Type quietly in the Tap Room today.
Your barkeep has a hangover.
It’s not from partying, though. It’s from spending four days at baseball’s annual winter meetings, where the atmosphere is filled with stale air and staler rumors.
But sometimes those rumors keep rolling until they become something. That’s what happened this week, when the smoke from the Manny Machado speculation grew until there is definitely fire.
I can’t tell you how many people have asked me in the last 72 hours whether I thought Machado will actually be traded. My answer now is yes, I don’t think the Orioles go through all of this prep work and talk without ultimately pulling the trigger.
I couch it, however, by saying there are so many cooks in the Orioles’ kitchen that the meal is often altered by the time it gets to owner Peter Angelos, who, on occasion, will toss in a few ingredients of his own.
He has the reputation of being a meddler, but that’s not really my experience in covering this team since 2001. Angelos is an opinion gatherer – one trait of a successful attorney – and sometimes that results in slow maneuvering and then unexpected changes at the 11th hour. The final decision, ultimately, is his, so he certainly has the prerogative to change his mind.
But it creates a situation that’s almost impossible to predict.
We know that Angelos typically has no interest in making the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox better. But would that change if all of his advisors tell him that the Yankees, for instance, are offering the best package for Machado?
You can’t answer that. But here’s what you can answer:
Would you trade Machado to the division rival Yankees or Red Sox if one of those offered the best package?
I would. Here’s what I wrote about it.
Now it’s your turn. I’ll be in the back icing my forehead.
Tap-In Question: Would you deal Manny Machado within the division if it were for the best package of players?
It seems like the easiest trivia question ever posed: Which manager of the Orioles barked…
Question: Do the Orioles really think they can find an arm comparable to Corbin Burnes…
The Orioles have a new backup catcher to Adley Rutschman, and Gary Sánchez, who began…
The Orioles’ new outfielder, Tyler O’Neill, doesn’t know any of his new teammates, but he…
The Orioles signed 35-year-old right-handed pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano to a contract reportedly worth $13 million.…
Starting pitcher Corbin Burnes remains a free agent, and the Orioles would like him to…
View Comments
Yes. Given the situation, I think the Orioles have to look for the best possible package. However, I do think we should at least ask for a wee bit more from the Yankees or Red Sox than other teams. Even if it's an extra Single A pitcher, the AL East team needs to pay more. Plus, if we get a few semi-Machados in the deal, we can spin those guys a few years down the road, too!
Seriously ... we just can't afford to stand pat any more. I say trade Machado and the B's for the best deals out there and start ... well, re-tooling this team to be younger, faster, etc.
(A bit off-tangent, Dan ...) I really think if we get a good return for trading Manny, Brach, and Britton, we can look at 2018 as a year to give the young guys a look-see, then build more for 2019. I'm not writing off this season - far from it. We've seen via the Yankees what a young, hungry team with no expectations can do. But if we get a strong core in place, re-sign Schoop and Jones, build pitching depth ... who knows?
Yes, I'm drinking the orage kool-aid. Always have, always will. :-)
No, General. I think it’s reasonable. Talent is the separator. But a talented team that doesn’t know it’s not supposed to be good is dangerous. Drink chip
Manny is gone. Manny has been gone for several years. When he refused to discuss an extension a couple of years ago, it was clear that he was gone. When he repeatedly commented on how A-Rod was his childhood hero, it was clear that he was gone. As much as I hated the Davis contract, it had no bearing on Manny because, you guessed it, he was gone. I love the American League East but hate the financial inequities that separate the teams. The Yankees and the Red Sox have a distinct financial advantage over the rest of the division, but the O's, Rays, & Jays have been able to be competitive because their front offices understand that they have to function in competitive windows prior to selling off and starting over. It's time to sell. As a seller, we have to get the greatest return for our asset while it is still our asset. Make them take Davis too!
It’s funny. The Davis thing has been mentioned to me several times. I understand the sentiment but it’s not worth the reduction in the overall package. Os need more talent quickly. Especially talent-wise.
Under normal circumstances-no. But the gut says that Manny will not sign an extension(unless he's with Yankees)with anybody and eventually declare free agency. It almost seems inevitable that he won't resist the glamor of NY and sign there. For that reason suck it up and send him to the Yankees get Chase Adams,Torreyes,etc. One side note-- I don't blame the O's for banning the 72 hour negotiation period. What are they gonna do trade Manny,wait 3 days,have Manny say no then do it all over again? Trade him to NY,I'll cry but I'll get over it. Don't understand why the whole baseball world feels this is a dumb thing for the O's to do but then again the whole baseball world loves to mock every move made by them.
Agreed. On 72 hours and on the inevitability w Machado
If I'm trading Manny within the division, it needs to be a haul of epic proportions. Manny is a premier talent in MLB, one of probably the top 5 players in all of baseball. If the Yankees come calling, knowing that he's likely going to sign in FA with them, or maybe even extend, then I want them to feel like they spent the night in a sleazy hotel room with Al Franken and Roy Moore when the deal is done. Outside the division, if I think there's a chance that Manny is being flipped to a team within the division (such as the rumors that circulated around the White Sox offer) I'm taking the same approach. If he's going to a big money team that is more intent upon contending now (Angels and Cards come to mind) and I figure there's an extension looming with them, I may approach it a bit differently. But there's no way I don't close the talent gap on a divisional rival in this trade. The teams in the division that can orchestrate such a trade are rich on the farm and on the parent club. I need three starting pitchers and the Sox and Yankees have plenty of pitching talent. You want Manny, it's going to hurt to get him.
Now, I realize that Manny leaves as a FA this year. But we have the trade deadline to fall back on too. If he doesn't move now, he stays until then and someone who sees one bat as the difference between wild card and division or division winner and pennant will more than likely cough up (Cubs sending the farm system to the Yankees for Chapman comes to mind.) Obviously, we can't sit around until October and let Manny walk away for only a crummy draft pick, but we don't have to have a fire sale right now.
As always Big Daddy, excellent summary. Drink chip.
"......there are so many cooks in the Oriole's kitchen that the meal is often altered by the time it gets to owner Peter Angelos." Just that statement alone makes me wonder if this gets handled properly, handled at all or if the Os FA just stays frozen in a fearful state of suspended animation. Too many cooks spoil the broth. But that's a discussion for another day.
To your question though, IMO yes I think the Os should trade Manny to the team with the best package in return. If that's a division rival so be it. The state of the pitching staff, specifically the starting rotation, dictates as much.
Agreed
How do you trade within the division and still manage to win it? How do you win anything without Machado? If the Orioles trade Machado, then there's a high likelihood that one of Brach or Britton get traded... and if you trade one of those, why not both of them? I think the Orioles are looking at what New York has done this offseason and are gearing towards throwing in the towel for the 2018 season. I don't blame them for that, but I do blame them for the lack of honesty towards the fans, and perhaps even towards themselves. I just don't buy that we're going to be competitive in the AL East in 2018 at this point if we trade Machado (and all indications are that will happen). So if the O's are not going to be competitive in 2018, then by conclusion you trade Machado to whoever gives you the best return. And then you do the same with both Britton and Brach. Trade them, fine, but not for pieces for 2018, because that's a sinking ship and it hasn't even left port. To answer the question, if we're going to trade Manny, then go ahead and trade him to Boston or New York. I don't mind getting their best players that we're going to use to beat them a little further down the road. I just wish the O's were being honest about how they see 2018.
I think they want some Mlb ready players but not just to try and compete now but because they need to fill holes now and for the future (especially in the rotation). I don’t think they want to give up on 2018. But I believe the focus is restocking the shelves with the best quality
What's your honest assessment Dan - If the O's trade Britton and Machado before this season begins, is there any realistic chance of a Wild Card?
On paper 19, I’d say no. I don’t think they are close to a WC team with both. So the chances have to go down considerably if they are both gone. That said, their offense and bullpen are steady enough to handle the losses assuming the rotation improves greatly. I doubt it will. But that’s the wild card for a Wild Card.
Yes. If the Orioles can get a package that can set them up for success in the near future, they have to make this trade. It’s not often that they would be able to fill in a couple spots by trading away a player, though it will sting them quite a bit by trading a once-in-a-generation talent in Machado. In addition, this will lead them to the next step, making well-thought out moves with Zach Britton and Brad Brach. Can it lead them to more of a reload than a re-build? It’s possible.
That is their hope anyway.
Manny can of course sign anywhere he wants after 2018. So why should the O's care where he goes? I'd rather make the Yankees pay with a couple of top prospects now if they're willing to do so. To me, the worst scenario with Manny is that the O's hold out for too much or are too restrictive with whom they'll trade. You don't want to let this guy walk without getting something for him.
And what I'd really hate to see is for him to still be in an O's uniform on opening day. Not because I don't want him here (I wish he could stay for his entire career) but at this point the cat's out of the bag. It's going to be a pretty uncomfortable situation for him to suit up every day knowing the team is trying to trade him.
Sell him off to the highest bidder - whoever that may be.
That’s kind of my thinking on why I believe something will get done.
From what I'm reading (between the lines), I suspect they have not received great offers. That leads me to believe that only the Yankees will offer a great package. The O's must insist on Torres. I know, he's not a pitcher, but DD should insist on Torres and hopefully the deal would include a decent pitching prospect too. The O's really don't have much leverage. If they wait until the trade deadline, they will be desperate to get anything better than a compensation pick. Other teams will know that too. They must talk to NY now. Having said all this, I suspect Angelos will nix this whole thing anyway.
I think your reading too much between the lines. These kind of things take time.
Absolutely
I have a different perspective, although perhaps not addressing your question directly. Typically a team trades a big star because it can't afford to fill a competitive team around him. The Marlins had a once in a generation player but were a bad baseball team. The Orioles have the best 3B or SS in baseball (arguably a top 5 player in all of MLB), a top 3 2B in baseball and rising star, the best closer in baseball, a 2017 ROY candidate, one of the highest scoring teams in baseball and one rising starting pitcher (Bundy). That is what I would call a strong core. This is the sort of core teams look to build after a "rebuilding period". When a team finally feels they've gotten over the rebuilding hump, they are going to have some players who now have high market value. What happens next, trade him or resign him? It's a counter-intuitive process; to get where you've been trying to get and then say "Uh oh, now we have to pay for what we wanted." With the core the Orioles have, they could be a contender with the addition of 2 solid starting pitchers. Yes, it costs money...spend it! There are still salary relieving moves this team could make, such as trading Hardy, unloading Davis' contract (even if it's for a loss), trading Brach perhaps, etc. The thing than annoys me about this organization more than anything is that I hear Duquette say, "The Free Agent market for starting pitchers is not that strong." Okay then, find another way to attain starting pitchers. They could have traded Hardy 2 years ago, when he had value.
Finally, this organization is tone deaf to it's fan base and sure would benefit from spending time on chat boards like this but they never will, so all of us are spending a lot of calories over something we have no control over. Man do I miss the old days when I didn't have to worry about my Cal Ripken jersey being a collector's item. :(
Rhodes: appreciate your comments. I just don’t think it is that simple. For one, Hardy is already a free agent. And he was worth more to the Orioles than other teams in the past few years anyway. Buying the pitching is an obvious way to attack. But the guys that are available aren’t usually good investments long term. I don’t think the organization is tone deaf. I just think it shoots itself in the foot (both feet) sometimes.
I hear ya Dan. Hard to put in words what's been swirling around in my head for a few years. Yes, I realize the Hardy window is closed. I guess my point is this...when you have an offense like this and a strong defense, Cy Young candidates aren't needed to be in contention. Someone like Yu Darvish or Lance Lynn could really help. We could trade Manny and spend the next 5 years trying to build a core that doesn't match what they currently have. What will we have gained at that point?
Yes, trade him to NY. He can go there after 2018. We already went thru painful years of facing Mussina there. Trade Britton and Bach too. I don't know about Jones. How much could he really bring back, especially at mid season deadline when relievers are the priority?
Jones is tricky. He can veto any trade. And he is a guy that has immense value beyond what he does on the field.
I’d absolutely trade him within the division. Wouldn’t hesitate if if’s the best package. I seriously doubt the team will, though.
I’m going a bit off topic here, but after thinking about this situation a lot over the past few days, color me very skeptical about the whole thing. Skeptical that the offers/interest are as “strong” as some reports and Duquette have made us think. Skeptical that Angelos has done anything more than finally grant a halfhearted approval to “explore” a trade and would actually go through with approving one. Skeptical that this is anything more than the next iteration of Scott Rolen or Burnett/Lowell or countless others in the past — where a whole lot of talk led to absolutely nothing.
As talented as Manny is, he OPSed just .782 last year and is only controlled for one year at a time when teams value both team control and their prospects more than ever before (just look at the Cardinals perhaps choosing two years of Ozuna over Manny). The Yankees far and away make the most sense to me, but they’re likely a non-starter given — wait for it — the Orioles’ “organizational philosophy.”
I sincerely hope that the O's can grab a couple top-100 pitching prospects for Manny rather than risk losing him for a draft pick. But after a lot of thought, I’d be pretty darned shocked if it actually happens.
I’d be shocked on the other side, partner. Really tough to shop a superstar and not deal him. Your examples are the opposite end of a trade. But I get your reasoning.
Dan another question if you don't mind-- if Manny isn't traded and plays here in 2018 what kind of Manny do you think we'll get? A mopey/loafing Manny,an angry Manny,or a carefree free swinging Manny. Just wonder that after all this trade talk it might be detrimental to have him around.
Interesting question, but what would that say to potential suitors in a contract year? He had a sub-par year at the plate last year and has, among followers, a bit of a reputation for lackadaisical play at times. I don't think that he can produce like that and show attitude through the year. There's too much money at stake for him to bugger it up like that. Last thing he'd need is a reputation as a locker room cancer.
I think that’s a concern O, with anyone in that situation. That’s why I think it ultimately gets done. I will say though that Manny has 300 million reasons to stay engaged in 2018
It would have to appreciably better than anybody else is offering.
As others have said, the Davis deal is irrelevant to the Machado situation. Much like Wieters before him, Manny had no interest in being an Oriole. He was only in Birdland because the system required it. The Orioles could have made the best offer by far and he wouldn't have taken it. That's the deal with high draft picks who have been anointed since their mid-teens and who then back it up. They only want the glamorous franchises.
I’m not sure that’s true. I think it is more about top dollar than glamour franchises. Tho they often end up as the same thing.
Absolutely. Taking their best players also weakens their future. We won't win now anyway.
That’s a popular sentiment.
The package has to be a Herschel Walker level fleecing for me to send him to New York. Boston I'll take a little less, but if you want me to help build what is essentially the MLB version of the Golden State Warriors, I need it to be the heist of the century. Because if Machado goes to New York, you are starting an arms race of the big money teams. If New York loads up, Boston LA and Chicago will certainly follow, and then our little market team with the half empty stadium cannot keep up.
That’s a solid point. If Yanks get Machado there has to be another counter in Boston and maybe other places, right?
Of course. And as the Yankees go, MLB follows. We are drifting perilously toward the NBA "superteam" model. Did anyone even care what happened outside of the NBA finals last year? Or this year for that matter? Think any fan of the Hornets or Kings is remotely interested in basketball right now? That would be bad for the league and disastrous for the Orioles
Correction, that would be bad for 90% of the TEAMS in the league. THhe NBA is making money hand over fist. Its just those Hornets, Kings, Jazz etc fans who get the shaft
No doubt that the ability of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. to spend more gives them a real advantage, but it doesn’t guarantee success … the Yankees have made it to the World Series just once in the last 10 seasons, and during that same 10 year period, the following “small market” teams have also reached to the World Series: Colorado, Tampa, Kansas City, and Cleveland.
To give the devil his due, I think the Yankees are willing to give value for value. I know many disagree, but I think that first big deal of 17 players was good for the Orioles. Turley and Larsen did well for the Yankees, much better than they would have done for the O's. The batch of players the O's got became a foundation, directly and through later trades, for the O's of the 60's, who were far better than the O's of the 50's. And others have mentioned the Dempsey deal. I know that then was then and now is now, but I still think the Yanks are willing to part with talent and give value for what they want. That's one reason why they're good, unlike teams that outwit themselves by trying to get steals rather than make a reasonable exchange.
I agree with the concept that the Yankees aren’t afraid to pay steep prices in prospects if they want someone.
Trade him to whoever offers the best package in return. It sounds like some teams are only interested so that they can flip him to the Yankees anyway, so what's the point of shutting NY out of the process? Maybe consider raising the price for the AL East teams compared to the other ones since it's within the same division. I wonder if the front office and ownership realize that their organizational philosophies only put them at a competitive disadvantage? They need to start doing things the way other teams do things if they want to be a perennial playoff team rather than a perennial doormat again.
There are reasons for everything I suppose.
Why not?
I have yet to see a convincing argument against trading Manny to the Yankees or Red Sox, if they offer the best package. I know many Orioles fans have a visceral hostility to the Yankees (and the Red Sox to a lesser extent), but there's a pretty good chance Manny will end up in NY or Boston anyway as a FA after 2018. The Orioles are in a deep talent hole - they are very likely a below .500 team in 2018, with or without Manny. So lets get the best return possible for him, regardless of the source.
Drink chip for succinctness. Not just cuz we agree.
yes
Yes
Sale for Manny - definite maybe. Mostly I say NO within tbe division. Do not want to face him 19 times
But you might anyway for a decade starting in 2019. To me, it’s about the quality of package. If it’s even avoid the AL East. If it’s not, go with Best package. Period.
Yes to Machado, yes to Britton, yes to Brach, yes to O'Day, yes to Jones, yes to Trumbo, yes to Chris Davis. No to Givens, no to Schoop, no to Judge Moore as I don't hate the Yankees that much and we have our own fools in Missouri.
Haha. Love your specific list.
I would take the trade in a nanosecond. I believe Manny will soon soon become a clubhouse problem. He has already started not running out ground balls. He is now telling the club what position he will play. Great skills more attitude. Time will tell.
Well, I wouldn't trade him at all. If we're truly going all in for '18 like our leadership's been hinting, our chances are a whale of a lot better with MM than without him. After that, let the chips fall. Maybe there's a "wow" offer we've yet to make that'll coax him back at the 11th hour.
But to answer the question as it's been asked, I'd be extremely loath to deal him intra-division. I'm not a fan of making direct competitors better - and in this case, exponentially better given the generational talent we'd be surrendering. It would have to be a grand larceny-level haul we'd be getting back, and given that they'd only get one year of him (as it stands), that's just not going to happen.
I suspect that this is how Mr. A sees things as well, which is why I feel confident in predicting that MM doesn't get dealt, to the NYY or anywhere else.
What is “all in on 2018”? Ya mean they’ll get 3 quality starters without trading Manny and the bullpen? LOL. DD will bring in Nubaldo.
If they trade him to a team and he becomes a free agent and then signs with the Yankees what the difference. Make trade for the best players that can help you.
Yes. Unfortunately, loyalty to a team is old school because of free agency and the siren call of more money, more money. Trade him and hope that the return pans out. It would be great if MM would stay and sign for less then market, but that is not going to happen. Once he goes, it will be interesting to see if his 2017 production was an anomaly or the beginning of a gradual slide downward. As with anything, time will tell.