What are the internal options for the 2018 rotation? Here’s a list (and it’s not pretty)

The Orioles need to overhaul their starting rotation in 2018.

That’s not a radical statement. I’m not breaking any news. Everyone knows it.

Based on starting rotation ERA, the 2017 Orioles posted the worst mark in the modern-day history of the franchise – dating back to when the team moved to Baltimore more than six decades ago. The club’s starters combined for a 5.70 ERA, easily destroying the previous worst mark of 5.51 in 2008.

Unless plans change as the offseason progresses, the Orioles likely won’t bring back four of their six primary starters from last season – Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley and Jeremy Hellickson. Those four pitchers accounted for more than half – 86, to be exact – of the Orioles’ starts in 2017. But they also combined for a 6.76 ERA and averaged less than five innings per start. That’s horrendous.

Right-handers Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy will hold down the first two spots in the 2018 rotation. So, as my colleague Dan Connolly noted in a recent Q&A on BaltimoreBaseball.com, that means the club needs to add three starters in less than five months before Opening Day.

But the Orioles have a couple of problems…

For one, as Dan mentioned in the Q&A, the club isn’t going to win a bidding war for a top-of-the-rotation starter. And thanks to Camden Yards’ reputation as a hitter-friendly ballpark, you’re probably not going to see many mid-level starters picking the Orioles if other teams are interested. While the Orioles could deal from a position of strength – their bullpen – to acquire some new starting pitchers, that would leave them thin in that area if the rotation reinforcements don’t work out.

No matter how they do it, one simple fact isn’t changing: The Orioles need to replace more than half their starts in 2018. With that in mind, we created a list of internal candidates who could fill the void. We’ve ranked these pitchers from most likely to least likely to help the major-league rotation in 2018.

Based on that criterion, you’ll notice that several of the club’s top pitching prospects aren’t on this list.

Left-hander Alex Wells, who won the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year award after going 11-5 with a 2.38 ERA in 25 starts for Low-A Delmarva, will need more time in the minors next year. The same goes for the Orioles’ 2016 first- and second-round picks – right-hander Cody Sedlock and left-hander Keegan Akin – who battled injuries throughout the 2017 season and didn’t dominate at High-A Frederick the way that they did with Short-A Aberdeen during the previous summer.

Since he’s only 19, last year’s first-round selection, DL Hall, will progress slowly through the system. And a handful of other lower-level pitchers may be on the right path – but won’t provide immediate help.

Let’s take a look at the internal possibilities, listed in order of potential help each can provide for the 2018 season. Warning: It’s not an encouraging list. You may want to shield your eyes occasionally.

RHP Miguel Castro

2018 Opening Day Age: 23

2017 Team: Orioles/Bowie

2017 Stats: 3-0, 4.44 ERA, 24 1/3 innings (Bowie); 3-3, 3.53 ERA, 66 1/3 innings (Orioles)

Baseball Reference Page

One of the Orioles’ brightest spots, Castro made 15 relief appearances of at least two innings in 2017. The Dominican Republic native only gave up one hit in six shutout innings out of the bullpen on August 3 after the Detroit Tigers roughed Chris Tillman up for seven runs (five earned) in two-plus innings. It was his longest outing since August 2014 with Single-A Lansing in the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization. With Castro atop this list, you can tell a lot about the state of the Orioles’ rotation. He has only made 36 starts in six years as a professional (just six in the past three seasons). One of those starts – his only one in the majors – came against the Tampa Bay Rays in the next-to-last game of 2017. In that outing, Castro suffered the loss after giving up three runs and six hits in 3 1/3 innings. He’s a big question mark, but the Orioles will see what he can do in spring training. Castro is out of minor league options, so at a minimum, he’ll likely have a spot in the bullpen in 2018.

RHP Gabriel Ynoa

2018 Opening Day Age: 24

2017 Team: Orioles/Norfolk

2017 Stats: 6-9, 5.25 ERA, 106 1/3 innings (Norfolk); 2-3, 4.15 ERA, 34 2/3 innings (Orioles)

Baseball Reference Page

Acquired in February from the New York Mets, the Dominican Republic native pitched to mixed results in a starting role for the Orioles at the end of the year. Overall, Ynoa went 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA and averaged five innings over that four-start stretch. His best performance came September 21 in the Orioles’ 3-1 win over the Rays. Ynoa held Tampa Bay to one run and five hits in eight innings. However, he suffered the loss in his other three September starts. Ynoa picked up the win in his Orioles debut against the Chicago White Sox on May 5. He threw six shutout innings out of the bullpen after Miley was forced to leave the game in the first inning. Like Castro, Ynoa will get a long look for a rotation spot in spring training. But his 5.25 ERA in 21 starts at Triple-A last season isn’t particularly attractive for a club that needs to overhaul its starting rotation.

RHP Mike Wright

2018 Opening Day Age: 28

2017 Team: Orioles/Norfolk

2017 Stats: 4-6, 3.69 ERA, 83 innings (Norfolk); 0-0, 5.76 ERA, 25 innings (Orioles)

Baseball Reference Page

Over the past three seasons, the 2011 third-round pick has bounced back and forth between Triple-A and the major leagues. Wright has failed to take advantage of every opportunity with the Orioles. In 43 major-league appearances (21 starts), he is 6-9 with a 5.86 ERA. Wright went 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA in 12 games (nine starts) with the club in 2015. The following year, he earned a spot in the Opening Day rotation. However, Wright struggled mightily and lost his rotation spot by early June. Last season, he made 16 starts for Norfolk and pitched in 13 games for the Orioles. While his performance with the Tides was respectable, he once again struggled in the majors. Wright also spent some time on the disabled list in the middle of the year with right shoulder bursitis. It’s finally make or break time for Wright. He hasn’t found success at the top level. Now, he’s also out of minor league options. Several evaluators believe he could be a dominating set-up man, but, for now, he’s still a starter.

RHP Alec Asher

2018 Opening Day Age: 26

2017 Team: Orioles/Norfolk

2017 Stats: 3-3, 4.65 ERA, 50 1/3 innings (Norfolk); 2-5, 5.25 ERA, 60 innings (Orioles)

Baseball Reference Page

At the end of the 2015 season, the 2012 fourth-round selection made seven starts for the Philadelphia Phillies. He went an abysmal 0-6 with a 9.31 ERA. A year later, Asher fared much better in his second season-ending stint in the Phillies rotation with a 2-1 record and 2.28 ERA in five starts. The Orioles acquired Asher from Philadelphia in late March, and he split the season between the major leagues and Triple-A. Although Asher struggled some in six starts with the Orioles (1-4, 6.98 ERA), he was 1-1 with a 3.56 ERA in 18 relief appearances. At Norfolk, Asher made 10 starts. He had a 4.65 ERA overall, but those numbers were skewed when he allowed seven runs in 1 2/3 innings against Gwinnett on Aug. 30. Before that start, he had a 3.51 ERA. Asher appears better suited for a long-relief role. But, depending on what happens this offseason, he could earn a starting spot in the spring.

 

LHP Jayson Aquino/RHP Tyler Wilson

 

Aquino

2018 Opening Day Age: 25

2017 Team: Orioles/Norfolk

2017 Stats: 3-10, 4.24 ERA, 114 2/3 innings (Norfolk); 1-2, 7.43 ERA, 13 1/3 innings (Orioles)

Baseball Reference Page

Wilson

2018 Opening Day Age: 28

2017 Team: Orioles/Norfolk

2017 Stats: 7-8, 4.74 ERA, 114 innings (Norfolk); 2-2, 7.04 ERA, 15 1/3 innings (Orioles)

Baseball Reference Page

It made sense to put these two together. Aquino, a Dominican Republic native, made one start for the Orioles in 2017. He earned the win after holding the Boston Red Sox to two runs in six innings on April 22. However, Aquino allowed six runs in two innings in two relief appearances against the New York Yankees a week later. After being sent to Norfolk, he returned for one more start in July against the Milwaukee Brewers. Meanwhile, Wilson has bounced back and forth between Norfolk and the majors since Opening Day, 2015. Overall, he is 8-10 with a 5.02 ERA in 42 major-league appearances (19 starts). Aquino and Wilson will enter the discussion for the Opening Day rotation if they re-sign with the club — and the Orioles have interest in retaining both. But since they were removed from the 40-man roster in early September, and the Orioles overlooked each for available opportunities at that time, I’d consider them both extreme longshots for 2018.

LHP Chris Lee

2018 Opening Day Age: 25

2017 Team: Norfolk

2017 Stats: 5-6, 5.11 ERA, 116 1/3 innings

Baseball Reference Page

In eight games (seven starts) with Bowie to begin the 2016 season, Lee went 5-0 with a 2.98 ERA. The 2011 fourth-round pick, whom the Orioles acquired from the Houston Astros in May 2015, appeared to be on the fast track to the major leagues. Until he wasn’t. In late May 2016 – after throwing a career-high eight innings – Lee suffered a strained shoulder/lat muscle that forced him to miss the rest of the year. Although Lee visited famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews in the fall, he returned healthy to start last season. But the quick start to the 2016 season was long gone. Lee struggled to a 5-6 record and 5.11 ERA with Norfolk in 2017. He lost his spot in the Tides’ rotation in late July before finishing the season with one final start in September. If Lee can prove he’s healthy and return to form with Norfolk, he could work his way into the Orioles’ rotation in 2018.

RHP Hunter Harvey

2018 Opening Day Age: 23

2017 Team: GCL Orioles/Aberdeen/Delmarva

2017 Stats: 0-1, 0.96 ERA, 18 2/3 innings (total across all three levels)

Baseball Reference Page

Harvey hasn’t spent a lot of time on the mound since the Orioles took him with the No. 22 pick in the 2013 first-year-player draft. He has only made 38 starts and thrown 144 1/3 innings in five years as a professional. That includes missing the entire 2015 season due to injuries. In his brief career, the right-hander – who won’t turn 23 until December – has suffered through several bouts of soreness in his throwing arm. He also fractured his right leg after getting hit with a comebacker during spring training in 2015 and suffered a sports hernia at the beginning of the following season. But the Orioles hope that’s all in the past. Harvey underwent Tommy John elbow-ligament reconstruction surgery in July 2016 and recovered to make eight starts in the organization at the end of 2017. The Orioles added Harvey to their 40-man roster Monday to guarantee he can’t be selected in the Rule 5 draft next month. He’ll continue his comeback in the minors – at High-A Frederick or Double-A Bowie — to start the 2018 season. If all goes well, though, Harvey could play a role later next season for the Orioles.

RHP David Hess

2018 Opening Day Age: 24

2017 Team: Bowie

2017 Stats: 11-9, 3.85 ERA, 154 1/3 innings

Baseball Reference Page

The 2014 fifth-round selection has spent the past two years with Bowie. In 2016, Hess led the Eastern League with 13 losses. His 5.37 ERA ranked third-worst among qualifying starters in the league, too. But he pitched much better last season. In 27 games (26 starts), Hess went 11-9 with a 3.85 ERA. Although he had an ERA above 4.00 in every month except August (2.25), he ranked among the Top 10 in the league in several categories – including WHIP (sixth, 1.23) and strikeouts (third, 123). The Orioles added him to the 40-man roster Monday to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. He’ll likely start the 2018 season in Triple-A. If Hess does well, he could hop onto the Norfolk-Baltimore shuttle at any point.

LHP Tanner Scott

2018 Opening Day Age: 23

2017 Team: Orioles/Bowie

2017 Stats: 0-2, 2.22 ERA, 69 innings (Bowie); 0-0, 10.80 ERA, 1 2/3 innings (Orioles)

Baseball Reference Page

To start the 2017 season, the organization moved the flame-throwing left-hander into a starting role. The move appeared to work for Scott as he lowered his ERA and WHIP significantly from the previous year. The 2014 sixth-round pick – who throws a fastball that can hit 100 mph and a slider that’s generally in the mid-to-upper 80s – pitched to a sub-2.00 ERA for most of last season before finishing with a 2.22 ERA after he went 0-1 with a 5.63 ERA in three August starts. As Orioles fans know, he posted a 10.80 ERA in two major-league relief appearances to wrap up the regular season. Scott also took part in the prestigious Arizona Fall League and dominated in the “Fall Stars Game” on Nov. 4. During that game, he struck out four batters – all using his slider – in two innings. While Scott’s powerful arm is certainly intriguing, he’s a stretch for an Orioles’ rotation spot. First, Scott needs to show that he can stay consistent and build on his 2017 performance. Plus, the club would be better suited to keep him in a relief role – with a long-term hope that he’ll take over as closer one day. We’ll see.

RHP Lucas Long

2018 Opening Day Age: 25

2017 Team: Bowie

2017 Stats: 9-6, 2.95 ERA, 128 1/3 innings

Baseball Reference Page

Through the first three months of last season, the 2014 24th-round pick pitched mostly in relief at Bowie. Long made a few spot starts during that stretch, but he didn’t shift into a full-time role in the rotation until after the Eastern League All-Star break. He went 4-3 with a 4.07 ERA in the second half. That’s not terrible, but it’s much worse than his 3-2 record and 1.90 ERA in 17 appearances out of the bullpen in 2017. Long appears to have higher upside as a reliever, and is seemingly viewed that way by the organization. But, depending on how the offseason shakes out, the Orioles could give Long a chance to pitch every fifth day in Norfolk’s rotation in 2018. If he does well and the Orioles’ rotation is struggling early, he could be promoted to the majors. For now, we’re talking about a lot of “ifs” that would need to happen. The Orioles decided not to protect him from the Rule 5, so he is not currently on the 40-man roster. We’re talking a major longshot for the 2018 rotation.

LHP John Means

2018 Opening Day Age: 24

2017 Team: Bowie

2017 Stats: 9-9, 4.11 ERA, 142 1/3 innings

Baseball Reference Page

As we continue the list of pitchers who could help the Orioles at some point in 2018 – but probably not on Opening Day – we turn toward the 2014 11th-round selection. In 26 games (24 starts) for the Baysox last season, Means proved to be fairly inconsistent. He earned the organization’s Minor League Pitcher of the Month award after going 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA in five April starts. However, Means struggled over the next two months (3-6, 6.66 ERA) before recovering to go 4-0 with a 2.39 ERA in six games in July. He finished second in the Eastern League with 124 strikeouts in 142 1/3 innings. Means also went 4-8 with a 4.69 ERA in 18 starts for Bowie in 2016, so he’s not overpowering. He’ll need more work in the minors before the Orioles consider him for the rotation. Plus, another club could take a shot on Means in December’s Rule 5 draft if it thinks he could survive in the majors for all of 2018. The bottom line is lefties get longer leashes, but he may not have the stuff to be a regular, big-league starter.