AL center fielders with -12 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). And even if you don’t put much stock in advanced defensive metrics, my eye test suggests that the 32-year-old Jones is no longer the Gold Glove fielder he once was. Still, I’ll rank him third in the division because of his offensive production (26 homers, 73 RBIs). Ahead of him is Boston’s Bradley, who provided a strong glove and contributed with the bat as well, hitting 17 home runs and driving in 63.

In a full season, the Rays’ Kiermaier would probably rank first. He hit well (a .788 OPS, 15 homers and 39 RBIs) and was his usual spectacular self defensively, compiling 22 DRS in just 98 games. But he missed two months of the season with a hip fracture, with Mallex Smith filling in. Lastly, Pillar was a defensive star in Toronto, but his offense wasn’t up to snuff with the rest of the AL East center fielders.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Ellsbury/Hicks, Yankees
2. Bradley, Red Sox
3. Jones, Orioles
4. Kiermaier/Smith, Rays
5. Pillar, Blue Jays

Right Field

April rankings:

1. Mookie Betts, Red Sox
2. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays
3. Seth Smith, Orioles
4. Aaron Judge, Yankees
5. Steven Souza Jr., Rays

Wow. Well, I’m just going to have to own this embarrassment of a ranking. It’s hard to be more ludicrously wrong about something than to rank Bautista — let alone Smith — ahead of Judge. Judge, of course, laid waste to the league with an AL-best (and rookie record) 52 home runs, along with 114 RBIs and 1.049 OPS, on his way to a certain Rookie of the Year award and possible MVP honors. By contrast, Bautista’s 36 years caught up with him as he cratered to a .203 average and .674 OPS, his worst marks of any full season.

So, yeah, I overlooked Judge in a big way. In fairness, though, I wrote in April that he “has light-tower power and plenty of potential.” So maybe I should get partial credit? Perhaps? … No dice? All right, fine.

Betts, although he wasn’t quite at Judge’s level, had another excellent season for the Red Sox, with 24 homers, 102 RBIs, an .803 OPS and 26 steals in 29 attempts. And, according to FanGraphs, he was the best defensive right fielder in the league by far, with 31 Defensive Runs Saved (the second-highest was Judge’s nine).

Souza finally had the breakout year the Rays have been waiting for, bashing 30 home runs and driving in 78. Smith, meanwhile, provided the Orioles what they had hoped for when they acquired him, leading the team in OBP, but he started fewer than half the club’s games in right. Mark Trumbo and Joey Rickard each had at least 29 starts as well, and neither fared particularly well.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Judge, Yankees
2. Betts, Red Sox
3. Souza, Rays
4. Smith and others, Orioles
5. Bautista, Blue Jays

Designated Hitter

April rankings:

1. Hanley Ramirez, Red Sox
2. Mark Trumbo, Orioles
3. Kendrys Morales, Blue Jays
4. Matt Holliday, Yankees
5. Corey Dickerson, Rays

Four teams in the division ranked in the top six in the AL in OPS from their designated hitters. The exception was the Orioles, who placed a distant 14th with a .668 OPS. That’s probably not a surprise to Orioles fans who witnessed Trumbo’s season-long struggles.

Boston and Toronto each had a regular DH — Ramirez and Morales, respectively — and they put up nearly identical numbers. Morales had a bit more power (28 homers, 85 RBIs to Ramirez’s 23 and 62) while Ramirez led in OBP (.320 to .308). I’ll give Morales the edge because of durability; he played 150 games to Ramirez’s 133.

The Yankees and Rays, on the other hand, cobbled together a patchwork crew, with 10 starting designated hitters apiece. The Yankees got some early-season production from the 37-year-old Holliday, but he was limited to 105 games after being diagnosed with the Epstein-Barr virus, an infection that drained him of energy.

For Tampa Bay, Dickerson oddly had the most starts at DH (52) even though he also had the most starts in left field (87). Nobody else started more than 24 games at DH for the Rays.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Morales, Blue Jays
2. Ramirez, Red Sox
3. Holliday and a slew of others, Yankees
4. Dickerson and a slew of others, Rays
5. Trumbo, Orioles

Bench

April rankings:

1. Red Sox
2. Rays
3. Blue Jays
4. Yankees
5. Orioles

Among the many things that went right for the Yankees this year was their bench depth. The previously mentioned Hicks played very well as a fourth outfielder before grabbing the starting job in center field, and utility man Ronald Torreyes filled in capably while infielders Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro were on the shelf.

The Blue Jays, too, leaned heavily on their bench when their starting lineup was destroyed by injuries. Steve Pearce, Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney — who all started the season on the bench — ended up getting regular playing time, with mixed results. The Red Sox didn’t get much help from super utility guy Brock Holt, who batted just .200 this year, but catcher Sandy Leon and outfielder Chris Young contributed off the bench as did late-season acquisition Eduardo Nunez.

In April, I wrote that the Rays’ strong depth was highlighted by 26-year-old Nick Franklin — who didn’t end up playing a game for Tampa Bay in 2017, getting waived before Opening Day. Another great call by me. The Rays ended up with a revolving door of bench guys, most of whom weren’t good. And the Orioles, as usual, had little depth on their bench beyond backup catcher Caleb Joseph.

End-of-season rankings:

1. Yankees
2. Blue Jays
3. Rays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles