Tap-In Question: Is the talent ‘there’ for Davis or are his days of being a feared hitter gone?

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• Here's my analysis. I'm sorry I named my dog Crush after him. (my dog can't hit either)

  Hell no Davis can't hit anymore. He's totally lost at the plate and has been for quite some time.

  I know that won't get me a drink chip, but in the wake of yesterday's victory, 1st round is on me boys.

  Go O's!

  • I'm taking the drink from that round. I've lost all hope for Ubaldo At Bat. Aging power hitter contracts always make my desire for NFL style contracts and salary cap increase. Whether it's Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols, you have to be able to cut weight. Conversely, front offices can stop overpaying for power any time now...

  • Good stuff both of you and thanks Boog for saving me around. And Ubaldo At Bat is a turn of phrase.

    • I've been calling him "Mario Mendoza With Power" for a couple years now. But now that he needs a telescope to see Mendoza's mythical line, I like this moniker better.

  • Mendoza with Power is hilarious too. Well, to me anyway.

• Whether he’sl lost it or not, he clearly doesn’t have it now. He needs to stop waving at pitches and hitting into the shift. Go to the plate with the mindset of hitting it to left. Forget about the HR. If that’s successful, he’ll start getting pitches he can turn on. If not, the Ubaldo contract won’t look so bad.

  • Yeah, abandoning power for hits is difficult to swallow I imagine. But nothing else has worked.

• I have the utmost respect for players at this level. Average fans, like me, simply can’t relate to both the physical and mental demands. Having said that (here I go), I just don’t get Davis. No one expects him to be Tony Gwynn, but until he commits to hitting to the left side, the shift will continue to eat him for breakfast. Let’s face it, his bat has slowed down. He can’t catch up to fastballs as he once could. He makes no adjustments with two strikes ( none). He never shortens the swing, tries to go the other way.

  The league has adjusted to Davis. Until he compensates for his slowing bat speed and hits more the other way, expect the same result. I sure hope he commits to doing that, because it’s going to be a long 4 years of talking about this.... I’m voting that he adjusts, not that I really think he will, but the Ubaldo topic (bad contract, hold onto him despite hurting the team) became tiring, and this one will too.

  • I don’t think I agree on the fastball part. A Little sure. But I think it is more pitch recognition and the other things you suggest than not catching up to a fastball.

• Davis' offensive stats (BA, OBP, SLG, etc.) have all been on a steady decline since 2016, and he's not getting any younger, so the prospect for a turnaround at this point doesn't look good. As Buck's comments imply, unless Davis is willing, and able, to make a dramatic change in his approach to hitting, he will just continue the downward spiral.

  • Very succinct, Bird. Drink chip.

• I see Davis showing signs of getting it back on occasion, but he rarely sustains it. That being the case, I think that's mostly just coincidence rather than a bona fide return to form. Something is different. If you look at his swing in 2013 when he was killing the ball, his swing was faster through the strike zone and he wasn't opening up nearly as early. He could hit the down and away pitch. He had power to all fields. Now, his swing is slower through the zone and his front shoulder comes out way too soon. He can't handle the down and away pitch and he looks completely lost. The issue is, in my opinion, both mechanical and mental. I believe the talent is there. But I believe he needs to be less focused on playing games and more focused on relearning his swing. I'd guess he's had about all the different forms of therapy he could have to try to correct the mental part, but I'd guess he still needs more. Whatever is going on, I hope he gets it back. At this point, he's over two years into a horrid slump and I don't hold out hope that he's going to get back to 2013 or 2015 form again.

  • Solid points as always.

• I still think he can be a productive power hitter. In his defense he has had several injuries the past few years. If you look at 2014 he had similar numbers to last year. This was after hitting 53 hrs. He missed a good many ST games that havent helped. Giving him a few days off may benefit him too.Trumbo coming back may help as well.

  • Good point. He played most of 16 with a busted thumb. But there wasn’t a rebound in 2017 to make you think 2016 was mainly physical.

• The Orioles are on the hook for this contract, whether he plays here or elsewhere. If they are out of the race by the All-Star break, they have a decision to make with Chris Davis. It’s not like Ubaldo, who pitched every 5th day and you could move into the bullpens. The position players are too valuable and, simply put, Chris Davis hurts the team with this performance. If they release him, move Mancini to first base, they can promote outfielders (Hays, Mullins), especially if they trade Adam Jones. Admit you made a mistake with the contract (it’s not the first), release him (eat the contract), and put the team’s on-field performance and future first, not stubbornly holding onto Chris Davis waiting for the “turnaround”.

  • You’d be eating over $100 million. No shot.

• He seems lost and the bat seems slow. The O’s do not eat contracts so I see him retiring after the 2019 season. He has too much pride to just collect a pay check.

  • Too much pride to collect a $23 million a year paycheck? I wonder what Mrs. Crush thinks about that?

  • After the 2019 season, Davis will still have roughly $69 million remaining on his contract. When's the last time a player just walked away from that kind of money?

  • Yep. Won’t happen.

• First off let me mention that Buck's comment had a "Stengalese(Casey)" ring to it. Now Davis. No I think he's shot to put it crudely. I think the league has adjusted and totally baffled him. I think his reflexes have slowed. Don't know why he can't at least bend his knees(a la Harper) when at the plate. The million dollar question is--being that he will get paid regardless does he HAVE to play? Can he ride the bench? Its holding the organization back.

  • That’s true. He doesn’t have to play. But he’s still the best defensive 1B they have. Although I’m not sure how far behind Mancini and even Trumbo are.

  • He may be our best defensive first baseman, but first base is a bat-first position.

• Once upon a time I stuck a "_19" at the end of my username on some Orioles fan site to signify my fandom of a particular player who wore that jersey. Overall, I'm still a fan of the person who wears that jersey in the O's lineup, he's a great teammate and he does fantastic work for the community. He used to be able to beat the shift by hitting the ball where they ain't, so to speak, which was well over their heads. He didn't just hit for power either, as he hit to a .262 clip in 2015, which while being nothing to write home about, it wasn't practically an automatic out either.

  What can you say about Mr Davis now? He's just not seeing the ball or driving it the way he used to, even compared to last season. If you want to do a deep dive into some analytical stats, he has a BABIP of .236 which suggests he's getting very unlucky on balls he hits in play, and his ground ball rate has soared to 47.3% compared to his career 35.7%. His hard hit ball rate is way down and his medium hit ball rate is way up. He's simply not approaching the ball like he did as recently as last year.

  Can he fix it? Is this it for him, and 4.8 more seasons of his contract? I don't know to be honest, but I sure hope not.

  • I submit for your consideration that perhaps rather than bad luck, the .236 BABIP has something to do with his refusal/inability to go the other way, but instead, repeatedly hitting into the shift.

    • Sure, the .236 BABIP isn’t helped by his inability to go the other way but that was never part of his game. Something a long the lines of you can’t teach an old dog a new trick or something. Creative answered his own question for Davis’ babip. His grounder rate went from 23.6 to 47% That explains the BABIP right there.

  • Nothing to be ashamed of 19, Dave McNally was a hell of a pitcher.

  • And Johnny Unitas a great QB.

  • And an awesome song by Steely Dan.

• He really hasn't had a great season since 2015. Two subpar seasons in a row, and a third now that shows no signs whatsoever of any turnaround. The answer is really quite simple.

  • Maybe. Odds are certainly in the favor of you being right. Really right.

• I submit for your consideration that perhaps rather than bad luck, the .236 BABIP has something to do with his refusal/inability to go the other way, but instead, repeatedly hitting into the shift.

  • I submit that you are referencing BABIP. What the heck. You owe Folkemer a fake beer. Or 26.

    • BRR I love the BABIP reference, I would gladly pony up for a beer for you!

      • Thanks '63 .... but the BABIP reference goes to the thread Creatively_19 started. (look above a couple of spots)

        But hey, is the beer offer still on the table? ( I had to give the bulk of mine to Folkemer)

    • I'm getting rather low on fake chips.

• Even in his best days Davis did not have great back to back years. Three years into this contract i think Davis can't catch up to good fastballs and takes too many breaking pitches. Players don't recover from three year droughts and I am not buying all the nagging injury stuff. Keeping Ubaldo in the rotation and even on the roster was a lose-lose because the money was wasted anyway. Same with Crush so put him on the bench until we can afford the payout. We have better options available and don't let him block them.

  • One thing I’ll be curious about is when/if the org moves Mountcastle off third base.

• TWO YEARS is not a slump. This is the CD that Texas gave up on. He swings at pitches out of the strike zone & then takes pitches right down the middle b/c he's guessing. Batting him in the middle of the batting order will continue to kill run production. If he has to play, bat him 7th or 8th.

  • Took some time for the order thing to come up. Drink chip.

    • IIRC, in 2011&2012 when little was expected of him, he batted 6th or 7th and he prospered

• I think Davis can be fixed I just don't think we have the coaching staff capable of fixing him.

  • I’m not sure it’s the coaching staff’s fault. From what I see and hear Coolbaugh sure as hell tries. But it’s ultimately up to the player.

• I think there is still talent there, but his inability to go against the shift is the major issue. His high batting average seasons were a bit of a fluke. If he could rebound to his Dave Kingman .220 with 40 HR levels, I could live with that because of the defense he provides as well. Mancini is a big drop off defensively if you look at the past 2 games. He is not going anywhere unless he gets hurt . No one is going to take him right now even if O's eat the majority of the contract. It was a bad move when they signed him and as you are seeing, the rest of the industry is souring on long term contracts for power guys unless they are early 20's.

  • True. Power ain’t what it used to be on the open market.

• I hope I am wrong because we are stuck with him but I think he is broke and can t be fixed. I hope he likes sitting the pines because that is where he will be spending his days with the O's. Mancini is the the first baseman. He is hitting better there why change .

  • With all due respect Bick, it’s the Second time you’ve said this. Mancini has 3 starts at 1B all season. The numbers are the same. And the sample size is too small to matter.

• He'll start hitting again. No one bangs 53 and 47 jacks without knowing what they are doing. Everything is between the ears with Mr. Davis, and his status as a very wealthy man ironically makes it even more difficult. Such is life. We just have to sit and wait. The Orioles aren't eating the contract. And Chris Davis isn't going listen to every guy at the bar with a mouthful of buffalo wings telling him to bunt against the shift and start hitting bloop singles into left. Davis hits the ball over the fence. That's why he is in Major League Baseball. He's not transforming into Ichiro. If he bunts down the third base line and gets on first, the ball is not in flag court so the opposing pitcher wins. What, he's now on base so the immortal Caleb Joseph can bat him in?

  We're stuck with this guy, for better or worse. Is the contract bad ? Absolutely. The same people who talk about how stupid the Orioles are for resigning Davis, weren't they the same ones on message boards and talk radio threatening to sell their season tickets, never go back to the stadium, burn jerseys blah blah blah if the O's DIDN"T retain Crush and his 47 HRs in the winter of 2015? You better believe it.

  • Drink chip. Enough said.

• Yes, I believe it is still there for Davis, he just turned 32 in March, physically he looks in good shape, plays well at 1B, isn't over the hill yet. He has that "what the heck is going on with me" look a lot when he walks back from the plate to the dugout, I kind of feel for him.

  Glad Buck is trying something like "talk therapy" with him. Would a fresh face at hitting coach help? Or maybe bring in someone with a rep for rebuilding struggling power hitters if there is someone like that available. Maybe an approach where you go back to kindergarten if you will and someone he trusts go overs hitting with him as if he had never swung a bat.

  I hope he turns it around, it is painful to watch him struggle at the plate as a fan, I can only image how bad it is for him personally.

  • I think it has been pretty bad for him. As Buck says, imagine being really good at something and then not being able to do it nearly as well. That’s frustration.

• My favorite pastime is watching him take two belt-high cookies for strikes then give himself one swing to try to do something off a breaking ball.

  • Well, you certainly are seasoned at it.

• Chris Davis is a nice guy and tries probably too hard for his own good, but something went on or is going on with him. This guy was known as one of the biggest power hitters in the game, he signs a long term contract, then during one of the biggest homerun surges in baseball he is MIA. Since the signing even when he does hit its not the same power and distance since signing that contract. He looks very ordinary. The eye test the past 2 years tells me something dramatic happened once he signed.

  • It’s a hard game, man. I think it is more likely something much smaller that snowballs, like a lack of confidence or whatever.

• If this was truly a “business,” Davis would be moved at any cost (loss) — it’s called cutting your losses, improving by subtraction in this case. His defensive play at 1st hadn’t been any better than Mancini’s, and there are better OF’s in the minors that deserve a look.

  If Davis was truly a team player, I’d expect him to accept a demotion to AAA to try to fix his problems. (Mental injury rehab?) I’d even go so far as to cut him: when another team takes him, they are at least paying the MLB minimum, which equals the MLB minimum the Os would pay his replacement, so for no financial change, the team gets better. That is good business. And morale improves.

  I sure hope CD can return to the success he enjoyed previously. If not here, then elsewhere.
  These is exactly how I’d have handled Jimenez and Tillman, too...

  • Easy to say with someone else’s money. But eating $100-plus million is nuts. It’s why these types of teams don’t buy big. It’s not that they can’t afford the splurge; it’s that can afford splurges when the big one implodes. That’s the real difference between a large market teams and smaller ones: the ability to absorb high-priced mistakes. Getting nothing in return at $23 million a year is a disaster. You have to hope he gives something back. At least for the next year or so. It’s not like he is Pujols’ age

• I think he's done. I just don't see anything that can give me hope. This sucks cause I like the guy and I want him to do well

  • Sure.

• Got too many things going on today to read all of the previous responses right now... but I’ll answer the question with this:

  Yes, I believe he’s still got it, and can get it back... IF... and only if, he truly buys in to the simple philosophy of “get on base”, any way, any how.

  If that means bunt towards 3rd every at bat until they quit shifting on ya, then bunt. If it means choking up on the bat and simply slapping the pitch the other way or over the infield, then choke up. Get on base... don’t just swing the shileghlie like it’s another routine day on the job. Do whatever needs to be done.

  • I’d agree. Get on base. Be productive and maybe that confidence builds

• Beware of power-hitting first basemen from Texas named Davis! :) There's no explaining jinxes.
  One note: hitting away from the shift is not so easy. The pitcher isn't going to help you. Even Ted Williams rarely went the other way, and he had the friendly Green Monster to tattoo.

  • Agreed. all of it is easier said than done, will.

• Asking for a friend...a second positive test results in a year suspension, right? and the team isn't on the hook for that money? Maybe Crush needs to borrow Miggy's B12 supplements...

  • Honestly I don’t know what the penalty is for a second amphetamine positive. Don’t think that has happened in MLB since the penalties changed.

• It's hard to figure out how someone with Davis' gifts, and desire, can seemingly lose it overnight, but he has appeared to be lost for some time now -- long enough that it's hard to imagine he'll regain the power stroke and confidence he once had. Like a lot of the Orioles, he's a guy you want to see do well, but there comes a point where you might need to change his role even though you're paying him a lot.

  • At the very least drop him further in the lineup or not play him every day. There are ways to absorb the impact of his lack of impact.

• My opinion, CD has that deer in the headlights look to him at the plate. And Buck is right about SINGLES in a run or two instead of hr's and hitting the ball the other way doesn't require a new hitting coach. One other thing, If this contract is weighing on him to live to, then go to the warehouse and renogiate a new deal with best interest to both sides. Leave Scott Boros out of it like ARod did with the yanks. More deferred $$$ would be a start. Get his salary more in line say 8 - 10 mil per year. Money saved could then be used for keeping Manny. If he would do that, most Oriole fans would love CD all over again. Something to consider, for him and Orioles front office/ownership.

  • He is already deferring a chunk of it. And it’s the not contract that is weighing on him, it’s the pressure of not living up to expectations. I’m sure he is fine with the actual money.

• I think he has a chance to be a useful major league player. Maybe 30 HRs a year with an OBP in the .320 range. I don't think he will ever recapture the 2013 and 2015 version of himself.

  On a side note, I think one reason that the Buck Showalter/Dan Duquette era team will never win a pennant is because, from 2013 to 2016, they had MLB's home run leader, and yet from the group of Davis, Cruz, and Trumbo, they resigned Davis and Trumbo and let Cruz walk.

  • They didn’t want to give a four-year deal to a 34-yo guy with leg issues. That was the thinking. Both Trumbo and Davis were several years younger than Cruz at the time of free agency. Obviously, Cruz would have been fine on the fourth year.

• I think it has to do with his ADD and Major League baseball overruling doctor with Adderall is total bs. With Chris I think it is all a focus deal

  • He now has a TUE to take medication again.

• With Seager going down what’s your take on Machado to LA? Sooner rather than later is what I’m thinking. I understand guys don’t get moved until the deadline but this may be that once in 20 years kind of circumstance that makes it happen. They have the prospects and now have the need in a big way.

  • Verdugo and Mitchell White please. ( I’m sure Walker Buehler is off limits)

  • You’re right. Guys don’t usually get moved until July. There is a reason for that. Teams decide what they are by then and some may get a little panicky. I’m sure the Dodgers are putting out feelers but I also imagine Taylor will take the job and they’ll see what happens in the outfield. Overall, looks like a good fit. But I think it’s too early for a blockbuster.

• Dan...Advise DD that Corey Seager out for year with Tommy John....keep Manny out of AL and have him go to Dodgers who have the money to keep him in a big market and have strong farm system especially in pitching department. This is a marriage made in the City of Angels (not Anaheim) so DD "Let's Make A Deal."
  Mr Will

  • Same as above. Good fit. But timing isn’t there yet I’m sure.

• Not sure what all the fuss is about? His last 34 ABs he has hit .235. His career avg. is .244. HR hitters like Davis can hit HRs in bunches.

  The problem is he only had 28 ST ABs. Normal is about 80. It wasn't until prior to these last 34 ABs that he had a normal spring number of ABs.

  If he is truly healthy he should be at career norms from here on out. His power numbers will also increase, but they may never get back to 50+ given his limitations at the plate.

  • I can’t imagine he gets to 50 plus. But 25 plus is the bigger question.

• I'm afraid Chris Davis is following in the footsteps of Glenn Davis, and I don't think we'll get any further productivity from him. At least this time we only lost dollars, and we didn't give up Curt Shilling, Pete Harnish, and Steve Finley for no return.

  How does a situation like this affect the clubhouse? Do other players start to resent him and his big bucks contract? I'm particularly thinking of Manny.

  • Sooner or later, i would think that sympathy turns to resentment ... especially IF&when he blocks the path of someone else who can help the team win. The team doesn't like their daily lives being miserable or objects of ridicule.

    The Orioles scored fewer runs than many NL teams who don't have the benefit of a DH.

  • I’m not sure resent is the right word. But they are quite aware.

• It’s tough. He’s only 32. Another poster said just focus on getting on base. That’s a good start. Like a shooter in basketball who is streaky, and in a funk, focus on the short shots or layups. He has power, he’s a big dude, channel that power all around the field. Stop giving in to the shift, and shift himself. Start with a damn bunt or 2, then try to slap the ball the other way multiple times. I like how he makes pitchers work, that does help his teammates also, but get on base any which way you can. He doesn’t have to go to the plate to jack one every time, which is what everyone wants. SHIFT YOUR FOCUS CHRIS! When they shift, you shift.

  • It all makes sense, but to change the mindset that has gotten you so much success in the past is easier said than done of course.

• Davis has changed in so many ways. I watched him laugh (via TV) in the dugout after a horrible bunt attempt. A competitor would have been embarrassed. He was laughing. I doubt there is any "there" there anymore.
  Big life changes ... money, kids, age seem to be taking their toll.

  • You got all that from a laugh? These guys don’t just stop caring.

• It would be interesting to see if he could even hit AAA pitching. I am doubtful. It's sad when the bar has been lowered so much as "well, he didn't strike out today."

  • What would that matter? He’s not going to be facing AAA pitching. He’s in the big leagues. Has to figure out the best consistently.

• I will admit that I was 100 per cent for signing Chris Davis. That being said, I have never seen a guy lose it so dramatically. One thing in his favor: he has become an outstanding defensive first baseman. I would bat him very low in the lineup to reduce the pressure and see what happens. But, the Orioles problems go far beyond Davis.

  • Fair enough.