I always enjoy when a previous blog entry leads us to a Connolly’s Tap Room topic.
That happened Tuesday, when I wrote about shortstop Manny Machado, and stressed the Orioles’ need to remain patient until late July when they can get the most for him on the trade market.
Several of the comments I received – on our site and on social media – were about whom the Orioles also should make available at the trade market.
Some fans say everyone. Others suggest that a core of younger players should be considered untouchable.
I get both sides of that argument. But what got your barkeep thinking was about that core.
Who exactly should the Orioles build around?
I’m not counting a Hunter Harvey or an Austin Hays. Those guys are still prospects, and the Orioles aren’t in a position – organizationally or standings-wise – to be siphoning off potential prospects. Besides, we don’t yet know what those guys — and Ryan Mountcastle, DJ Stewart, Cedric Mullins, et cetera — are yet.
I’m asking about the group that is currently on the 25-man roster. Who should be the Orioles’ priority to keep as this club moves forward?
I’d think these three are no-brainers: 26-year-old outfielder Trey Mancini, under team control through 2022; 25-year-old right-hander Dylan Bundy, under team control through 2021; and 23-year-old catcher Chance Sisco, under team control through 2023.
The other two that were mentioned several times by readers this week as part of the build-around core: 27-year-old right-hander Kevin Gausman, signed through 2020, and 28-year-old reliever Mychal Givens, signed through 2021.
I’m a little torn on Gausman and Givens. I don’t think Gausman’s trade value is as high as it needs to be for the Orioles to justify dealing away a starting pitcher under control for two more seasons after this one. The Orioles are seemingly always pursuing starting pitching, and though Gausman may not have as high of a ceiling as the Orioles had hoped, it’d be foolish to give him away unless a trade partner provides a can’t-miss package.
The opposite scenario fits Givens. His trade value is rather high now, given his performance, potential upside, contract controllability and the way some teams salivate over relievers. He may have more current trade value than anyone on this roster besides Machado and Jonathan Schoop.
If that’s true, maybe the Orioles should deal Givens now and worry about a future closer later. Of course, if the team trades pending free agents Zach Britton and Brad Brach, they absolutely would need Givens to provide quality innings from the bullpen unless they fully punt this year. It’s a tough call, because Givens is both good now and potentially could be better as the next core blossoms.
The other name that should be mentioned here is Schoop, the 26-year-old, All-Star second baseman who is a free agent after next season. Obviously, if you’re gonna build around him, it must be through an extension soon, or the Orioles will be dealing with Machado 2.0 this time next year.
I’m not sure if there is anyone left – Adam Jones? Tim Beckham? Richard Bleier? – to throw into that “build-around” core, but maybe there is.
Maybe you don’t think there is anyone to truly build around, and you’d seriously consider offers for everyone including Bundy, Mancini and Sisco.
It’s your call. The barkeep is listening.
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I would try to extend Schoop. If not you would have to trade him during the off season or by next year's trade deadline. Bundy. Gausman, and Cobb would be the core starting rotation. Givens, Blier, Castro, and Scott the bullpen.
I would like to bring Jones back. Schoop if he can be signed. Mancini and Sisco would be your other young players to build your offense around.
I think it’s too late for Schoop, and with his rough start it may be that last season was an anomaly.
Best option may be to try and re-sign as a FA. I think the next offseason will help with this either way. If it’s slower like this past one, players expectations may adjust and we may be able to get more years at lower value. On the flip, if it is a bonanza, most of the big spenders will have emptied their pockets and we could see players with unrealistic expectations kind of having to settle for less near the end of free agency.....perfect for the Os to sweep in and snatch a bargain
Playing that free-agent, waiting bargain game, though, is what has gotten them into trouble at times, too.
You ask too obvious a question. For the sake of argument, I'm assuming that Machado is simply not going to be here after this season, although I still think there's a chance. Soooo, who else? First off, I don't think you can build a team around a pitcher. First, they only play 1 of 5 games, and secondly, nobody knows when that golden arm is going to go bust. So of the position players, and at a point this early in their careers, between Mancini, Sisco and Schoop ... Schoop is the only player that could possibly considered a perenially all star. Sign him up for my team please. I'm sure we'll see, 3 out of 4 of the next commenters will agree. Too obvious an answer.
The only thing here Boog is that it’ll probably take more money to retain Schoop than it would at this point to extend Bundy, Gausman and Mancini combined. Or close anyway. Not saying I wouldn’t. But that is roughly the reality.
I misunderstood the question Mr. Connolly. I was thinking you wanted ONE player to build around. My bad.
No worries. I’d agree tho. No financial constraints it would be Manny than Schoop. Just not the reality.
IF that is indeed the reality going forward, aren't the O's always going to be mediocre ... or trying to catch lightning in a bottle? If they can't retain players of Machado quality when they are lucky enough to develop one aren't they going to be a developmental team for the rest of MLB ??
Dan, I think you hit the nail on the head with Bundy, Mancini, and Sisco. Signing them to extensions (preferably ones that don’t all end the same year) would send a nice message to the fan base that there’s a long term plan and these guys are it. I think you trade Givens and Gausman without question but for different reasons
Givens should go because someone will overpay for him.....with prices on relievers jumping, Givens should bring back a lower Top 100 prospect and some other interesting pieces.
Gausman should be moved for two reasons. First, if he can keep his performance up, this will be his best season by far and you never know if he actually turned the corner or if it was just a fluke. Secondly, I think the Os need to really focus on the attitude/personality of the team. During our winning seasons we extended blue-collar, grinder type players (Hardy, Jones). The kinds of players who were never a distraction in a bad way. I think Gausman has at times seemed immature or less than accountable when he’s struggling. I could see an extension back firing the same way being named opening day starter seemed to give him a chip on his shoulder last year.
I’m not sure I buy that on Gausman, personality-wise. I don’t see any of that immaturity you suggest. I don’t have one concern about his makeup. It’s all a matter of harnessing the talent.
I have maintained that you extend Schoop and build the team around him with Mancini and the young guys coming up. Keep Jones around maybe in right field as the mentor for the young guys. Schoop will be a lot but i think it is proven in today's MLB it is almost impossible to contend without at least one big player contract. Also deal Briton and Brach, make Givens the closer and utilize O'Day as the set up man. I would hope we start seeing guys like Mullins and Mountcastle up in the bigs by June at the latest.
Wow, Brooks. That’s pushing the young guy element. Mountcastle just started playing this month due to the hand injury. And Mullins is hitting around .250 at AA. I wouldn’t think you’d see either until Sept — the earliest. And neither is on the 40-man so that is far from a given.
yeah our young talent is very green just having so many rule 5 ers on opening day tells the story of just how not ready our farm system is
Dan,
I Believe attempting to extend Gausman and Bundy now would be a step in the right direction with a rebuild. I have posted before that IMO rebuilds that invest heavily in pitching as opposed to hitting are much tougher and potential longer.
Gausman, since his delivery change has become a more over the top pitcher, as opposed to coming at 2/3 angle release point. His wind up and delivery previously gave hitters a better opportunity to see and react to his pitches despite 97 mph heat. With his new delivery, I believe the OS may have done something right and harnessed a more deceptive delivery. Having Bundy and Guasman, along with Cobb gives the Os a chance to rebuild fairly quickly with 3 very good SP pitchers.
I would also keep Sisco, see what I have in Hayes, Mulluns, and stewart. DH Davis, move Mancini to first to see if the move change increases his value for an off season trade, or has him more focused on the game and (maybe) contributes to an uptick in a progression at the dish. ( At which point you keep him at 1st and DH Davis)
All trades would be catered around finding young postional talent as the center pieces, while acquiring young lottery ticket types as the starting pitchers as second and third pieces in the return. My next (2) drafts would be focused on college level postional players who are 1-3 years away from contributing with the top couple of picks.
Thanks,
Greg
Good stuff, Greg. I can’t say I agree with every point, but all well-reasoned. Drink chip.
I've been a rebuilder since last year. But, rebuild for when? Can the O's possibly be good before 2013, the year Chris Davis is gone? Moreover, I get very depressed when I observe the typical disarray in the organization. Thus, question 2: who might make good decisions? I don't see anyone. Go Os!
I mean, you have to rebuild for a set period. Maybe 2-3 years. But if you have developing talent it can pop at anytime. The Phillies began the rebuild in mid2015 and are popping now or soon anyway.
First of all it's interesting how Schoop is not even a candidate. I guess he's considered gone huh? Can I say nobody? Mancini seems to be ok/good but nothing special,Sisco a long shot,Bundy worries me. My candidate--Gausman. He seems to be coming into his own and along with Cobb gives the O's a little rotation hope.
I think you are sleeping on Bundy. He’s only 25. We forget that. And I think Schoop is a candidate. For sure. I’m just skeptical it happens
Basically it sounds like re Schoop that the O's haven't learned from their mistake with Manny. That is a depressing thought.
I think Schoops gonna get paid big time Jason Kipnis is getting 13,6 per year and Schoop has better numbers and will be probably approach 18-20 mill per year on the open market
what do you think of that bold statement Dan lol
I like our guys and all, but honestly I look at that list of names, and I choose option D: None of the above. I just don't think you've got any future hall of famers on this club besides Machado. Schoop might be the closest, and he's really good, but he's probably not sticking with the O's after 2019 either. I want to see Adam Jones play out the rest of his days in an Oriole uniform, but nobody is building a team around him. Our starters are not proven, and whoever has serious trade value right now out to be dealt, no exceptions. I guess the answer is actually Chris Davis, because he's the only player signed to a contract that ensures he's not going anywhere for a long time, but that's definitely not the answer you're looking for either. Bah, gimme a tall natty boh to wash the taste of this organization from my mouth.
On its way. And an extra drink chip for your troubles. Good post.
Dan, there are young players I'd like to see stay in the organization, but there is no one I would build around. The bigger question for me is, who is going to be in charge of the rebuild and when will they be in place?
I believe parts are already in place for that. I don’t see Anderson or Showalter going anywhere.
Amen, Mr. Gibbons! Who is responsible? Also, pull a Pablo Sandoval with Chris Davis, that would be a great start to a re-build and a message to all. BTW, if Bordick calls him THE CRUSHER one more time, I think I will puke.
No way the Orioles can handle that kind of sunk costs at this juncture. Say what you want, Boston’s ability to absorb bad contracts is among the top in baseball. I mean, you can do it. But don’t expect another high-priced player for, I dunno, a decade.
Since your question wasn't a woulda, coulda which should have made Machado and Schoop your core, I say no one though I really like Givens. Why weren't the Os more aggressive with extensions or real trades instead of the Norfolk Shuffle and Rule 5 roulette? We may never know but at this point let's be imaginative and make me an offer for anyone on the roster.
They aren’t usually aggressive when it comes to locking up their own players. Doesn’t happen often.
Good thought provoking question Dan. It is rebuild time. I agree that Mancini, Cisco, and Bundy are no-brainers. Schoop can stay if he signs an extension now. I can't fathom going through this again next year albeit on a smaller scale with Schoop. Gausman probably doesn't get you anything worth more than he is at this point, so I keep him as he is still at least middle of the rotation solid, which we always seem to lack. Givens will never have a higher trade value and I think I am willing to give him away for prospects at this point. I see arm problems for him eventually and his control seems to be less than stellar sometimes. As I have said in multiple posts, I would like to see Jones stay as a corner guy next year as I think he is a great veteran voice for the clubhouse. Get all you can for Britton, Manny, and Brach. Bring up the young guys and let's lose with them as long as it they aren't completely over matched.
Good post. I’m still not sure that Jones would be willing to move from CF unless they have someone truly better. I don’t see that yet.
I would build the position players around Sisco and the starting pitching around Bundy and my closer would be Scott. I would move Mancini to first and move Davis to DH or the bench until he gets his hitting stroke back. The leader in the OF is to be determined.
Interesting that several of you have said Scott. Not sure I have seen enough of him yet to put him in this category. But he certainly has the arm.
There's a lot I want to talk about, but my main point is that there should be a full-scale rebuild. The window with the current core closed, and we need to move on so that the rebuild takes less than 14 years this time. I agree with building around Sisco, Mancini, and Bundy, but I'd add a fourth. I think Kevin Gausman has finally figured it out, he's throwing his split change a lot more and finally looking like we thought he would for years. I'd extend him NOW before he gets too much better. With the exception of those four, everyone currently on the 25 man should be on the table, if you get a good enough offer.
I'd commit to the fire sale this year, because there's no reason not to. I know Schoop isn't a free agent until next year, but you'd get a lot more for a year and a half of his services than you would as a three month rental.
As much as I want Adam to stick around long term, he wants to win a World Series, and who can blame him? He won't be able to do that here with Baltimore rebuilding, so I'd trade him off as well, as much as it hurts.
With the prospects (Pitching or otherwise) that we get back for Manny, Schoop, and everyone else, we'd be able to build a solid core. We have almost a full outfield coming up through the minors right now (Hays, Mullins, and Stewart). I think Mountcastle could move to second, Mancini to first. Rotation of Bundy, Gausman, Harvey, Hess, and/or any prospects we get, and suddenly this team doesn't look so bad and could be back to contending within 3-5 years.
Good stuff. Tho I don’t think Mountcastle ends up at second. First base or LF is more likely if 3B can’t work.
I wouldn't mess with the starting rotation. As any O's fan knows, it's the hardest thing to assemble and maintain, and the current iteration at least gives you something to work with every night. I'd unload Givens for youth as soon as he strings together a nice scoreless innings streak. He's too mercurial and finding bullpen pieces is a strength of the Warehouse. As for who to build around, while I don't see a franchise cornerstone guy out there, you have a few decent bricks. Mancini looks like a guy who won't be an All-Star but can have a solid 15 year career. Sisco may be in the same boat, but its still too early to tell. Schoop seems like an above average guy who strings together an All Star season every once in a while, an infield Adam Jones if you will. How about a 2019 team that looks like this:
C- Sisco
1B- Mancini
2B- Schoop
SS- Free Agent Veteran
3B- Mountcastle
RF- Hays
CF- Mullins
LF- Jones (now wearing a ring after a few week sojourn with a contender in the fall)
DH- Davis
Utility-Beckham
It ain't gonna get you 90 wins, but it's a start
Looks good, under the circumstances, though I’d platoon Trumbo & Davis @ DH, giving Trumbo more starts, even against RHs.
Trumbo is starting to hit, so has got a big fat price tag around his neck this summer. CLEARANCE SALE, SLIGHTLY USED DH, GOOD CONDITION
If he keeps hitting like this, Trumbo’s contract will move up to the “it’s fine” category.
build around Chris Davis I'll have another beer. Yuegling golden pilsner please
You beat me to it - Davis was going to be my (bad joke) choice.
I think the obvious choice is Schoop, but O's probably won't keep him. If they don't intend to sign Schoop to an extension, they should consider trading him now, while he would still be under team control for a year and a half. Otherwise, its going to be a repeat of the Manny situation with Schoop in 2019.
With Manny gone after this season, Schoop probably gone after next season, and Davis stuck in the lineup hitting .160 and striking out 200+ times per season, not much cause for optimism.
I would be curious to see what Schoop would fetch right now. I dunno.
Put everyone on ebay except Bundy, Gausman, Sisco, and Mancini. This team can’t hit, can’t defend, can’t pitch, you know, the 3 biggies of baseball. Might have to watch golf this summer. I hate golf.
Schoop #1, until he had looked so inconsistent this year. Running out of time on the “slow start” and “coming back from injury excuses,” I think.
So I pick Manny — offer him $400,000,000.00 if that’s what it takes, and then be prepared to pay another small country’s GNP for the rest of a decent team. (What do I care, it ain’t my $$$.)
But since that has as much chance as my taking over for Buck... Too soon to know which prospects will pan out. So I go with:
Schoop, Sisco, Mancini, Bundy, Gausman, Gyvens. Everyone else is on the block — though I’d trade anyone at all if the deal would improve the team.
Solid post. One question: with whose money are you buying your bar tab?
Mancini, Bundy, and Sisco are the obvious picks... Bundy and Mancini are already playing at a high level. Sisco is already a serviceable backstop, and his bat should improve with more ABs.
A guy that I would like to see more of is Santander. I personally haven't seen him enough to know what he is, and I think that he is worth exploring.
He def is raw but there is some take talent there. He looks the part.
The die-hard fans and advertisers who inexplicably keep enabling this “organization” by ponying up their hard-earned money?
Actually: why not rack up a $600,000,000.00/year payroll — then file for bankruptcy. What would the court order? Maybe 25-cents on the dollar?
Or would the league void the contracts and make them all free agents?
I don’t see why they would trade Gausman. You’ll spend millions of dollars and countless hours trying to find his replacement. And let’s face it, the Orioles aren’t exactly known as geniuses in the acquisition of pitchers.
I’d build around Schoop, Mancini, Cisco, Givens. It’s a shame the whiff king is clogging up first base, because that would be a perfect place for Mancini, allowing them to focus on outfield defense.
Solid post. Drink chip.
I think the obvious players to build around are the ones we have control over for the next few years. And they really need to get Schoop signed long term. Besides that everyone else is too old or too expensive to be the new core. The O's need to have a plan and stick to it. It never felt like they had a plan during the 14 straight losing season, which is probably a big reason the streak lasted so long
Yeah. They never quite wanted to rebuild or quite wanted to go for it.
I would add Hess to the list, he seems to be ready for a larger role in the majors, definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Is there anyway to watch the O's minor affiliates? I keep an eye on the box scores, but it's just not the same... I wish MiLB was included with my mlbtv subscription...
I’m not sure on the MiLB stuff. And Hess is intriguing but not yet on the radar of building brick.
I don't think the O's are TOO far away from being a good team... While Bundy, Gaussman, Cobb, and Cashner don't exactly strike fear into an opposing lineup, they are all capable starters. We need to fill the 5th spot obviously. But I think some of our pitching woes could be helped with better run support.
Losing Manny hurts (understatement of the year) but Beckham is a solid fielder at SS who can get hot as a hitter, but he is streaky at the plate.
If we could get good returns, in the form of some solid bats, for Manny... Then this team could be competitive as soon as next year.
Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I don't think we need to despair. A lot hinges on what we can get for Manny though
No question that they’ve wasted some good pitching performances with terrible run support
I don't see many pieces to build around unless guys like Schoop or Gausman are extended, and I don't think that would be a good idea.
You have to figure the Orioles, in this division, are probably at least 4-5 years away from being able to contend at a high level. So who does that leave us with? Potentially Harvey, Sisco, Mancini, Hays, and Mountcastle, maybe one or two others in the minors somewhere. On the MLB roster, not much. Honestly I would trade everyone at this point, for the right return. We need to completely rebuild the farm system, invest in international signings, stink for a few years and get some high draft picks, clear the Davis contract, and then we will be ready to contend. So, maybe 2022 or 2023.
I think legitimate competitiveness can happen before then, but the division is certainly a problem; it’s gonna be good for years
Sorry, but don't think any of those 3 are core players unless "In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king." They'll be 'nice', but not core. We've seen that Bundy probably won't be an ace or #2. If Schoop gets it back on track to be anywhere close to last year,he'd be one.
Again, Bundy is only 25. The jury imo is still out on what he can be. A 2 isn’t a stretch if he continues to develop.
Dan, cans I get a shot of angostura bitters for the upset stomach this team has so far given me? Thanks.
Without reading through the comments section I would build around:
Mancini, Schoop, Givens, Sisco, and Bundy and/or Gausman.
The choice between Bundy and Gausman is difficult because I can’t really get a handle on who is going to be the more beneficial pitcher. They’re either both off their game at the same time or alternate between being fire and a wet blanket.
But my gut says, in an Orioles uniform (the player, not my gut) it will ultimately be Bundy.
Thanks Dan.
You got it Ed. Drink up.
Sell the owner. Beer me.
Done. The beer, that is.
I would build around the staggering six Rule 5 players selected in this year’s upcoming winter meetings. Sure, these are guys not deemed good enough to be protected on their original clubs’ 40-man rosters, but one of them is bound to unseat Colby Rasmus in right field.
Hahaha. Drink chip.
well i dont believe we have a core to build around...Mancini is blocked by not only davis but trombone as well at his most valuable position 1B. He is just another passable OF with a potential long term bat and his replacement is easily forecast with either Hayes or stewart. I like him but unless davis is dealt his value is greatly diminished
Bundy and Gausman will be old in the tooth before we are serious contenders again so Im not counting them
Schoop besides Manny is our most valuable player in terms of his bat and more so his position 2B but we wont be able to afford him so hes out for me
Closers are a dime a dozen and not really a priority for a dwindling team so any reliever for me is a trade candidate even though I love watching Givens pitch
which leads me to my only keeper Chance Sisco.. and I think its obvious why..catcher..young, great bat etc
Jones should be dealt to but man how does a team just gut this early or in July given the fans that pay money to watch them play....we need more depth in the minors and on the 25 man roster yet the current string is just about all played out
Ill need a Crown royal and seven barkeep if ive earned it...since im depressed of what i just wrote
I need to say it one more time. Bundy is just 25. Carry on.
I have an “off on a tangent” thought. I’m not sanguine that there is justification for ‘all this’ Mark Trumbo has enhanced value to the Orioles, or for that matter, any other MLB team. While his contract isn’t ‘Chris Davis’ bad, it’s still a substantial overpay for a mediocre, mono dimensional player. He also has a track record that all the teams are certainly aware of. He shows decently during the first half of a season, then somewhere between the All-Star break and the beginning of August, the lights go off.
At that point, no one is ever certain if the bear is out prowling for honey, or if he’s hibernating for the winter.
Manny is the only player currently on the 25 man roster worth building a team around. That ain't gonna happen, so it's time to face the music and begin a firesale. Yes, a FIRESALE!
Can we keep Manny, Schoop and Jones and trade Angelos for some other less tight billionaire? Just a wish.
Man - I'm as die-hard O's fan as they get ( just until recently I was saying "Oh if we could just reel off 18 of 20 we'd be right back to .500 ) ... Okay reality check this team is donzo ...
Duquette needs to be let go ( just bc he's being stepped on by Brady let him go so we know who is making decisions ) ... Trade Manny and Schoop ( not paying Manny 300m and not paying Schoop 200m .... Trade Jones ( I love Jones give him a chance to go play for a ring and maybe he comes back next year - give him 3 / 4 yr 40 mill or something ) ... Trade Britton / Brach / Oday - I would keep Givens he still has a couple years of control ... Keep Bundy / Gausman .... Trade Cobb and Cashner .... And someone get Crash Davis some Adderral PLEASE