It’s BBWAA Awards Week: Here’s a look at the races — with predictions for each

Although there have been other season wrap-up awards already announced – Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, et cetera – the big four will be presented this week: Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young and MVP.

The Baseball Writers Association of America’s awards announcements kick off tonight with the American League and National League Rookies of the Year. It’s the only dog the Orioles have in these fights: Left fielder Trey Mancini is one of three finalists, along with Boston outfielder Andrew Benintendi and New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, who appears to be a lock for the award.

Mancini finishing as a finalist is a rare accomplishment for an Oriole. You have to go back to Daniel Cabrera – yes, Daniel Cabrera – in 2004 for the last time an Oriole finished Top 3 in the voting. The last Oriole to win was Gregg Olson way back in 1989.

That ignominious streak will continue. Judge probably will be a unanimous winner; we’ll find out shortly after 6 tonight on the awards show, which airs on MLB Network.

Each day, through Thursday, there will be a new set of winners announced (managers on Tuesday, Cy Youngs on Wednesday and MVPs on Thursday).

Full disclosure: I am a longtime member of the BBWAA and I voted for one of the awards this year. Since we’re not allowed to reveal our vote until the winners are named, I’m not going to disclose which category I voted for. That’ll keep the mystery going.

Here are the candidates for each of the four major awards in both leagues and who I think should win each one.

AL Rookie of the Year

Candidates: Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox; Aaron Judge, Yankees; Trey Mancini, Orioles

It’s an American League East sweep of candidates. I saw each one play a lot, including Mancini, a first baseman by trade who learned left field in the spring and seized the starting job from Hyun Soo Kim. Mancini has the most surprising and unexpected story of this trio. His narrative won’t be enough to supplant Judge’s amazing production which included an AL-best 52 homers and a .422 on-base percentage.

Winner: Judge

NL Rookie of the Year

Candidates: Josh Bell, Pirates; Cody Bellinger, Dodgers; Paul DeJong, Cardinals

DeJong is the Mancini of the NL, a former fourth-rounder who wasn’t on many prospect radars, and Bell, a heralded prospect, had a good season. But Bellinger, like Judge in the AL, made this one a no-contest. That’s what happens when you hit 39 homers in 480 at-bats at age 22. I’d imagine this one also is a unanimous decision.

Winner: Bellinger

AL Manager of the Year

Candidates: Terry Francona, Indians; A.J. Hinch, Astros; Paul Molitor, Twins

If the postseason counted for these awards, Hinch would be the easy winner. Not only did his talented squad win 101 games, but it beat another 100-plus-victories club, the Dodgers, in the World Series. (The last team to accomplish that was the 1970 Orioles over the Cincinnati Reds). But votes are due before the start of the first playoff game. Francona’s team won the most games in the AL, 102, but Molitor’s club jumped from a league-worst 103 losses in 2016 to an 85-77 record and a playoff appearance in 2017.

Winner: Molitor

NL Manager of the Year

Candidates: Bud Black, Rockies; Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks; Dave Roberts, Dodgers

The National League West was the best division in baseball in 2017; certainly, it had the best collection of top-tier teams. Roberts deserves major credit for posting the most wins (104) in the majors this year, and he could get the nod. But Lovullo’s club completely reversed its record, going from 69-93 in 2016 to 93-69 this season. Voters love the turnaround teams.

Winner: Lovullo

AL Cy Young

Candidates: Corey Kluber, Indians; Chris Sale, Red Sox; Luis Severino, Yankees

Severino had a breakout season, and could be in this conversation for years to come, but this is a two-man race between Sale and Kluber. You can’t go wrong with either, but Kluber did lead in ERA, WHIP, WAR and wins while Sale threw the most innings and had the most strikeouts in the AL. It’s a cop-out to pick them both. And I think there is a clear winner.

Winner: Kluber

NL Cy Young

Candidates: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Max Scherzer, Nationals; Stephen Strasburg, Nationals

No matter what happened this postseason, Kershaw is baseball’s best pitcher. But he didn’t have the best season, partially because he was limited by injuries to 27 starts and 175 innings. He was splendid when he did pitch, but so were Scherzer, who led the NL in strikeouts and WAR, and Strasburg. Nationals’ teammate Gio Gonzalez also deserved some recognition this year. Yet one ace emerged above them all.

Winner: Scherzer

AL MVP

Candidates: Jose Altuve, Astros; Aaron Judge, Yankees; Jose Ramirez, Indians

Ramirez had a good season for a great team, but I’m a little surprised he beat out perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout as a finalist. Trout should finish fourth in the voting and Ramirez will get third. The question is will the 5-foot-6 Altuve outpace the 6-foot-7 Judge? I think so because Altuve was consistent all season whereas Judge was outstanding at the beginning and end, and stumbled in the middle. Plus, Altuve did everything in 2017, including hit 24 homers, steal 32 bases and win the batting title. And did we mention he’s 5-foot-6 (or shorter)?

Winner: Altuve

NL MVP

Candidates: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks; Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins; Joey Votto, Reds

This is where the biggest snubs can be found. Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado have legitimate cases for MVP – and they were on winning teams. Stanton and Votto weren’t. Stanton led the majors with 59 homers and 132 RBIs and Votto led all qualifiers in on-base percentage and WAR. They are great candidates, too. Goldschmidt, however, did everything well, and his team made the playoffs. I think this is the most uncertain race of them all this year. My gut says it will be Stanton. But that’s not what I would do. If the candidates are all worthy –and these three are – I lean toward the guy who helped his team make the playoffs.

Winner: Goldschmidt