The lights are at full blast in the Tap Room today and I spent all last night cleaning off the mirror behind the bar.
It’s time for you, faithful Connolly’s patrons, to take a deep, clear look inward and outward here.
OK, maybe that’s a little dramatic, but I want to know what you were thinking on March 29, Opening Day, and what you are thinking now. And how it connects.
Not about everything, of course. Just about the Orioles.
I want you to narrow it down a little more. I want to know what aspect of this team – a player, a unit, whatever – has been opposite from what you imagined when the umpires first said ‘Play Ball,” in late March.
I’ll give you my two most unexpected developments.
One, I’m pretty surprised by how shaky the defense has been so far. I guess I assumed there would be some growing pains on the left side of the infield and I couldn’t anticipate that second baseman Jonathan Schoop and right fielder Colby Rasmus would already be on the shelf by mid-April. But the defense, collectively, has been sub-par, certainly below what the Orioles enjoyed during the recent resurgence under manager Buck Showalter.
He wasn’t happy with the 2017 defense and put an emphasis on that in the spring. Yet, with all the musical chairs, it seems to have taken a further step backward. I won’t belabor this point though. You can read more of my thoughts about the O’s defense in Monday’s post.
Secondly, and this is the one that really struck me, is the early performance of Andrew Cashner, who will make his fourth start for the Orioles this evening in Detroit.
Initially, I was surprised that the pitcher the Orioles wanted because he historically kept the ball in the ballpark would give up three home runs on a cold night at Camden Yards in his team debut. That, I figured, did not bode well, for the sticky, humid summers when the ball darts out of the stadium.
But then Cashner pitched in New York and again in Baltimore. And I was struck by how much he pitched. How he didn’t just use his bread-and-butter sinker, but how he mixed in his slider, curve and changeup and how he moved the ball from side to side and up and down.
His reliance on his fastball has dropped from a peak of 71 percent in 2014 to 59 percent so far this year, according to fangraphs.com. Just since last year, the use of his slider/cutter has jumped from 12 to 18 percent and his curveball from 8.4 percent to 14.5 percent.
“Last year, it kind of started for me going to the American League, definitely a different beast,” said Cashner, who spent his entire career in the National League before 2017. “I think I’ve gotten more confident in throwing off-speed (pitches) in fastball counts and, when push comes to shove, it’s just making a (good) pitch.”
In his last two games against stout offenses, Cashner took charge.
And he missed plenty of bats, which was the major concern about Cashner heading into 2018. Last year, while with the Texas Rangers, the big right-hander struck out just 86 batters in 166 2/3 innings or a concerning 4.6 strikeouts per nine innings. In his three starts so far, Cashner has fanned 16 in 18 innings – that’s 8.0 per nine, which is better than his career average of 7.0.
He’s been pitching, not throwing, and that’s been intriguing to watch so far. And it’s something we haven’t seen much from Orioles starters in recent years.
“As you evolve as a pitcher and as a player you learn things that you’re good at. You try to work your way through a game,” said Cashner, whose fastball averaged a peak of 97.7 mph in 2012 and, so far, has averaged 92.1 in 2018. “There’s always going to be that point in a game where the game can go one of two ways. And I think that having the ability to slow the game down and make a pitch in those spots is kind of what I feel I have been best at.”
So, yeah, Cashner’s style of pitching has been the biggest (pleasant) surprise for me. By the way, if you want to hear more of my interview with the 31-year-old Cashner, it is featured as part of my weekly radio show on WOYK in York, Pa. You can access the show by hitting the play button below the Tap-In Question, by downloading the show as a podcast from iTunes (BaltimoreBaseball.com is all one word in the app store and on iTunes) or by going to the station’s archive.
That’s a voluntary action at the Tap Room today.
What’s mandatory is telling me what has surprised you the most so far this Orioles’ season. Can be good, can be bad. Your call. I just want the observation that follows this line, “Here’s what I didn’t see coming so far…”
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I am totally surprised by how poorly the team is hitting. A team with this many proven hitters has been terrible. Chris Davis is lost, and they are not even hitting home runs. I really don't understand the signing of Coby Rasmus when there were so many better options for what we needed out there at the time. The starting pitching I think has a chance of being pretty good but too many games are being wasted with horrific hitting.
I think we all expected the feast-or-famine, given the construction. But not this much famine.
About the only thing that surprises me is that god-awful hair cut Machado is going with. Is that a hair net? I know, I know, bald guys have no room to criticize hair styles, but frankly, he looks like a dishwasher at some greasy spoon joint.
I don't hate it that much, since it seems to be helping his bat. Ugly? Yes. Beneficial? I'd like to think so.
Hahaha. You two. It’s a .... look
That's as apt a description as I can think of. The only player in baseball who could possibly make Manny's 'do not look awful, in my humble opinion, is Josh Donaldson. That guy looks like a 17-year-old whose beard won't fill out that the barber gave a mohawk with garden sheers.
The hitting and lack of run scoring has been very disappointing. As a result we have wasted several good pitching performances that normally would have been wins. I thought the Orioles should have picked up Corey Dickerson instead of Rasmus. Right field has been a problem since Nick left.
Kevin Gausman is still inconsistent and is
another area of concern. He needs to use his pitches to setup hitters instead of lighting up the radar gun. Beckham should stay at 3rd instead of moving him around. Araujo has been the best of the rule 5 pickups and appears to be a solid addition.
Dickerson was traded. Meaning the Rays could choose where he went and they got him out of the league. And also got 2 minor leaguers and $1M out of it. I would have preferred Dickerson to Rasmus too, but Rasmus only cost money.
Rasmus was a horrible signing, for multiple reasons.
-3+ million, when many other better fit outfielders were available.
-Not the proper fit for this offense. He is another swing n' miss guy. The O's needed balance, someone like Jon Joy. Jay was the proper fit, with a lower price tag.
-Clubhouse. Rasmus is known to have issues in the clubhouse, according to players who have played with him. Including issues in Toronto.
The dead hourse: EVERYTIME Duquette had a chance to implement some balance in this lineup, he acquires guys who have power and swing n'miss. In this regard, he is incompetent or just plain blind.
I’m with you except I think Rasmus has been considered odd, kind of his own guy. But I did a whole lot of checking and couldn’t find anyone who thought Rasmus was a clubhouse issue. He’s actually a pretty pleasant guy. All that said, not a good offensive fit from the beginning.
I didn't have great expectations for the pitching and D, but I definitely thought the offense would be better. I get that we have played the mostly top teams in bad baseball weather, but still the offense has been bad overall. The O's are getting behind early and can't catch up with this poor offense
Yeah, that early hole is still killing them. Especially when they can’t hit.
Who could have predicted defensive problems after JJ left and Manny was moved to short? Shocking. The postponement was the best result in Beantown.
I’m sensing some sarcasm.
The good and bad somewhat standout right now. The Good:the starters have improved(putting aside Cashner/Cobb's shaky starts). The bad: oh that offense. Its a continuation of last Sept. Smaller good: stealing more,Sisco's defense,Araujo,Bleier,Bundy,Manny's bat. The bad:Davis we knew BUT Beckham,Schoop--ouch. The Good: this ridiculously bad schedule is over(for now). The Bad: the ridiculous schedule they had. The Good: Manny looking energized at bat. The Bad:Manny looking slow at SS and throwing the infield in a flux
I’m giving you a drink chip for your format creativity this morning, O.
I was going to go with Cashner, but since Dan beat me to it I have another. Small sample size noted, but the O's got more wins in NY than they have at home, and now have more wins in NY than all of last season. Hopefully it carries forward.
More wins this year there than they did all of last year is something else.
Their dismal hitting. It seems like everyone couldn't hit all at once. Sisco is pretty steady and Mancini has taken off since has been put in the lead off spot. Bundy has done a great job but has nothing to show for it because there has been no offense.
I think Mancini in the leadoff spot is a good one. That I didn’t see coming, especially after Buck shot it down in spring
I think he had to do something. After all, the Davis experiment wasn't working out so well. Can't have a guy at the top with an OBP of .230-ish who either strikes out or grounds weakly to the right side.
I've been impressed with the play of the younger players. Sisco has had a couple of defensive hiccups, but you have to love the bat. Santander has done a good job and should be splitting time with Hays and not Rasmus, who looks physically smaller than I remember and non-competitive. It's the core veterans who have not been getting it done. Manny at short is a vanity project and a mistake that has destabilized the left half of the infield. He has made a couple of great plays, but they can't turn a double play. Major concerns about Schoop's change in demeanor. He seems to have gone from a player who enjoys the game to an attitude issue who is a year away from following Manny out the door. Beckham is saying all the right things, but he is not a third baseman. Valencia is a bat off the bench who has not done much thus far and is a defensive liability, and Davis is completely imploding. I'm not seeing much of a difference between Tillman and Wright. Tillman may never get it back, but for some reason, I trust him more than Wright. Wright has the talent, but can't keep his emotions in check to become productive. He's a lesser Arrieta in waiting. Bundy has been a rock. Cashner has shown signs of being solid following the opener, and Gausman is Gausman. Hopefully, Cobb will look better with a couple more starts and some warmer weather. Gentry and Alvarez have both made solid contributions off the bench. I would love to see the front office try to extend Schoop if possible and to do right by Jones with a two or three year extension. The O's really screwed up with Markakis and shouldn't repeat the error with Jones. His value on and off the field are too important, especially on the verge of Machado's exodus.
So much to digest here. But good thoughts. Hard to argue. Drink chip.
The Good Surprises: Bundy looking like a CY Young candidate. He has the ability, no doubt, but right now, he looks plain filthy.
The Bad Surprises: Joseph's defense, Manny's play at SS, Davis making ZERO changes to his approach, Sisco's strikeouts.
The bash or trash offense, being plain horrible, is not a surprise and shouldn't be to any of you. This type of offense will disappear, then reappear and go nuts. Its not built to win consistently.
It’s not built to score consistently. They have won consistently with it. The problem is this type of offense doesn’t work in the playoffs even if they win consistently in the regular season.
Good surprises so far, Cashner, Bleier, and Araujo.
Bad surprise, extraordinary number of strikeouts so far. Yes, we knew this would be a streaky, home run dependent offense, with an above average strikeout total, but who expected them to be on pace to crush (no pun intended) the all-time MLB record?
Going to be worse when Trumbo comes back.......imagine that.
Trumbo, Beckham, Alvarez, and Davis are all potential 200 strikeouts per year type guys if they play everyday. But a team striking out at a 28% rate is really awful. And I knew some folks were keen for us to go out and get Mark Reynolds as a corner infielder. I can't imagine the whiff rate we'd have if we'd added him.
28 percent is mind-numbing. And worthy of a drink chip.
Just heard the stat that the O's have more strikeouts after 17 games than any MLB team since 1913!
Outside of the raging dumpster fire that is the Oriole offense? The bizarre bullpen decisions and failures therein. There was the mystifying concept of pitching Wright and Tillman, both of whom had sky high probability of going less than 3 innings, back to back. Seriously, you knew these guys were probably going to get shelled and you slotted them one after another, and against Houston and New York no less. This produced other inexplicable decisions. Got a guy who has never pitched above A-ball? Bring him in with the bases loaded in a one run game against the defending World Champions, then have him do the same against Josh Donaldson. Rehabbing a prospect who needs to get his innings on the farm? Have him come sit in a freezing cold bullpen and stare blankly at the field. I don't usually join in the Duquette bashing, though I am much less a cheerleader of Showalter than some, but this group has looked mis-managed from the start.
One quick clarification. Cortes made it up to AAA in 2017. It’s Araujo who never pitched above Single-A. But that picks nits on your overall point.
I expected pitching to be better and overall it is. OK .. I did and do expect Tillman to be gone y end of May. I expected a better start from Machado than last year .. ok it is somewhat. I had zero hope in Davis or Trumbo ... thus far no dissapppointments from them.
Now, Schoop, he is better than his start and beleive he will pull up when he is back.
Yeah. Seems like Schoop was just getting going before the injury.
That they're actually worse than expected, by a lot. And they weren't expected to be good. Personally, I expected Tillman to see some bounce back, but needless to say, that's not happened. DFA him, like yesterday. Davis has been beyond atrocious, and I only expected him to be atrocious, so that's bad, too. I feel for Buck. He's seriously hamstrung. Only a masochist would return to this burning pile of poo that the front office has given him. Shame on them.
The Machado debacle has fairly well permanently left a sour taste in my mouth and one that will forever scar this once passionate fan's support for the team. Unfortunately for once the Oriole-hating/ big-city loving pundits will be proved right on their dire predictions, and it kills me beyond measure to acknowledge that, especially this early, but there are too many negative factors which cannot be ignored.
The only thing(s) this fan base can hope for is a reasonable return with an inevitable fire sale, and that Machado doesn't end up with the evil empire. If I were a betting man, I would be the first won't happen, and the second will.
Yeah. It’s gonna be interesting to see if there really is a fire sale. If they continue at this pace, even dumping-opposed ownership will have no choice.
Good surprises: Alvarez and Cisco at the plate - they may deserve some more ABs.
Bad surprises: Only two reliable starters so far (Bundy and Cashner) and the O's being ranked in the bottom three in both OBP and WHIP.
I’m with you up until the OBP surprise. Nothing surprising about that futility.
Bottom three though? And then I looked at team Defense Efficiency Ratio and the O's are in the bottom three in that stat too? Can't the O's just stink at one of these key stats at once?
I think what really surprises me at this point is how much the O's miss Ryan Flaherty. I know a lot of people were in "move on" mode with him because he's not a big bat and not a flashy fielder. But the guy could play anywhere on the field and be around replacement level. Not that that's great, but the fact that he can do it anywhere was significant to the team. Now, a single injury creates a horrid ripple effect that creates a defensive mess. Valencia should not own a baseball glove, much less wear one. On the field. At third base. In a major league game. And the fact that Pedro Alvarez, he who plays corner infield with a cast iron skillet for a glove, was fielding grounders in warm-ups in Boston screams quite loudly how desperately we need someone who can play anywhere and not upset the defensive balance we're trying to create. Beckham looked to be finding his groove at 3B (although I still contend that Manny is a natural third baseman, not a natural shortstop, no matter what anyone else says) and then he got moved to 2B, for Valencia, which threw that groove way off.
Certainly, you couldn't predict Schoop's injury, or Rasmus' for that matter (although a bad hip tends to give lifelong problems, so maybe...) Flaherty could have filled in at any of those positions and helped a team using a short bench in favor of carrying an extra reliever. Rumor was he waited as long as he could for the O's to offer him something before he signed with Philly, and even after he was released, the O's made no move to acquire him, even knowing our utility guy was a mess.
Look, I know Flaherty isn't going to bat .350 for Atlanta this year. But the guy provided some versatility that this team desperately needs. We currently carry Valencia and Alvarez, neither of whom has any business being anything but half a DH platoon, and Trumbo is on his way back. That means, between those three and Davis, there's a logjam of DH/1B type, high K, low BA, low OBP guys. This roster is not flexible in any way. I'm very surprised that there was not a better effort to resolve this, and for $750,000, Flaherty would have fit the bill.
Real solid post, BD. Rationalize it well. Drink chip.
I’m agreeing with ‘Birdman’. Araujo and Bleier have looked good. I didn’t see anything in Bleier last year, and am impressed so far this year. Araujo has really good movement on his pitches. I hope he makes it through the year. He could be a steal.
We really miss JJ and Machado at third... what a difference in the infield dynamic.
Intriguing that Bleier didn’t do much for you last year. I thought he was a big bright spot then (and now).
Biggest Surprise Thus Far: That the O’s are as bad as the experts said they would be. We used to have a reputation for defying the experts but I think that’s over. When a Showalter team folded last September, that was not a good omen and that same karma seems to be with the team again. A second surprise for me is that the Front Office was willing to go into 2018 with both Buck and Duquette being lame ducks. — especially Buck. With his future unknown, how will Buck motivate players — when things really go bad — when they know he may not be calling the shots next year?
I think everyone who is around the team expects Buck to be back.
Alvarez for me. Extremely small sample size but he is our best hitter right now. He works counts, draws walks and can hit the long ball. I’m not looking forward to trumbo’s return because it’ll mean displacing the Bull. Don’t see a way Trumbo out hits him. I suppose Trumbo can play some RF again (ouch).
TB’s struggles aren’t surprising at all. Neither is Davis or rasmus or Caleb. They’ll all get better but I don’t believe it’ll be good enough.
If you would’ve suggested Richard Bleier in the rotation last year I would’ve immediately shot it down. The guy can pitch though that’s beeen obvious this season. No guarantees it’d go well and that’d take our best lefty out of the pen but at this point I’d at least entertain the idea.
I’m a believer in leaving guys where they are having success. And Bleier has excelled in his role.
Surprise both good and bad. Dylan Bundy's starts. Good: I didn't expect him to be lights out dominating. Bad: with merely adequate hitting and fielding behind him, he would be 3-0 instead of being 0-1. No surprise: they crash without Flash.
I’m afraid “deserves better fate” will be associated all year with Bundy.
Off topic, I know! But there is something to look forward to this evening - four pretty darn good starting pitchers (no jinxes intended):
Cashner (Orioles), Hess (Tides), Wells (Keys), and Lowther (Shorebirds)
Hopefully the present and future Orioles will mow 'em all down this evening.
That is a solid group.
Lowther - 5 IP, 84 pitches, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K (very nice, plus he and Alex Wells look like brothers)
Sardinas 2b RF 3.95, FPCT 0.968, OBP 0.330 minor league stats
Corban Joseph 2b RF 4.55, FPCT 0.969, OBP 0.355 minor league stats; he is hitting 0.457 and has 1 strikeout in 35 ABs...
So yeah let's call up Sardinas cuz yeah
With all due respect Joseph is 29. Sardinas 24.
I enjoy reading the comments ...however, I do not think most deal with the real problem in the O's organization....if you love and follow baseball ...one knows that
Winning organizations concerate on ...Pitching & Defense... The management of this
Organization has not accepted this style. They have spent big $$'s on players they expected to win thru ...hitting..e.g. Davis& Trumbo. In addition, this organization has
Not focused on the talent of their scouts, and minor league management.
In addition, they have permitted and encouraged Duquette to go after players who
Really were not "winners" e.g. Pitchers...
If we look at the great O's they were excellent on pitching and defense...they won!
I hope the sons of Peter who are taking over the management rebuild the Organization by getting rid of Duquette & Showalter...get young baseball knowledgable personnel who know the principles of winning by pitching and defense.
Jaker CHC 1946
Jaker: As a fellow Hallman — you were there a bit before me — thanks for commenting. Pitching and D are the keys. And the Orioles had good D for much of this past decade. But P is hard to develop. In any organization. Os have drafted it high and signed it for good money. And it doesn’t always work out. But still, yes, they need to do better with that.
The good: the youth! Mancini, Sisco, Araujo, Bundy, even Santander, all have looked good at the start.
Yeah. Certainly haven’t hurt them.
I'm surprised that so many folks (especially the media) continue to be in denial about the state of the team. As of last night's loss to Detroit, the Orioles are 9-31 over their last 40 games dating back to last season. That's a .290 winning percentage. As with any serious problem, acknowledging that it exists is the first step to solving it. Continuing to say silly things like "their bats will heat up when the weather does" just adds to the woes.
I’m not sure what there is to say. They have a flawed roster that has not put an emphasis on offensive diversity. So when they are hot they score in bunches and when they are cold they look awful. No middle ground because they don’t make many productive outs or get on base much.
For myself, I never was sanguine or bought into the attitude that the Orioles were going to contend for anything in 2018, besides attempting to equal their 2017 record. Particularly when last September went so dismally. So 2018 is a season for beginning to answer questions for what comes in 2019 and beyond. I was against major expenditures in the Free Agent market if they necessitated a multi year signing. Therefore Andrew Cashner’s contract was minimally acceptable, since if he proved valuable, he could be traded for future value at the deadline. Thus far, his performance has proved somewhat surprising, So if it continues, he may show to be the Orioles second best commodity in July.
Not quite as surprising, is that the younger players are here, learning and mostly playing well. Trey Mancini, while experiencing some misfortune, generally picked up where he left off last season. Sisco and Santander both look to be part of the future. I thought that Cortes rather than Araujo would’ve been the Orioles keeper, but I have to hand it to him. He has shown well in his limited opportunities so far.
As for the Orioles dysfunctional roster and organization in general, no surprises there. I believe the Cobb signing may end up being regrettable, although not quite as appalling as the recently ended Jimenez contract. Hopefully, at some point, they’ll be able to jettison it for some value. I believe that Duquette and possibly Showalter could be gone at the end of the season, with the result of Brady Anderson taking over the baseball side of the organization, and it clearly looks like Peter Angelos’s sons are exerting greater influence over the forward direction of the team. These are some of my questions, and it appears that they will be addressed this season and once complete, there will be a clearer path to 2019 and beyond.
Great post.
Why Davis isn’t sent home p the minors
I can’t believe the Caleb Joseph of 2016 is back.