Analyzing the remaining position battles; projecting Orioles’ Opening Day roster

Spring training 2018 is half over. The Orioles had their lone off day on Monday and now play every day until they head north.

The first part of this camp has been dominated by new arrivals: Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Colby Rasmus, Pedro Alvarez, Danny Valencia.

I’d imagine there will be more to come in the next couple weeks as Orioles Executive Vice President Dan Duquette looks to cash in on any bargains still remaining on the free agent market.

I don’t expect any of the Big Three of available pitchers, Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn, to walk through the Ed Smith Stadium door. Their demands likely would have to drop into the three-year realm – or lower — for the Orioles to make a hard push.

Then again, I didn’t expect Nelson Cruz’s market to crash in 2014 to the level the Orioles could land him on a one-year deal.

So, anything is possible, I suppose. And this has been the craziest market to handicap in my career.

I still think the Orioles need to be more aggressive in their pursuit of outfielder Jon Jay on a reasonable deal. And their rotation would look a whole lot better with Lynn or Cobb or Arrieta leading it. There are also some utility infielder types that could be available at the end of the month that would upgrade what the club has presently.

But, for now, the Orioles have 55 players in camp – and that’s plenty to draw from in an attempt to construct a 25-man roster. Here’s a look at the remaining position battles halfway through camp, my sense on what will happen and my projected 25-man roster if the season started today:

Fifth starter

As I wrote Monday, this appears to be a three-pitcher race among Mike Wright Jr., Nestor Cortes Jr., and Miguel Castro. Gabriel Ynoa was always the trailer, and he took a step backward Sunday. Hunter Harvey may be the best of the group, but since he hasn’t pitched much as a pro, the club will be patient – relatively speaking – with their top pitching prospect as he continues to surge back from elbow surgery. Cortes, a Rule 5 pick who must stay with the Orioles all year or be offered back to the New York Yankees, is the only lefty among the fifth-starter candidates (and the four who already have a spot). Castro has the best combination of upside and big league success, but he also has a minor league option remaining and probably could benefit from starting some at Triple-A. That leaves Wright, who has had success starting in the minors but can’t maintain any consistency when he gets to the Orioles’ rotation. He didn’t make a start with the club last year, but likely will be afforded that opportunity in 2018. He is out of minor league options, so it’s sink or swim time for the big fella.

My projected winner: Wright

Front end of the bullpen

Even with closer Zach Britton on the shelf for the first two months of the season, the Orioles have four sports claimed in the bullpen, barring injury: Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day and lefty Richard Bleier. That leaves three openings in a conventional, seven-man pen. At least one of the losers in the starting rotation battle will end up in the bullpen, and maybe two if the Orioles feel they are better with Castro revisiting his long-man role from 2017. If Castro ends up in the minors to get more exposure as a starter, however, then the fifth-starter runner-up (Cortes, in my opinion) will be joined by two more pitchers to fill out the bullpen. I’m getting the growing sense that one will be Rule 5 right-hander Pedro Araujo, who has electric stuff and has overshadowed the club’s third Rule 5 pick from this winter, Jose Mesa Jr. My sense is the Orioles send Mesa back to the Yankees, and keep Cortes and Araujo, who was selected from the Chicago Cubs. That would leave a knock-down, drag-out for one final relief spot among a cast of hundreds including Castro, Ynoa, Jimmy Yacabonis, Donnie Hart, Josh Edgin, Asher Wojciechowski and Joely Rodriguez. A left-hander wins the tiebreaker and Rodriguez is a power arm that has pitched in the majors each of the past two seasons with the Phillies, so he may be the favorite here. Edgin also has experience and has made a good impression so far. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles added a free-agent to this mix or to the rotation, which, in that case, would then push Wright to the bullpen.

My projected winners: Cortes, Araujo and Castro or Rodriguez

Fourth/fifth outfielder

With Trey Mancini as the starting left fielder, Adam Jones as the starting center fielder and Anthony Santander needing 44 more days to complete his Rule 5 obligations from last year, I feel like there are two more spots here to be filled. One will certainly go to left-handed hitting Colby Rasmus, who was signed to a minor league deal but will almost certainly be in a right field platoon if he stays healthy throughout the spring. That leaves one more opening with several candidates battling, including Craig Gentry, Joey Rickard, Austin Hays and Alex Presley. Hays, the organization’s top position prospect, hasn’t been able to play the outfield in a Grapefruit League game because of a right shoulder/lat issue. He is probably ticketed for Triple-A to begin the year. If Gentry proves to be healthy – he’s been sidelined recently with a hamstring issue but should return to action today – he may have a slight edge over Rickard because he is a more proficient pinch-runner/basestealer. Rickard has the edge over Presley. This dynamic will change completely, however, if the Orioles sign Jay or Carlos Gonzalez or another available outfielder.

My projected winner: Gentry

Utility infielder

This is the most bizarre competition in camp. No one has stepped up and now I’m thinking there may not be a traditional utility infielder on the 25-man roster. Engelb Vielma looked like he could be the leading candidate but his camp was delayed by visa issues. Luis Sardinas and Ruben Tejada have been OK, and Erick Salcedo was recently reassigned to minors’ camp. When the Orioles signed Danny Valencia this weekend – and the veteran immediately said he was solely focused on a major league job and would not go to the minors – the focus of this spot shifted. If Valencia, who can play first, third and the corner outfield positions, makes the club, the Orioles wouldn’t necessarily need a utility type to play shortstop and second base. Instead, Valencia could get some time at third base against left-handed pitching and starting third baseman Tim Beckham could play the occasional game at second or short to spell starters Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop. I also could see the Orioles filling this spot in late March when a utility infielder – Ryan Flaherty, Ryan Goins, et cetera – gets cut loose in a roster crunch elsewhere.

My projected winner: Valencia or someone not yet in camp

Reserve Catcher

There’s no real clarity yet to this one. Someone will be backing up Caleb Joseph among Chance Sisco, Andrew Susac and Austin Wynns. Sisco is the club’s catcher of the future, but there’s strong sentiment in the organization that he should begin the season at Triple-A so the 23-year-old can continue to play every day and work on his defensive game. That would make Susac the favorite to back up Joseph, but he’s been limited in the spring due to a staph infection that recently cleared. Wynns is a defensive whiz who hasn’t played above Double-A.

My projected winner: Susac

Projected 25-man roster

This, obviously, is subject to change due to injuries and future signings. But this is my most educated guess at this moment. It would include three Rule 5 picks (including Santander) and seven players who weren’t with the 2017 Orioles.

Rotation (5):  Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Mike Wright.

Bullpen (7):  Brad Brach, Mychal Givens, Darren O’Day, Richard Bleier, Nestor Cortes, Pedro Araujo, Joely Rodriguez.

Catchers (2): Caleb Joseph, Andrew Susac.

Infielders (5): Chris Davis, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado, Tim Beckham, Danny Valencia.

Outfielders (6): Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Colby Rasmus, Mark Trumbo, Anthony Santander, Craig Gentry.