Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
Now that the World Series is over – and you can file this one in the memory bank and use it the next time a friend says baseball is boring – the hot stove season is about to heat up.
Well, sorta, kinda, maybe.
There are a whole lot of knobs on that stove, and they get turned up gradually as the offseason progresses.
Today, the stove gets turned on, and left at 1. Not sure you can boil water for the next week or two.
The first big step – and one that is purely procedural – is that all pending free agents come off 40-man rosters at 9 a.m. today and begin doing laps in the always risky and crowded free-agent pool.
For the Orioles, that means 10 roster sports open, although some will soon be filled by minor leaguers that need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.
The Orioles, technically speaking, can present any of their 10 free agents a $17.4 million qualifying offer within the next five days and then the player must accept or reject it within a 10-day period. There’s been some drama involving the Orioles and the qualifying offer in the past, but no sleep is going to be lost on it this winter.
No shot that any of the 10 get qualifying offers from the Orioles. A couple will get buyout checks, a few will get cursory calls to their agents and some will just get out of Camden Yards before the turnstiles hit them in the backs.
Here’s a look at the Orioles’ 10 pending free agents – players that were on the 40-man roster to end the season but can play elsewhere next year — and what the future holds for each.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
DH Pedro Alvarez
Yes, he was on the Orioles. I swear. El Toro had 32 at-bats in 14 September games and hit .313 with one homer. He batted .239 with 26 homers in 138 games at Triple-A Norfolk in what was a truly bizarre season for the 30-year-old. The Orioles signed him in February and gave him a chance to learn the outfield. He settled back in his DH role, and still has that great power that you’d think a MLB team could use. Alvarez will obviously look for a fresh start in 2018, especially with the Orioles’ designated hitter role blocked by Mark Trumbo. But the Orioles are only a phone call away if Alvarez needs another parachute.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
C Welington Castillo
This is a tricky one to predict. In late June or early July, I would have told you that Castillo would probably choose to stay with the Orioles and exercise his $7 million option. But after a second half in which the 30-year-old backstop hit .313 with 12 of his 20 homers and posted acceptable defensive numbers, Castillo would be foolish not to test the open market. The Orioles are OK with whatever happens here. Paying Castillo $7 million in 2018 is decent insurance for rookie Chance Sisco’s future development. But they’d also be OK with Sisco splitting time in the majors with Caleb Joseph in 2018. They’d also would be willing to re-negotiate a contract with Castillo if he rejects his option and then doesn’t find the free agent market to be warm. I’d bet my paycheck, however, that Castillo signs elsewhere for multiple years.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
INF Ryan Flaherty
The writing on the wall says this is the end of the Ryan Flaherty Era in Baltimore. If we had a dollar for every time manager Buck Showalter mentioned Flaherty’s value to the roster in the past six seasons – yes, he’s been with the Orioles for six seasons – we could probably pay Flaherty’s contract for 2018. The reality, though, is that while Flaherty’s position flexibility has been a security blanket for Showalter – Flaherty can be put anywhere defensively and hold his own – Showalter rarely used him. He’s had 520 plate appearances in the past three seasons, and he made $1.8 million in an injury-riddled 2017. If Showalter isn’t going to use his utility infielder much, the club might as well stick a cheaper option – Luis Sardinas, Steve Wilkerson – into that spot and let Flaherty go to the National League to get more playing time.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
OF Craig Gentry
Here’s another one of Showalter’s insurance policies. Gentry can swipe a base and play great defense at any of the three outfield positions. He played in 77 games for the Orioles, but had only 117 at-bats, primarily working as a defensive replacement and pinch-runner. He is a luxury to have on a 25-man roster, so you have to think the Orioles will try to re-sign the soon-to-be 34-year-old to a minor-league deal and have him ready for a call-up when needed. If he gets a big-league job elsewhere, he’d take it. If not, you think he’d come back to the Orioles because he knows Showalter is in his corner.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
SS J.J. Hardy
Hardy can still play at the major league level, at least defensively and at least several times a week. That’s the job he’ll be looking for this winter, and that position doesn’t exist with the Orioles now that Tim Beckham has claimed the starting shortstop slot. The Orioles won’t pick up Hardy’s $14 million option, instead paying him a $2 million buyout. They aren’t opposed to re-signing him to a lesser deal. The problem is he’s never played any position but shortstop, so he’s not really a utility infielder. And he’s never been a bench guy, either. My guess is the 35-year-old finds a job where he can start/platoon at shortstop (and not be a utility guy) or he retires.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
RHP Jeremy Hellickson
The Orioles were hoping that the 30-year-old right-hander could turn around a rough season when he was traded over from Philadelphia in July. It got worse. The flyball pitcher wasn’t a good fit for Camden Yards and he’ll be somewhere else next year. He’s not eligible for a qualifying offer, and the Orioles wouldn’t be making one anyway, the way the Phillies did last offseason.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez
That sound you hear is the albatross around the Orioles’ neck dropping to the floor. The four-year, $50 million contract, arguably the worst in franchise history, has expired. And Jimenez is off to a find a new job after going 32-42 with a 5.22 ERA in 117 games with the Orioles. Someone will make him an offer. He’s 33, is durable and has had some flourishes of success. I’d expect him to get a one-year deal in the National League.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
LHP Wade Miley
The Orioles will buy out Miley’s $12 million option for $500,000 and will entertain the idea of bringing him back on a one-year deal. But, because he is left-handed, that makes no sense for Miley, who was 10-20 with a 5.75 ERA in 43 starts with the Orioles. Given the dearth of starters, especially durable left-handed starters, Miley, who turns 31 this month, will have some choices. My expectation is they will be incentive-laden one-year deals in the National League. And he and the Orioles will part ways. I’d be shocked if he is pitching for the Orioles in 2018.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
OF Seth Smith
There are no complaints surrounding Smith. He was exactly what was advertised when the Orioles acquired him in the Yovani Gallardo deal with Seattle: A professional, disciplined, left-handed hitter with some power who is limited defensively but can play right field adequately. He’s 35, though, and the Orioles have no reason to bring him back as they give time to younger options (Austin Hays, Anthony Santander). He’ll be a platoon bat somewhere.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
RHP Chris Tillman
This is my pick for the most likely of these 10 to return to the Orioles. And yet my gut says he doesn’t. Tillman is an extremely loyal guy and he is close to fellow starters Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. And the Orioles would like him back. Despite his 7.84 ERA in 24 games this season, however, Tillman will have suitors on the open market. He has a career 4.43 ERA, all for the Orioles and in the brutal AL East, and some teams will focus on his career and not 2017. All things being equal, I think Tillman would return to Baltimore. But I don’t think all things will be equal. The Orioles weren’t aggressive in trying to sign him during his ugly season, and I think someone will outbid them now. The reality is that starting pitching is needed by just about every team in the majors.
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View Comments
I can't imagine any teams wanting to sign these guys - Miley and Jimenez are borderline major leaguers. Miley has now pitched for 4 teams without much success. Jimenez is a complete mess but who wants a guy who is so inconsistent. Tillman has been a very good pitcher for a while but who knows of he will ever return to the form he displayed from 2012 to 2016. He is a gamble for anyone.
Smith, Flaherty, and Gentry should be easy to replace while letting Hellickson go is a no-brainer. Castillo was a God-send for the Orioles and he can do well on the open market. Did anyone ever hear somebody say we missed Matt Wieters?
J.J. Hardy has been one of the most underrated players in baseball for most of his career. I am one who isn't sure Tim Beckham can be an everyday shortstop in the majors. He makes a high number of errors. I think the Os should bring back Hardy.
The chemistry on this team needs to change. It was very disappointing the way the Orioles played from Labor Day on. This was in sharp contrast to the 2015 season when they swept the Yankees on the final weekend to finish at .500.
"Did anyone ever hear somebody say we missed Matt Wieters?" you ask?
Heck, I think we missed Matt Wieters all season long. Is it all just a big coincidence that our middle of the pack starting rotation changed in to an all-timer awful staff? That it took almost the entire year for Gausman to get it together? Coincidence that our relief corps took a collective step backward? That nobody could throw strikes? I think the staff certainly missed Wieters, if not the fans.
Is it also merely a coincidence that Nationals Gio Gonzalez seemed to find the fountain of youth this past season? Coincidence that Matt Albers ERA was 2½ runs lower this year than his career ERA? That Stephen Strasberg dropped his ERA by ½ a run and finally lived up to his potential and had the best year of his career? That without ANY relievers on the team that the Nats ERA was still only 3.8? Maybe all this really was a big coincidence ... I dunno. But what I do know is Matt Wieters is a top notch catcher, and I for one missed him.
Herein lies the problem with small samples. One season doesn't provide adequate data to gauge how well catchers do with a staff as there are way too many variables that can skew data over a single season. Does the catcher make the staff better or worse, or does the staff make the catcher look better or worse? Not sure it's entirely fair to compare Gonzalez, Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark, Ross, and Jackson to Bundy, Gausman, Miley, Jimenez, Tillman, Hellickson, and the Norfolk Shuttle. The Nats starter all averaged over 5 innings pitched per outing, and three averaged over 6. The O's had one starter who averaged over 6 (Bundy) and two over 5 (Gausman and Hellickson.) Seems to me that a catcher has to be credited for the outstanding performances if he takes responsibility for the poor ones, like Castro, Givens, and Bleier. Maybe poor pitching is just poor pitching, no matter who's doing the catching. Personally, as much as I liked Wieters when he was in Baltimore, I don't see double the money in value over what Castillo provided. Interestingly, the Nats' catchers ranked dead last in Wins Above Average by position and the O's catchers ranked 3rd. Whereas the Nats' starting pitchers were 1st and the O's starters were 29th in WAA. That discrepancy is too much to lay on the catcher.
I didn't intend to imply the EVERYTHING was due to Matts departure. Certainly Matt wasn't throwing the ball himself. So yeah, I Gotcha. It was total coincidence.
Wasn't implying total coincidence. I'm just saying there's not enough sample size to say that either catcher has much to do with the performance of either staff. Need more than a season of data to make any kind of a real determination.
move Beckham to 2nd.
GSI: I'll buy you a real beer if Miley and Ubaldo don't get big league contracts this winter. Starting pitching is just too scarce. And these guys are durable, fwiw.
Look on the bright side, Yu Darvish price may have dropped.
Yubaldo Darvishenez?
He's not on the bargain rack. DD isn't interested.
More so, he's not on the bargain rack so he won't have to settle.
There really isn’t any one of these guys that need to come back.
Dan, I do agree with your assessment that Tillman is the most likely one of the bunch to return.
I have really like J.J.’s overall contributions to this team and would hope that when he decides to hang ‘em up that the Orioles would bring him back in some capacity; perhaps as a roving infield instructor for their minor league teams.
Happy first day of Hot Stove !!!
I don't know if Hardy will ever be a full-time coach. He's made enough money in his life to be secure for a long, long time and coaching is a tough life. But definitely could see him as a spring training instructor in the future.
I see a lot of guys who made some contributions but not enough to stay around. Tillman, I agree, is the likeliest to return. However, I have concerns about his shoulder. Something just doesn't seem right when watching him pitch. I did my own comparison during the season to previous years and he was in a different arm slot. That screams injury to me, knowing how I'm currently compensating with my own shoulder as I finish out our softball season and hoping the doctor doesn't find anything serious with it. Arm slot changes are most often the result of discomfort when a mechanical adjustment isn't required, and Tillman wasn't in need of a mechanical adjustment from 2016.
I had a strong appreciation for Gentry, Smith, and Castillo this year. Gentry did some things that nobody else on the roster could do, namely steal bases and cover a huge amount of territory in the OF. Smith could get hot and absolutely kill the ball. I never felt like he was a liability in the OF, particularly if he played there instead of Trumbo. Castillo's 49% rate throwing out base runners was a serious plus. And his bat plays nicely in OPACY. Of the three, I'd really like to see him back. I know it's a hard move to manufacture, but if there was any way the O's could re-sign him to a multi-year deal as a catcher/DH platoon guy and move Trumbo to someone else in need of a first baseman, I'd love to see that. Castillo is a solid #3 or #6 hole guy in a lineup, and he could catch enough games to have a fresh guy behind the plate regularly. I'd like Sisco to have another year to develop. Castillo would be a third catcher but he'd be consuming the DH spot in the lineup. Also takes care of the emergency catcher spot, reducing the damage (OK, this is said in jest) from losing Flaherty.
Of the ones leaving, or at least likely to leave, I'll miss JJ the most. His contributions to the O's renaissance since 2012 have been tremendous. He's been the consummate professional, playing a great SS and, with the exception of the last couple of years, providing adequate or better offensive production. His influence with Manny and Schoop has been huge. I hope the O's find a way to bring him back into the organization. He's smart and likable. He'd make an amazing coach, in my opinion.
UJ and Miley? Yes, I know there's a dearth of starting pitching. But I don't see UJ as a MLB quality pitcher. And I hope Miley ends up somewhere in the AL East so we can see him three or four times a year. They both seem like hard workers and competitors, but the skill set seems lacking to my eyes. I'm trying to picture a rotation that either of them improves, particularly when considering how needy for pitching the O's are and we won't pick them back up. The Mets, Reds, and Tigers had worse staff ERAs than the O's, but Cincy and Detroit had dumpster fires for bullpens and the Mets had injuries to key pieces.
On a side note, there's a part of me that is discouraged when I hear O's leadership commenting on needing left-handed pitching like it's an absolute necessity. Yes, a lefty would be nice, but I'd take competent right-handed pitching over journeyman lefties any day.
Good stuff Big Daddy. I asked him about the arm slot stuff. He said he just couldn't find a spot that he felt comfortable with. Not pain just a comfortable slot where he could effectively throw all of his pitches.
Really respect J.J. but .... time to go for ALL the above.
I could see it.
This really makes clear what a reclamation project the Orioles are - out of these 10 free agents, nine had seasons ranging from mediocre to terrible - only one, Castillo, had what could be considered a good year
as for the Wieters debate, I don't get it ... the guy batted .225 for the Nationals with 10 home runs - the Castillo/Joseph combo was far superior
Come on Dan — the real Albatross around the Os neck is playing 1st base . The Davis contract will surely go down as the worst in franchise history.
The O’s have place all their eggs in the Bundy/Gausman basket. If they don’t become legitimate #2 starters (at a minimum) then we aren’t going anywhere.
The real conversation should be what are the Os going to do wIth Manny? And then Schoop?
Great username here. Made me chuckle.
Dan, who is replacing Executive director of International Recruiting Fred Ferreira? Did his contract expire or was he let go?? Any chance he'd share some words about the O's approach to scouting & international signings?? The O's operations are about as clear as mud, I bet he'd provide interesting insight
Not hearing any names at this point. And yes it'd be interesting.
Well......
;)
This might be heart more than head, but I see Tilly, J.J., Flash, and Gentry (on a MiL deal) returning.
Deuces to the rest. (But thanks for representing the Bird well.)