Don’t count out the Norfolk Tides just yet.
The Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate, after starting the season 9-16, has found a groove. The Tides have won seven of their last 10 games, climbing within three games of .500.
Norfolk’s pitching has remained a challenge. The club has a 5.19 ERA, fifth-worst in the 14-team International League. Among starting pitching prospects, lefty Keegan Akin (1-1, 4.24 ERA in seven starts) hasn’t distinguished himself, and right-hander Luis Ortiz (1-3, 6.31) has struggled. In the bullpen, the only ERA better than 3.00 belongs to journeyman lefty Sean Gilmartin (2.61). Left-handed prospect Luis Rodriguez has a 10.50 mark in a team-high 12 appearances. It’s hard to find any Tides pitchers worthy of an extended look in the majors right now.
The offense, though, is another story.
The Tides’ bats have sparked the club’s recent turnaround. Norfolk scored a season-high 16 runs in a win over Louisville on April 26, and since then, the team has scored four or more runs in 13 of its 14 games. That included a wild, 20-hit performance against Charlotte on May 4 in which the Tides scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth for a walkoff victory.
A number of Norfolk batters have gone on a hitting spree in recent weeks. Five hitters in particular have stood out as possible candidates for a promotion to the Orioles. Let’s take a look at the case for and against each one.
CEDRIC MULLINS
Stats: .254 BA/.327 OBP/.429 SLG, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs
The case for a call-up: The Orioles haven’t found a center field solution since they demoted Mullins to the minors April 22. Joey Rickard took a crack at the job but hasn’t delivered offensively, batting .196. Stevie Wilkerson has held his own at the plate but isn’t a long-term answer in center, where he played just two minor league games before auditioning in the majors. Mullins is the most capable, MLB-ready defensive centerfielder in the Orioles’ system, and his solid showing at the plate — he’s reached base in all but two of his 15 Norfolk games so far — indicates he might be finding his swing.
The case against: It’s hard to overlook the hitting stats Mullins posted before his demotion. The Orioles’ Opening Day centerfielder went just 6-for-64 (.094) with two extra-base hits, both triples, and looked overmatched by major league pitching. His slump stretched back longer than that, though. In spring training, he batted .151 in 17 games, and in September 2018, he hit .187 with a .512 OPS. Mullins hasn’t hit well in an Orioles uniform since his his first few weeks as a big leaguer last August.
Verdict: Don’t call him up yet. The Orioles should let Mullins, 24, get into a more consistent groove instead of yo-yoing him back to the majors barely three weeks after they sent him there. There’s still more for Mullins to work on in the minors, such as trying to improve his performance as a right-handed batter, where he’s batting just .133 in his major league career. The Orioles may decide that Mullins needs to abandon switch-hitting and bat only from the left side, but that’s a determination they should make before he returns to the bigs.
MASON WILLIAMS
Stats: .276/.360/.839, 5 HRs, 19 RBIs
The case for a call-up: Williams’ name might be unfamiliar to many Orioles fans, but the minor league outfielder has opened eyes in his first year in the organization. The former New York Yankee and Cincinnati Red, signed as a minor league free agent March 28, ranks in the Tides’ top four in OBP, SLG and OPS. Williams is a natural centerfielder, having played 644 games there across all professional levels, so he could potentially plug the Orioles’ hole at that position.
The case against: Williams isn’t on the 40-man roster, so the Orioles would have to find a way to make room for him. There are a few players on the fringes of the roster who could be jettisoned, but is it worth losing a player from the organization to add Williams, who might not be much of an upgrade over Rickard or Wilkerson? At 27, Williams isn’t a washed-up veteran, but he hasn’t fulfilled the potential that made him MLB Pipeline’s No. 75 prospect in baseball in 2014.
Verdict: Call him up. Williams is the right type of player to fill a roster spot in a rebuilding year. He’s not a highly touted prospect who’s going to be a key part of the next winning team, but he’s an inexpensive role player who’s young enough to contribute. The switch-hitting Williams could soak up some starts in center field until Mullins or the rehabbing Austin Hays is ready to claim the spot.
RYAN MOUNTCASTLE
Stats: .319/.347/.500, 5 HRs, 23 RBIs
The case for a call-up: The 22-year-old Mountcastle is the most prominent name in the Norfolk lineup. Ranked the No. 2 prospect in the organization by Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline and my colleague Dean Jones Jr., Mountcastle is considered a potential impact bat in the major leagues. He’s showing off that offensive potential in his first year of Triple-A, leading the Tides in batting average and ranking second in SLG and third in OPS. His offense seems major league ready and he figures to be a key part of the Orioles’ future, so it would make sense to bring him up and inject some excitement into the club’s lineup.
The case against: As promising as Mountcastle looks at the plate, he’s a work in progress in the field. Mountcastle’s iffy defense has already prompted the Orioles to shift him from two positions: shortstop, which he played from 2015-17, and third base, which he tried from 2017-18. The Mike Elias regime moved him to first base this spring, and that’s where he’s made 29 of his 33 starts in 2019. Mountcastle leads the Tides with five errors and could use more time to get comfortable at first base if that’s where he’s most likely to play in the bigs.
Verdict: Don’t call him up yet. While Mountcastle’s major league debut may be one of the most eagerly anticipated in recent Orioles history, the club shouldn’t be in a hurry to promote him. The 2019 season is a rebuilding year in which proper development of prospects takes priority over wins and losses. Mountcastle has only 34 games of Triple-A experience, and it’s not as if the Orioles desperately need his bat to spur them into a pennant race. Besides, his position is occupied by a player, Chris Davis, who has more than $100 million remaining on his contract and has hit well of late. Mountcastle will have his time, but it’s not now.
DJ STEWART
Stats: .259/.390/.500, 6 HRs, 22 RBIs
The case for a call-up: Stewart, perhaps more than any other player listed here, seems as close to a finished project as he’s going to get. The Orioles’ 2015 first-round pick has spent nearly 150 games with Norfolk dating back to last year, and he presented himself well in a 17-game audition with Baltimore in 2018, batting .250 with an .890 OPS and three home runs. And his stellar on-base skills — he leads Norfolk with a .390 OBP and 23 walks — could help an Orioles lineup that ranks second-to-last in the AL in OBP.
The case against: Right now, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious spot for Stewart, a corner outfielder, to play with the Orioles. Dwight Smith Jr. has locked down the everyday left field spot, and Trey Mancini is planted in right field while Renato Nunez serves as the designated hitter. Stewart might already be with the Orioles if he were capable of playing center field, but he’s manned that position just five times in his minor league career.
Verdict: Call him up. There’s not much left for Stewart, 25, to learn at the minor league level, and the Orioles can find a way to work his bat into the mix, perhaps as a pinch-hitter or as a platoon DH with the slumping Nunez (who is 1-for-31 in his last eight games). Even if Stewart’s most likely outcome in the majors is as a reserve outfielder/bench guy rather than an everyday player, the Orioles might as well start to find out.
CHANCE SISCO
Stats: .288/.383/.548, 7 HRs, 25 RBIs
The case for a call-up: After an ice-cold start at the plate, in which Sisco plateaued to a .188 average on April 27, the catcher has been blisteringly hot ever since. He’s gone 19-for-42 in his last 11 games, hitting seven home runs in that span and producing seven multi-RBI games. Sisco leads the team in homers, RBIs, SLG and OPS. The 24-year-old is reminding the Orioles what made him the organization’s top prospect as recently as two years ago.
The case against: As former manager Buck Showalter used to say of potential prospects, “How’s his defense?” Sisco has faced skepticism about his abilities behind the plate, and he hasn’t done much this season to fend off his detractors. Sisco has thrown out just nine percent (two of 22) of attempted base-stealers, his worst mark in any season so far. And his offense can’t be a considered a sure thing, either, considering his 2018 performance. After breaking camp with the Orioles that year, he batted .181 and struck out 66 times in 160 at-bats.
Verdict: Don’t call him up yet. The breakout of new Orioles catcher Pedro Severino, who is hitting well and throwing out baserunners at a league-best 70 percent rate, has lessened the need for Sisco in the majors. The Orioles can let him continue to develop his defense at Norfolk. Still, if he keeps up his hot hitting, look for Sisco to come up sometime this summer, perhaps in a time-sharing arrangement with Severino.
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Well, the O's have room for call ups. They have 3 guys in the lineup hitting under .200 (Davis, Ricard, and Martin). Bring 'em up! What could it hurt?
None of these guys play shortstop, so Martin's struggles aren't really relevant to their chances of a promotion. As for Davis, he has over a .900 OPS in the last month, so he's going to be a fixture in the lineup for a while. Rickard is the one guy I could see being in jeopardy, especially if Mullins or Williams is called up.
C'mon Paul .. why no mention of Anthony Santander?
I'd call up Santander & DJ Stewart at this point. DJ, primarily because I agree with your comments above ...he's at a point where we need to see what he's got. Santander, because I believe in this guy.
There's no reason we need to keep trotting Nunez out there in the DH slot. He is what he is, and frankly, I don't see a future for him in the organization.
Why not rotate Smith, Santander, Mancini & Stewart among the corner outfield and DH spots? And if he's as atletic as he's been billed ... I'd even consider experimenting with DJ Stewart in center for a while?
I'd send Nunez & Rickard packing. (well Davis would be the 1st to go ... but we know that ain't happening)
I wanted to limit the list to five, so I focused on Norfolk's top five hitters by OPS. Santander would've been my sixth guy, but his numbers are a bit below the other guys (.748 OPS). In my pecking order of promotions, he'd be behind Stewart, Williams, and Mullins just among outfielders.
I think Santander has potential, but we've never really seen him put up the numbers to back it up, maybe because he was rushed to the majors too early because of his Rule 5 status. I'd give him a little more seasoning in the minors first.
As far as Mullins goes, he’s a streak hitter. You can go back to his days at Bowie (where I saw him play) and follow his path since then. He was on a “streak” when first called up but after teams took a look at his swing they adjusted for it and Mullins didn’t adjust. His value is his speed but other than running down some fly balls in center, he has to get on base for it to pay off offensively. I put him in the same class as you put Stewart... “most likely outcome in the majors is as a reserve outfielder/bench guy”. The truth of the matter is we don’t have any major league ready players.
I think you're probably right about Mullins' most likely role in the majors, Ekim.
Rickard has always been a mystery to me, once he made it through his Rule 5 season as to what our managers see in him. I am guessing here (Paul you can correct me if I am wrong) but since he was a Rule 5 player, he probably came to the O's straight from A ball. If that is true, he has never (as the Orioles like to do with their prospects) conquered AA or even AAA before he is called up. I wouldn't totally give up on him, but I think he needs to spend a good amount of time at Bowie or Norfolk for the rest of this year. After that, we can see how he does next spring in Sarasota.
Rickard spent time at both AA and AAA the season before the O's acquired him, and, although it was a small sample, he came close to conquering them. He hit .322/.420/.479 in 65 games at Double-A Montgomery and .360/.437/.472 in 29 games at Triple-A Durham. He also hit well last year in 44 games at Norfolk (.275/.384/.412).
Rickard will turn 28 in eight days. I don't think there's any more he can learn in the minors. But the majors are a different beast. He's never had much power, which wasn't a big problem in the minors because he still drew plenty of walks and got on base a lot. But in the majors, pitchers aren't afraid to challenge him in strike zone because they know he's unlikely to hurt them, so his OBP has suffered quite a bit.
Paul: Thanks for clearing up Rickard's minor league stats. I get that he may not have much to learn in the minors, except to start inventing ways to get on base to use his speed. To me, he always looks like he is swinging from his heels trying to hit home runs and just can't hit the ball to all fields.
And there is the answer to who to jettison from the 40 man roster for Williams. Rickard is the Ryan Flaherty of outfielders, somebody who is an average to above average fielder with a below average arm and who will sometimes get two or three hits in a game and make people think he's finally figured out major league pitching. He hasn't. The more you play him, the more his weaknesses are exposed. Williams in 200 major league PAs hit .289 with a .325 OBP. A small sample size to be sure, but far above Rickard's totals.
As for Stewart, another easy call--get rid of Nunez, move Mancini to more or less full-time DH and play Stewart in RF, with Smith in LF, Williams in CF and Wilkerson as the rotating 4th OFer. Nunez has to go sooner or later anyway as Mountcastle is almost certain to slide into the DH spot eventually. As for Cisco, I keep wondering why the Os don't move him to third. He was a shortstop in high school so he should be able to make that transition. If he can handle it, the Os would also have an emergency third catcher if they wanted to make some late inning moves in a close game.
I think the only argument for seeing Mullins in an Os uniform is that Elias went out and touted him as one of the future stars for the team. He has AAAA player written all over him.
I agree with your assessment on Mullins. He needs more time to improve his hitting. Mets have Gregor Blanco, Raja Davis, and Carlos Gomez outfielders on their AAA team. Trading Rickard for one of those veterans could be a temporary fix for a center fielder. This allow extra time Mullins to develop and improve the outfield defense.
I doubt the Mets would be interested in another utility OF w all those guys you mentioned. I’ve thought they could move one of them to the O’s but I’d roll with Williams over those minor league options they have. Now, if they decide Keon Broxton is expendable id hope the orioles would look at him as he’s a fantastic defensive CFer. Huge swing and miss problems but the kind of high upside player the orioles can gamble on.
You have to DFA someone off the current 40 man roster to promote Williams. If they move Rickard that frees up a spot. The 3 I mentioned are in their mid to late 30's. Rickard is 27 maybe a cheaper and younger option for the Mets. If one of those don;t work out they can DFA them and promote Williams. Or another scenario would be promote Williams and assign one of those veterans to Norfolk. Either way a spot has to be opened up by trade or DFA .
No pressing needs at this conjunction(even though there really is) but CF begs for improvement(heard Angels announcers say Wilkerson should have caught that ball). June 1st for Mullins. Agree with Boog--get Santander and/or Stewart back here(Nunez has run his course). Mountcastle and Sisco stay put for same reasons--Defense.
Jim Palmer also said he should’ve caught that ball, and he was correct.
Mason Williams, no. He’s just organizational depth. Maybe he’d be better than Wilkerson but I’m fine rolling w Steve over him. D.J. absolutely needs a call. The guy has shown excellent strike zone recognition in AAA this year and he’s been very good throughout his minor league career. I think DJ could be a guy who actually outproduces what he’s doing in the minors in the major leagues. He has solid pop, a good eye and he’s not afraid to swipe a few bags even though he’s not very fast. Let’s see what he can do and get rid of Nunez. One dimensional 1B/DH power types are always available. Always. Guys like that find their way DFA’d throughout the year. We could’ve had Tyler Austin earlier this year when the twins sent him packing. I think he’s highly replaceable.
But other than Williams. Who, admittedly might get a call because Wilkerson’s 0 walks and 20K’s in 50 some ABS is completely unsustainable, I agree with you completely. Anyone clamoring for Sisco needs to realize you cannot have a catcher who is throwing out 10% of basestealers. That is awful and would negate any positive he gives you w the bat. I was interested in how the rest of his defense looked after Rich mentioned that yesterday and it seems that is also lacking.
I'd advocate for Williams over Wilkerson simply because of defense. Williams is a natural center fielder, Wilkerson isn't. Offensively, I don't think either one is clearly better than the other. And they're both 27, so age isn't a separator. Calling up Williams would allow the O's to slide Wilkerson into a super utility role, playing all around the diamond, which I think is his best role.
He’s not a “super utility” guy if he’s filling in for various infield positions. That just makes him a normal utility infielder.
:-D
Most disagree with me BUT I still say you will see a major roster tweak in JUNE
Mountcastle, Sisco, Willams will all be up in June
Akin could be replacing Hess soon if Hess doesn't improve
Stewart could be a platoon DH and 4th outfielder if he continues his hot streak through May
Rickard, Straily and Nunez could be the next DFA
Wynns could be optioned soon to make room for Sisco and have a Sisco/Severino platoon behind the plate
Our bullpen of Givens, Fry, Castro, Ynoa, and Kline looks good Yacabonis not so much
I would give Santander more AAA ab but bring him up around the all-star break
I said it before and I totally agree with you on the June 1 date. I said awhile ago that the team may be waiting for the traditional Memorial Day benchmark to assess the first 1/3 of the season.
Most disagree with me BUT I still say you will see a major roster tweak in JUNE
Mountcastle, Sisco, Willams will all be up in June
Akin could be replacing Hess soon if Hess doesn't improve
Stewart could be a platoon DH and 4th outfielder if he continues his hot streak through May
Rickard, Straily, and Nunez could be the next DFA
Wynns could be optioned soon to make room for Sisco and have a Sisco/Severino platoon behind the plate
Our bullpen of Givens, Fry, Castro, Ynoa, and Kline looks good Yacabonis not so much
I would give Santander more AAA ab but bring him up around the all-star break
You can’t bring up 5 hitters unless you jettison alberto, Rickard, Nunez, Wynns and Wilkerson. And if we did that we’d have no utility infielders. Thats way too drastic. We definitely can’t shorten our bullpen for more positional players. When Hess , Bundy or Straily take the mound it might only last 3-4 innings.
I disagree as well...tweaks are never major. Methinks Sisco will spend the majority of the year at Norfolk, unless his defense improves quite a bit. I do see Nunez as the next player sent packing, but not until they give him more time to break out of his slump.
I agree that the roster could look very different in June, Zanti. I could see some of those moves, but probably not all, happening over the next few weeks.
Unless someone waves a magic wand over Cisco and grants him some defensive skills over the next few weeks, no way he’s promoted in June. Nor should he be.
D first at C.
First of all if Sisco continues ripping the cover off the ball you have to bring him up. Let him rotate with Serverino behind the plate and DH. Why do you say give Mountcastle more time to learn first base when Davis his there for three and 3/4 more years. Mountcastle is young to DH but that’s his position for now so bring him up. Nunez, Straily and Rickard should all be at Norfolk or DFA. No one mentions Martin. He plain out cannot hit ML hitting at this point of his career. We got a guy at Bowie now Mason McCoy who is ripping the ball. He could be a future SS. I would play Vilar at SS the rest of the season and rotate Wilkerson and Alberto at second. I feel Martin is another failed rule 5 guy. There is a reason as a number one draft pick Oakland let him go.
I don't think the O's would bring up Mountcastle to exclusively DH. They'd probably give at least some starts at 1B, with Davis either DH'ing or on the bench. Mountcastle is most likely the first baseman of the future as Davis becomes more of a part-time player or loses his roster spot in the coming years (not that he's playing like someone who should lose his roster spot).
I'm not sold on McCoy, who had a somewhat pedestrian season at the plate last year (.701 OPS at Delmarva). But he's certainly opening eyes this year, you're right. Actually, McCoy's career path so far is pretty similar to -- wait for it -- Richie Martin. Martin had a breakout year offensively at Double-A last year after being fairly nondescript before that.
Cisco doesn’t receive the ball well, doesn’t frame strikes well, and is a disaster at throwing out runners.
I don’t see how he fits a defense first mindset for a team that is not built to contend. He spent April hitting like he was facing major league pitching — which he was not.
Now he has a streak of ten or so nice games and everyone wants to promote him?
I say nope. Do it for longer, and fix that D. Cisco is right where he needs to be. Part time catching while whiffing more than Davis is not the way to continue his development.
Oakland didn’t “let him go.” Give the kid a chance.
Plus if Hays stays healthy I fully expect him to be playing centerfield by the all star break. If Mason Williams can field bring him up tomorrow as Wilkerson is a infielder. Mullins besides everything you mentioned has too weak a arm for a CF. He reminds me of a Oriole prospect of a few years ago who’s name I can’t remember who never made it. 5 ft 9 in outfielders are a thing of the past. I would like to see Steward given a chance but honestly I don’t know where to play him now. I do like Santlander athletic ability and arm and his one game here he hit a homer
MULLINS: I believe in him still, at least from the left side. I really want him to have a chance but I would like to see him go on a 3-4 week tear first and take that back up with him. Hopefully by mid June.
WILLIAMS: Nope. Obviously Wilkerson is not a CF but he is there to get ABs. Plus the more he plays there the better he will be when it comes time to be a super sub. Let him play until he fails with the bat and field or until Mullins or Hayes is ready. Wilkerson playing now has purpose.
MOUNTCASTLE: Only 22 and no need with the log jam we have at 1B/DH.. I would wait at least until May 1ish next year (service time) and that is if he is still crushing the ball.
SISCO: I really dislike him as a C. I actually believe he will hit though. For me only two choices: trade him to a team that values C defense not as much as us and for someone to our liking or I am very curious how good he could play 3B.
STEWART: He is the one I would bring up now. I really believe he could be a high energy .850 OPS guy. Play some OF/DH some. DFA Nunez. At best Nunez is a mistake hitter with offensive and defensive limitations.
SANTANDER: I have always liked him but I think he needs to show he can dominate AAA to me.
HAYES: By Aug 1 he will be in CF or RF for the Os. Future star.
Watching every game nightly, what does Wynn’s bring to this team? I personally thought Sucre did a better job on both sides of the ball... He did get a hit or 2 every few games. Wynn’s DOESN’T seem to be able hit at all and has allowed some balls to get passed him
Wynns has only had 17 at-bats this year. I’m not ready to pass judgement on him yet.
Fans have a short memory. Nunez has sucked recently so everyone thinks he is a nobody. However, he was a good prospect and now is the time to see if he can figure some things out and become consistent.
Rickard is a different case. He was never heralded and has never produced with the stick. DFA Rickard and see what Mason Williams can do. He couldn’t possibly be much worse than Joey. If he makes us worse, who cares? If he makes us better, rising tides lift all ships.
Is there really a future for Mountcastle in the field? If Nunez continues to struggle, why not bring Ryan up to be the every day DH.
So the noose around the Orioles neck Chris Davis is now holding up 2 prospects. dj Stewart should be up and playing a corner spot with Marcini moving to 1st and he's holding up mountcastle who could come up instead of Stewart and slide right into 1st.