Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA Today Sports
Although there have been other season wrap-up awards already announced – Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, et cetera – the big four will be presented this week: Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young and MVP.
The Baseball Writers Association of America’s awards announcements kick off tonight with the American League and National League Rookies of the Year. It’s the only dog the Orioles have in these fights: Left fielder Trey Mancini is one of three finalists, along with Boston outfielder Andrew Benintendi and New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge, who appears to be a lock for the award.
Mancini finishing as a finalist is a rare accomplishment for an Oriole. You have to go back to Daniel Cabrera – yes, Daniel Cabrera – in 2004 for the last time an Oriole finished Top 3 in the voting. The last Oriole to win was Gregg Olson way back in 1989.
That ignominious streak will continue. Judge probably will be a unanimous winner; we’ll find out shortly after 6 tonight on the awards show, which airs on MLB Network.
Each day, through Thursday, there will be a new set of winners announced (managers on Tuesday, Cy Youngs on Wednesday and MVPs on Thursday).
Full disclosure: I am a longtime member of the BBWAA and I voted for one of the awards this year. Since we’re not allowed to reveal our vote until the winners are named, I’m not going to disclose which category I voted for. That’ll keep the mystery going.
Here are the candidates for each of the four major awards in both leagues and who I think should win each one.
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
AL Rookie of the Year
Candidates: Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox; Aaron Judge, Yankees; Trey Mancini, Orioles
It’s an American League East sweep of candidates. I saw each one play a lot, including Mancini, a first baseman by trade who learned left field in the spring and seized the starting job from Hyun Soo Kim. Mancini has the most surprising and unexpected story of this trio. His narrative won’t be enough to supplant Judge’s amazing production which included an AL-best 52 homers and a .422 on-base percentage.
Winner: Judge
Photo credit: Richard Mackson/USA Today Sports
NL Rookie of the Year
Candidates: Josh Bell, Pirates; Cody Bellinger, Dodgers; Paul DeJong, Cardinals
DeJong is the Mancini of the NL, a former fourth-rounder who wasn’t on many prospect radars, and Bell, a heralded prospect, had a good season. But Bellinger, like Judge in the AL, made this one a no-contest. That’s what happens when you hit 39 homers in 480 at-bats at age 22. I’d imagine this one also is a unanimous decision.
Winner: Bellinger
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
AL Manager of the Year
Candidates: Terry Francona, Indians; A.J. Hinch, Astros; Paul Molitor, Twins
If the postseason counted for these awards, Hinch would be the easy winner. Not only did his talented squad win 101 games, but it beat another 100-plus-victories club, the Dodgers, in the World Series. (The last team to accomplish that was the 1970 Orioles over the Cincinnati Reds). But votes are due before the start of the first playoff game. Francona’s team won the most games in the AL, 102, but Molitor’s club jumped from a league-worst 103 losses in 2016 to an 85-77 record and a playoff appearance in 2017.
Winner: Molitor
Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports
NL Manager of the Year
Candidates: Bud Black, Rockies; Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks; Dave Roberts, Dodgers
The National League West was the best division in baseball in 2017; certainly, it had the best collection of top-tier teams. Roberts deserves major credit for posting the most wins (104) in the majors this year, and he could get the nod. But Lovullo’s club completely reversed its record, going from 69-93 in 2016 to 93-69 this season. Voters love the turnaround teams.
Winner: Lovullo
Photo credit: Ken Blaze/USA Today Sports
AL Cy Young
Candidates: Corey Kluber, Indians; Chris Sale, Red Sox; Luis Severino, Yankees
Severino had a breakout season, and could be in this conversation for years to come, but this is a two-man race between Sale and Kluber. You can’t go wrong with either, but Kluber did lead in ERA, WHIP, WAR and wins while Sale threw the most innings and had the most strikeouts in the AL. It’s a cop-out to pick them both. And I think there is a clear winner.
Winner: Kluber
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
NL Cy Young
Candidates: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers; Max Scherzer, Nationals; Stephen Strasburg, Nationals
No matter what happened this postseason, Kershaw is baseball’s best pitcher. But he didn’t have the best season, partially because he was limited by injuries to 27 starts and 175 innings. He was splendid when he did pitch, but so were Scherzer, who led the NL in strikeouts and WAR, and Strasburg. Nationals’ teammate Gio Gonzalez also deserved some recognition this year. Yet one ace emerged above them all.
Winner: Scherzer
Photo credit: Joy R. Absalon
AL MVP
Candidates: Jose Altuve, Astros; Aaron Judge, Yankees; Jose Ramirez, Indians
Ramirez had a good season for a great team, but I’m a little surprised he beat out perennial MVP candidate Mike Trout as a finalist. Trout should finish fourth in the voting and Ramirez will get third. The question is will the 5-foot-6 Altuve outpace the 6-foot-7 Judge? I think so because Altuve was consistent all season whereas Judge was outstanding at the beginning and end, and stumbled in the middle. Plus, Altuve did everything in 2017, including hit 24 homers, steal 32 bases and win the batting title. And did we mention he’s 5-foot-6 (or shorter)?
Winner: Altuve
Photo credit: Richard Mackson/USA Today Sports
NL MVP
Candidates: Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks; Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins; Joey Votto, Reds
This is where the biggest snubs can be found. Colorado’s Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado have legitimate cases for MVP – and they were on winning teams. Stanton and Votto weren’t. Stanton led the majors with 59 homers and 132 RBIs and Votto led all qualifiers in on-base percentage and WAR. They are great candidates, too. Goldschmidt, however, did everything well, and his team made the playoffs. I think this is the most uncertain race of them all this year. My gut says it will be Stanton. But that’s not what I would do. If the candidates are all worthy –and these three are – I lean toward the guy who helped his team make the playoffs.
Winner: Goldschmidt
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View Comments
In an Awards season that is light on drama, I pretty much agree with all of your picks excepting Goldy over Stanton (which you mentioned was probably going to happen anyway), since Stanton's got the sexier numbers. One of the most surprising things about this season was how little attention was paid to Giancarlo's run at 61. It got a little bit of coverage, but nowhere near what I expected. particularly since the end of the playoff races was so anti-climactic. Let's face it, 73 home runs is now sitting next to 511 wins and .424 as an untouchable figure created in a bygone era. Barring some incredible breakthrough in human development, or MLB going the way of bodybuilding and allowing PED usage, no one is getting there again. Not only is 61 viewed by most as the "legitimate" HR record, it's also the one a Stanton or a Judge has a chance to actually break. It's just a pity that no one seems to care.
But it's not the record. I get your point and pretty much agree with it. But 61 is never gonna get the fanfare again. It'll be recognized but not glorified.
I wouldn't bet against Judge as making a run at 70 some day.
I don't agree with your Manager of the Year opinions. A.J. Hinch has to be Manager of the Year in the A.L. If he doesn't get it, it has to be Francona. Molitor's team got to the Wild Card, a nice achievement but the Astros and Indians were the best teams in the A.L.
Has to be Dave Roberts in the N.L. The Dodgers were on a record-setting pace for the most of the season and that is a team with a number of egos. The Rockies and the Diamondbacks had decent seasons but they were wild card entries.
I know the sentiment is to give the award to the surprise team in each league. But, there weren't any major surprises among the division winners.
Can't really argue against the job Hinch did, but I think Molitor gets it on the strength of the Twins turnaround and that he is a name. Let's be honest, this year the American League was three good teams and a bunch of bad ones, which Minnesota managed to parlay into an extra days pay.
I think Roberts has a chance. But I'd be blown away if Molitor doesn't win. He had baseball's worst team and he made the playoffs. Hinch had a really good team that was supposed to win its division and did. Credit there. But remember playoff performances don't matter for the award.