Orioles face a dilemma when it comes to Jonathan Villar

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• Hi Rich. Jim Johnson is the perfect analog. His statistics superficially seemed very good, until one really dwelled on blown save percentage. Jamile Weeks wound up being what the market bore. Ditto Villar. Elias will not want to go to arbitration, so will take what he can get, which will not be much. IMO.

• Villar is an enigma inside an enigma. An offensive force. I fear that he can turn his energy/desire on and off too easily. He's playing for a decent contract/extension. Why a little return for him on the open market? Is there a part of his game that "backs" people off? His over aggression/carelessness? He along with Nunez are the hardest to figure for the 2020 roster. He's too good to just give away.

  • Can’t stand the VR. His attitude bothers me, and I am just a fan sitting near the field watching him carefully. I do not know what he is or is not inside the clubhouse. But his teams have never won. Get what you can get, trade him.

• Villar has put up very good number offensively but seems to have a detachment from the game at times for lack of a better word. He can be streaky enough to help carry a team at times but is vulnerable with his defense and base running from what I have seen.And that is to such an extent it makes him look like a liability. Thus if as you stated in most your scenarios he won’t get much of a return they may as well hang on to him (though I would still pursue a trade with a value return) as long as possible. No way will they pay him much more.It does not look like the team wants to spend money at this time and with players still developing or a reluctance to bring up guys close to being ready they have a lot of work ahead of themselves. That is if they want to field a competitive team (to a point ) if nothing else than to appease the fans somewhat.I think as a whole us fans are a little optimistic for the coming year and would hate to see any significant regression take place next year.They keep picking up pitchers off the pile as I speak so it makes me think next year will be a repeat of this years strategy and we can only hope they find something that works out.

  • I think the Orioles need to trade Villar if they can get something that will help the rebuild, otherwise let him play out his contract. Next year will be another season of 95-100 plus games. There is ZERO optimism or thinking we need to field a competitive team from a wins/losses perspective. 2020 is once again about developing the future period. This is a total rebuild. The difference between losing 100 games and say 90 games is a lower draft pick. I want to see the younger players like Sisco, Stewart, Santander, etc get better. Are these guys legit MLB starters or not.

• Cutting Villar to save 7 mil would be the very definition of tanking. Seriously, we are talking about 7 mil for a Shortstop, not Machado money. That's fair market value for a guy who was one of three actual Major League caliber players on the whole team. I just can't understand why fans are supportive of the notion of cutting a guy like that, when there is noone to backfill the position, all to save a few bucks. Is the 7 mil saved going to cause a ticket price reduction? Will they drop the cost of beer at the stadium? Free parking? No. You get an even lousier product to watch for your money, and the organization pockets more.

  I know people will say "well they are gonna lose anyway, what good is keeping him". By that same logic, what good is cutting him? Draft position? Elias has gotten a 1/1 and now a 1/2. If he's that damn good, he can find guys at 5, 7, 9th overall going forward. Hell, Kershaw went 7th, Trout went 25th for Christ's sake.

  • Bancells... I hear what your saying, but this team will lose over 90 games with or without Villar. Why does it matter? Also there can be a huge difference from having the #1 pick and a top 10 pick. This past draft is a possible example. I want to win as bad as anyone, but the idea about putting a better product on the field is strange to me. Watching the future players is exciting. 90 plus losing season is a poor product period. If we are going to go through this rebuild let's do it all the way!

    • You "want to win as bad as anyone"? Really?

      Read back what you wrote .... then read what BanMo wrote ... and tell then me again that "you want to win as bad as anyone".

      Horsefeathers. What you're really saying is "I don't mind losing as much as anyone".

      • Horsefeathers? I want to win the World Series period.. Whatever is needed to accomplish that goal is what I want. Do I feel any better that the Orioles lost 7 less games? No! My point is go all the way to fix the issues so the team can contend for a long period of time. This years' success was the players who made big strides in the minors and people like Hunter Harvey and Austin Hayes showing promise, not Villar had a great season. That will be the same for 2020, whether someone like Villar has a great season or not has no baring.

        • But in the meantime .. you don't mind losing do you? All for a high draft pick.

          Ask yourself, "Do I feel better about the O's winning 7 more games"? No? Well I know I do.. Evidently, I want to win more badly than you do.

          "Fixing the issues to win in the long run" has absolutely NOTHING to do with keeping a player such a Villar or any other major talent on the team until such time as a better player comes along to replace him. And yeah, Villar has a WAR of 4.0 If you believe such bullwash, that means the O's would win 4 more games with him ... does it not? "What's the point" you ask. The point is 4 more wins.

          It's all about the draft pick. Is this the new "Oriole Way? For shame if it is.

    • BanMo ... I'm with you 100% on this one. 7 Million is chump change in today's MLB economy. The people that wouldn't sign the "40th best" baseball player in the league according to WAR (yeah right) to an 7million dollar contract, are the same people that bemoaned signing Trumbo to a 3 year- 12 million per contract after he had just hit 47 homers for Bal'more.

      • At least they dodged a bullet on giving Nelson Cruz that extra year...

        • :)

    • Deqalt, yes, they are probably going to lose 90 games. But they are also probably going to win at least 60. Thus, in my O's fan foolishness, I will follow the team like I always do. So it would be nice to watch at least one Major League level player not named Mancini. I would have no problem with moving on from Villar if there was an actual big leaguer to play short. But subjecting me to watching Rule Five .200 hitters or AAAA nobodies so John and Lou Angelos can save a few shekels is a bridge too far.

      • I get that for sure. I only said to trade away Villar if it helps the future, otherwise let him go play ! I am hoping that we see several major league level players in Sisco, Hays, and Santander!!!!

        • Trading him is another matter. If they trade him for a good return it is what it is. But I don't think you are getting much due to his not being a plus defender, and 30 dingers from a middle infielder isn't nearly as sexy as it was 10 years ago. Hang onto him until next July, see what you can get, and then take a peek at one of the young bucks. You get a prospect or two, I'll stomach it, though if its a couple 16 year old Dominicans I'll be pretty pissed. I'm talking about cutting him loose in a naked display of cheapness. I can't for the life of me understand why baseball fans are advocating this profit and loss sheet bulls**t.

          I would also like to note I intend to shout 'HORSE FEATHERS" at everyone I disagree with for the rest of the week.

        • BanMo ... I never shout.

  • I definitely think we should keep Villar. Bottom line, we are a better team with him on the field, and we don’t have anyone in the minors ready to take his place.

    • A voice of reason.

  • BanMo, Boog never shouts, ask his #1 fan...lmao...go O’s...

    • Like I said before. Anytime, anyplace try me punk!

  • Testy Brady...go O’s...

    • He's baaaaacccck!

• I think there may be a lot of unrest with the fans if the Orioles follow in the footsteps of the Astros rebuild. We have this season as the first hundred loss of the rebuild. Houston lost MORE games in year two. I've already seen people posting that the Orioles should contend for a playoff spot in 2021. That's beyond optimistic, especially for the AL East. Year four marked a wild card appearance for the Astros, yet they lost more games the next season and didn't qualify for the playoffs. Elias isn't afraid to make a trade for very young, unproven talent. Don't be surprised if most of your favorite players are gone before the Orioles sniff their next postseason. Duquette didn't believe in moving someone at their peak value, but don't expect Elias to be of the same mindset.

• If the goal is to field a competitive team in 2021-2022, then I would consider signing Villar to a 3 year extension ... but if he is just going to be here for 2020, and then gone, it probably makes sense to save the $$ and cut Villar loose now.

• OK I am somewhat confused. WE will get rid of a player because he expects 7 million, are we that broke? Villar is not the reincarnation of Derek Jeter but he is exciting to watch when compared to some of the plugs we trot out. I could care less about the strategy of rebuilding, I want to enjoy the occasional win even if it means picking 7th or eighth. Draft picks are a crap shoot at best so lets not rid ourselves of everyone who might let us win a game

• Horsefeathers I'll take a couple 16 years olds! Villar is not Jeter

  • You completely missed the point but whatever

• The Orioles have 13.5 million from Trumbo's contract to cover the lions share of the 7 arbitration eligible players. As noted whether they go this route is unclear. I do think it is unlikely that they non-tender Villar,. They can sign him then trade him later if they get a fair return. If not he will finish the season here - like this year.

• A few observations regarding Villar. The Orioles this year spent over 40 million dollars on 3 players (Davis, Trumbo, and Cobb) who contributed little or no value. Not Trumbo or Cobb’s fault as they were injured, but still an awful lot of money to spend for little return. Those 3 also cost over 40 million last year. That’s 80 million with little or no return. Over the next 2 years Davis and Cobb are guaranteed over 60 million. So over years you are looking at 140 million dollars for very little return. Attendance has dropped over 700,000 in 2 years and is barely half of what it was in 2014. Eventually, the Orioles will have to settle the MASN dispute. So 7 million may seem like pocket change, but if you look at what the Orioles have committed and still have to commit, they will have to cut spending in areas they can control. They don’t have to pay Villar, they have to pay Davis and Cobb. Elias inherited those contracts and has to work around them.

• There was more testiness in this exchange of comments than I have ever seen on this site. Maybe we're stressed out from a very frustrating season and the prospect of at least a couple more; that comes with the territory of being O's fans who remember the glory days. On a lighter note, I am curious as to where Chris Davis ranks on FanGraphs list of best MLB players. I also wonder if Baltimore has the most players in the bottom 10 percentile. Rich, are these rankings available on-line?

  • Horse feathers I say! No testiness here, only emphasis. Dumping your second best player in order to save money after making your customers sit through two completely atrocious seasons isn't good business. Like I've said before, in what other enterprise can you totally blow off your market for several years. Could Heavy Seas Brewing sell flat, watered down garbage for 3 years while saying "keep drinking it, it might actually be beer in 2022. Oh by the way, that one flavor you liked cost too much so we got rid of it "?

    • Let me answer your question "in what other enterprise can you totally blow off your market for several years.?" Living outside of Washington D.C., I can assure you that the Redskins, under the ownership of one Danny Snyder, have done just that. Another proud franchise ruined by a grossly incompetent, self-loving owner. Attendance would have declined even further but for the fact that at many home games, fans rooting for, and dressed in the colors of, the visiting teams turn out by the thousands. Skins tickets are now being discounted on Groupon! That the two teams I root the most for are cursed by the horrific presence of papa Angelos and Snyder may be some kind of cosmic punishment of myself. I accept a small responsibility for the teams' poor performances.

    • 2nd best player? He may be our best ... afterall ... according to his "WAR" .. he's the 40th best baseball player on the planet.

  • Professor Cohen, FanGraphs rankings are available online. They only rank batters who have enough plate appearances to q
    The only Orioles on the list are Villar (40), Mancini (48), Hanser Alberto (91) and Renato Nunez (121). There are no pitchers
    on the list because none reached 162 innings, though Dylan Bundy missed by a third of an inning and John Means by seven.

• I am sure it is a real dilemma for Elias. Should he sign a real major league player or should he sign 10 more Sulsers. Of course, we already have 10+ Sulsers which is why we lost 108 games. But I'm sure the rebuild will start soon, like a year or two or three, etc etc etc.

  • What's a Sulser?

    • A Sulser is the O's latest waiver-wire-wonder. Drafted in 25th round, seven innings pitched in MLB (with a 0.00 era). Most notably, once played for the Mahoning Valley Scrappers.
      Rich: Any idea how many "players" the O's claimed on waivers this year? Must be a record, if such records are kept. Especially for pitchers.
      This dependency on cast-offs from other teams demonstrates the incredible dearth of major league-ready talent in the system and near absence of good free agents. You don't have to tank in this situation: 100-plus losses come with the territory.
      Wait 'til next year. No, wait until at least 2022.

      • Professor Cohen, unofficially I count 10 players from the start of spring training who played on the team:
        Pedro Severino, Hanser Alberto, Ty Blach, Chandler Shepherd, Ryan Eades, Tayler Scott, Shawn Armstrong, Aaron Brooks, Keon Broxton and Jose Rondon.
        I'll bet the Seattle Mariners, who used 67 players had more, but 10 is a lot.

  • Boog (or should I say Ken), an Alka Sulser is what I had to drink 108 times this year. Hoping the rest of my box of 200 will get me through next season.

    • This appears to be a commentary thread that will not end!

• All in good fun!!!! 90 losses or 100 losses is all flat beer!!!! I am not a believer in this tanking and why anyone would give money to support it is beyond me. Put a winner on the field now, don't wait 4 years

• This is easy. Trade him for whatever you can get. No one wanted him at the deadline because he wasn't very good the first half of the year. If he reverts to that this team shouldn't be the one paying him what he'll earn. Best of luck to him though

• I question the idea that the Orioles were somehow “tanking “ this year. If they were tanking, why claim Severino on waivers? They easily could have lost 108 games with Sisco and Wynns behind the plate. Rio Ruiz? Could have stuck Nunez over there and he could have led the league in errors. Why did they trade for Dwight Smith Jr, when Joey Ricard and Stevie Wilkerson could just be as unproductive. Why did they claim so many pitchers? The ones that were already here certainly were ineffective. Why did they keep putting Hanser Alberto in the lineup when he was hitting over.300? Better to bench him and let Richie Martin hit .200. And Chris Davis only played 105 games this year. Think of how many games he could have helped us lose if , we had put in the other 57. All sarcasm aside, the Orioles tried to win this year. Elias could have stood pat, and went with what he had, but he did try to improve the team marginally. If the Orioles were actually tanking, they could have done it easier

  • Exactly. There are several other moves that the team wouldn’t have made if they were trying lose games. Why did we send Mullins down? Why did we sign Broxton and then cut him? Straily could’ve been sent out every 5th day with his 9+ ERA. The tanking conspiracy is right up there with a flat earth.

  • Not putting your best team on the field after spring training is one tell. And how's about trading your most accomplished starter to Red Sox for a couple of 16 year olds from the island?

  • Hays and Santander had never played at AAA before, so they wanted them to have some success there before bringing them up. They did bring up Santander and would have brought up Hays earlier, but he kept getting hurt. Sisco still needs to work on his defense. My point is if you were deliberately losing, you would have gone north with Cisco and Wynns, and wouldn’t have bothered claiming Severino on waivers. As for Cashner, would it have made sense to keep him here for 2 months and then lose him as a free agent and get nothing in return! Whether the players they received from the Red Sox ever make it, Cashner was gone after this season. All teams that are out of contention move pending free agents at the trade deadline.

  • Sorry Boog, your points here are weak. Spring training?!? Please enlighten us and tell me what you would’ve done differently this season as GM, that would support the rebuild and wouldn’t be seen as tanking (other than cutting Davis).

  • Ya know guys .. if spring training didn't mean anything, Lou Brown would never have kept Pedro Cerano, Willie Mays Hays and the Wild Thing on the roster. Scary to even think how that would have changed history 'eh?

    You're all right. How can the way Elias has handled year one possibly be considered tanking? Just think, he's responsible for signing Ruiz and Severino. A couple of future HOF'ers if I ever saw one? What was I thinking? And he fell into that Alberto find didn't he? Other than Hanser...did Mike add ONE player to the squad that made a positive difference? And why didn't he cut Crush if he has the power to make any call he likes? Cashner? Just because he traded one of the only 2 major league pitchers on the squad for a couple of cabana boys? Baseball genius that I guess is too complex for a mental midget such as myself to comprehend. You're right guys ... what was I thinking? Elias tanking? It's almost laughable to think that now.

    OK boys ... I know I've moaned all season long about tanking to the point of nausea. I'm sorry .. I'm done with it. I apologize. No more bitchin' about the Tank Job. Onward and upward. I'll start drinking the Orange Kool Aid as of this moment. If you had been reading this site since it's inception, you'd know I'm really a positive, glass half full kind of Orioles fan. Really I am.

    The season is over and hopefully Mr. Elias' strategy will show signs of improvement. I like what he's doing. I believe he's got us on the right path.

    BESIDES IT's FOOTBALL SEASON!! Follow me to dallasfootball.com and blog with me there!

    Go Cowboys!!

  • As an expansion team in 1960, the Dallas Cowboys went 0-11-1. It took them until 1965 to have a .500 record. The next year they made the playoffs for the first time. How did they do it? They built the team through the draft and smart trades. In other words, they were patient. They did not go for short term fixes that mortgaged the future. Then they fell on hard times in the late 1980’s they brought in Jimmy Johnson and he drafted Aikman, Irwin, and Smith. They went 1-15 in 1989, but 3 years later they won the Super Bowl. Both times, the Cowboys built from the ground up. That’s what the Orioles are trying to do now. It may take a few years, but the goal is long term sustainability. The early Cowboys took their lumps, but they had 19 winning seasons from 1966-84. Hopefully, the Orioles can have similar success. The key is patience

    • Very clever. But it's not baseball. And it was Irvin .. not Irwin that was drafted BEFORE Jimmy and Jerry were on the scene. He was Texs' and Landry's pick. Jimmy Johnson inherited him. But I'll give you an A- on trying to educate me on Americas Team history. All in all, not a bad effort there big fella. Is the DAL on your name a reference to Dallas?

      BTW .. it's pretty easy to build through the draft when you have the Vikings as a patsy.

      If you wanted to make a case for patiently building through the draft .. the modern day Cowboys would have been a much better example.

  • Boog, I’ll ask again, other than cut CD, what would you have done this year as GM to improve the team without giving the appearance of tanking?

    • My golly what don't you understand? I've answered that question all summer long ... over and over again .. like I said .. ad nauseum. So...I'll type slowing this time as not to lose anybody.

      I would have put my best players on the field from jump. Hays, Santander and Sisco. Period. Does that answer your question?

      And duh .. yeah ... I know, I know....they still would've stunk. But at least he could say that the best players we had were representing. And please don't give me the 'he needs to dominate at the lower levels' argument again. I read the same stuff from Elias as you guys do. Tell me how many years Juan Soto dominated AAA? How's about our boy Manny? How many games at Norfolk did he dominate? What about Mike Trout? COMBINED these player played ZERO games at AAA. But I guess Mr. Elias method is what's best right guys? The whole "dominate the lower levels" argument is the Elias spin that ya'll have bit on. Stop regurgitating it .. please? I don't have to buy it.

      And BTW ... wasn't there a big stink the past 2 springs about how late and cheaply free agents were being signed? Uh...I'm not saying the O's needed to get into that ..... buuuuuuttttt ... if they wanted to, they certainly could've signed somebody better than Rio Ruiz.

      T-T-T-TANK JOB ALL THE WAY THIS YEAR. It's like pornography, maybe I can't define it, but I know it when I see it.

  • Didn’t Dallas make a great trade, like 12-1 involving Walker, that really helped them going forward...sorry not baseball, but trade related...go O’s....

    • Yes. That's what I was referring to with "having the Vikings as a patsy" ... they ended up with 13 players via that trade. At least ½ dozen were via the draft. Don't know the actual numbers. It set them up for 3 super bowls. And the Vikings floundered. In the end, Herschel came back to the Cowboys later in the decade.

  • Thanks, missed that, thought it was the saints, thx again for clarifying...go O’s...

• No dilemma for me, keep Villar!

• Rich - maybe you can clarify for me (and perhaps others) what I think is the point of NOT spending 7-10 million on Villar. That the money saved can be used to put further investment in the training facilities here and abroad, analytics equipment, additional personnel and/or coaches to work with player development.

  • Cedar, I don't know what the Orioles would do with the money saved if they don't sign Villar, but I think your assumption isn't a bad one.

• First, a comment on something concrete. The O's have just signed a pitcher whose main claim to fame is having attended Dartmouth College. On second thought, I guess I really don't know what to say. The discussion on Villar is more hypothetical to me, based on "what it" situations. Opinions vary. Mine is that there is no upside to shedding Villar, and there is no downside to keeping him. The O's don't get offers for him because teams know that, sooner or later, the O's will give him away. Some time in the process, the O's will forget they are trying to gain something and focus all their attention on what is the least bad way to get rid of the player.

• Time will tell. Cutting staff and avoiding long term contracts is consistent with a business preparing itself to be sold.

  • Tru dat.