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With just over a quarter of the season left, BaseballReference.com calculates that the Orioles have a 98.7 percent chance of making the postseason and an 8.7 percent chance of winning the World Series. FanGraphs’ figures are nearly identical, 98.6 percent chance of making the postseason and a 9.5 percent chance of winning the World Series.
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The Orioles’ odds are better than other good teams in baseball: Cleveland, Milwaukee and San Diego, and not quite as good as those of the Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers, all of whom have records about the same as the Orioles.
It’s clear that there aren’t any elite teams in Major League Baseball, but a lot of good, but flawed ones.
The Orioles’ flaws were on display Sunday in St. Petersburg, Florida when they couldn’t manage more than a run against the Tampa Bay Rays, and their bullpen allowed two late runs.
Every game is critical, and manager Brandon Hyde’s decisions of the past week — pinch-hitting raw rookie Coby Mayo for a possible Rookie of the Year winner, Colton Cowser, in the eighth inning last Tuesday and pulling Albert Suárez after 6 2/3 scoreless innings on Sunday, drew intense scrutiny.
In 2022 and 2023, Hyde’s handling of the bullpen drew praise. This year, not so much.
In their unexpected second-half chase for a playoff spot in 2022 and for most of last season, Hyde had a benefit he doesn’t have now, the use of Félix Bautista as closer.
Bautista didn’t pitch in September last season and had Tommy John surgery in October. He’s supposed to start throwing off a mound in Sarasota this week, but executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias reiterated on Saturday that Bautista wouldn’t pitch until 2025.
To replace Bautista for this season, the Orioles signed veteran Craig Kimbrel, who’s likely on his way to the Hall of Fame, but his recent appearances haven’t been good.
For that matter, the entire bullpen hasn’t been as good as it was in 2022 or 2023. While fans have rightly focused on the season-ending elbow injuries to Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells, and last week’s right lat/teres major injury to a fourth starter, Grayson Rodriguez, the starters still have an ERA of 3.77.
Corbin Burnes’ 2.71 ERA has been the major contributing factor to the starter’s performance, but the bullpen has a 4.08 ERA, more than a half-run higher than last year’s 3.55.
It was hoped that Kimbrel, who had four rough outings in late April and early May and then two months of terrific performances, would stabilize the bullpen.
In eight appearances since the All-Star break, Kimbrel has a 5.87 ERA, and he hasn’t had a save since July 7th nor even a save opportunity since July 25th when he allowed three runs, one earned at Miami.
On Sunday, he walked three batters, one intentionally, and was victimized by a costly double steal. In Kimbrel’s appearances, runners have stolen 11 bases in 12 attempts.
Elias sought help for both the starting rotation and the bullpen at the trade deadline. He found two starters, Zach Eflin, who’s won all three of his starts, and Trevor Rogers, who’s starting for the third time against Washington on Tuesday night.
He acquired two relievers from Philadelphia — right-hander Seranthony Dominguez and left-hander Gregory Soto.
Since Kimbrel last had a save, the Orioles have had just four, two by Yennier Cano, one by Cionel Pérez and one by Dominguez on Saturday.
Dominguez has been excellent since his July 26th acquisition, allowing a run on four hits in eight innings for a 1.13 ERA, nine strikeouts and two walks.
He wasn’t available on Sunday after throwing in the Orioles’ wins on Friday and Saturday against the Rays.
Soto hasn’t been good. In his four appearances, the two-time All-Star has allowed eight runs on nine hits in 2 1/3 innings for a frightful 30.86 ERA.
With Kimbrel and Soto struggling, the Orioles suffered another loss last week when Jacob Webb went on the 15-day injured list with an inflamed right elbow.
Webb, a waiver wire pickup last August, was one of Hyde’s go-to guys. He led the team in appearances when he went on the injured list. Elias said the injury wasn’t serious and Webb’s elbow was “barking” and simply needed rest. He’s eligible to return on August 19th.
Danny Coulombe, who was in St. Petersburg this weekend, has been the biggest loss for the bullpen. Coulombe had a 2.42 ERA, a team-leading WHIP of 0.615 and didn’t allow any of his 12 inherited baserunners to score when he went on the IL in June.
Elias said he hoped Coulombe, who had surgery to remove bone chips, could return in late September.
Cano, with a 2.93 ERA and five saves, hasn’t been nearly as effective as he was as a rookie All-Star last season, but, along with Dominguez, he’s been among the best relievers.
Perhaps Hyde will use Keegan Akin in some more important roles. Akin, who briefly was optioned to Triple-A Norfolk, has a 3.57 ERA but has struck out more than four times as many as he’s walked.
Pérez, who had a 2.35 ERA in last season’s second half, has a 6.75 ERA in 11 outings in the second half. He’s been able to avoid allowing home runs. He hasn’t given one up since May 31st, 2023.
He could also turn to Burch Smith. The Orioles are the seventh major league team he’s pitched for, and in the previous two seasons, worked in Japan and South Korea.
Smith has a 2.84 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings.
With the trade deadline past, the Orioles could try to claim another reliever off waivers or bring one up from Norfolk.
The Orioles have major league veterans Dillon Tate and Bruce Zimmermann, who’s recently been working in the bullpen at Norfolk. They also added relievers Nick Avila and Collin Selby, both of whom have major league experience, to the 40-man roster.
Avila was claimed off release waivers from San Francisco nearly two months ago and recently has been rehabbing from a right shoulder impingement at High-A Aberdeen.
Selby was purchased from Kansas City on July 11th and has a 3.24 ERA and four saves in eight games for Norfolk.
The final 43 games will be quite a test for the Orioles. They’ve been terrific at finding pieces to help. Suárez has been invaluable, and it appears that Dominguez is currently the closer. Perhaps Kimbrel can again regain his mastery, as he did in May. They can certainly use it.