Some early offseason questions for the Orioles
The Orioles have 15 games remaining, and a postseason berth still to be secured. Whether the Orioles have a sustained postseason run or not, whether they repeat as the American League East champions or they qualify as a wild card, the 2025 Orioles are likely to look much different than the 2024 version.
There will be many questions to be answered after the final Orioles game of 2024, and it’s never too early for some speculation.
Will the Orioles be aggressive players in the free agent market? The Orioles have two top-tier free agents, their No. 1 starter Corbin Burnes and their leading home run hitter, Anthony Santander.
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Both are likely to command huge money. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic speculated that Burnes could receive more than $200 million in his next contract, and the guess here is that Santander could exceed $100 million.
It seems unlikely that the Orioles will pursue Burnes or Santander at those prices in free agency. They’ll likely receive qualifying offers, and once they turn down those one-year, $21.2 million deals, the Orioles will receive draft choices as compensation when Burnes and Santander sign with new clubs.
While I don’t expect the Orioles to make those mega offers, I think they’ll pursue mid-range free agents. Under executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias, the Orioles have yet to sign a free agent to a multiyear contract. That should change this offseason.
New owner David Rubenstein has allowed the payroll to rise to $108.4 million, 22nd highest in baseball, and it could go higher.
Which 2024 Orioles will be back, and which won’t? The young core of the club: infielders Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg, outfielder Colton Cowser, catcher Adley Rutschman and starting pitchers Dean Kremer and Grayson Rodriguez, relievers Yennier Cano and Cionel Pérez should all be back.
Zach Eflin, who was acquired just ahead of the trade deadline has another year left on his contract, and it’s a cinch that veteran Albert Suárez will be back, too.
Félix Bautista should return from Tommy John surgery at the beginning of 2025, and the Orioles should pick up left-hander Danny Coulombe’s $4 million option for next season.
It’s extremely unlikely that the Orioles will renew closer Craig Kimbrel’s $13 million option for next year or designated hitter Eloy Jimenez’s $16.5 million option for 2025.
Tougher decisions loom on current closer Seranthony Domínguez, who has an $8 million option for next year and first baseman Ryan O’Hearn, whose option for 2025 is $7.5 million.
What will the Orioles do about James McCann? The Orioles backup catcher is in the final year of a four-year, $40.6 million contract he signed with the New York Mets.
The Mets have paid $19 million of the $24.3 million McCann has earned the past two seasons, and at 34, he’s not in line to receive anything close to that on the open market.
Samuel Basallo, the Orioles top prospect, who’s at Triple-A Norfolk, isn’t ready for the big leagues, and it seems unlikely that the Orioles will find a better veteran backup to Rutschman.
Hopefully, McCann and the Orioles will find a way for him to return in 2025.
What about the players eligible for arbitration? Last year, there were plenty of predictions that the Orioles wouldn’t offer arbitration to some of their 17 players eligible for it. I was shocked when they decided to offer arbitration to all 17.
This year, they could have 19. Starters Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells had season-ending elbow injuries and should be back late in the 2025 season.
Others, Kremer, Pérez and Rutschman are positives. Relievers Keegan Akin, Matt Bowman and Jacob Webb seem likely to return.
Others like relievers Nick Anderson, who’s on a minor league contract and Bryan Baker seem questionable, and corner infielder Emmanuel Rivera has made a decent case that he should return next year.
There are interesting questions about the remaining free agents. Earlier this season, centerfielder Cedric Mullins seemed to be a candidate for nontender or a trade, but he’s played very well in the second half.
Mullins, who’s made $6.33 million this year now seems a good bet to return, especially since other than Cowser, the Orioles don’t have a starting outfielder penciled in, assuming Santander departs.
There aren’t any major league ready outfielders at Norfolk, and keeping Mullins for another year seems to be a solid move.
Nor is there a major league ready first baseman at Norfolk, so Ryan Mountcastle, whose 2024 salary was $4.14 million this year, should be back this year, though he’s missed significant portions of the last two seasons.
Infielder Ramón Urías has proven his value, and while he’ll get a raise from his $2.1 million salary this season, the Orioles should keep him around since they don’t have anyone else who can play all four infield positions.
Tougher cases loom with swingman left-hander Cole Irvin, infielder Jorge Mateo, right-hander Trevor Rogers and reliever Gregory Soto.
Irvin can fill in as a spot starter or longman, but the Orioles may decide that a raise from his $2 million agreement for this year isn’t warranted. Mateo, who agreed to a $2.7 million deal for this year is projected to return from Tommy John surgery in time for next season, and the Orioles may believe they have enough infielders without him.
Rogers was acquired from Miami for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers at the trade deadline. Part of his attraction was having two seasons of club control beyond this one. Despite his poor initial performance with the Orioles, it seems unlikely that they won’t bring him back for 2025.
Soto has pitched well lately, and they could use the remaining weeks of his season to decide if he’s worth a raise on his $5 million salary for 2025.
What’s going on in the minor leagues? In his fourth rehab assignment, Jacob Webb allowed a hit and struck out a batter for Norfolk in its 2-1 win over Durham.
Webb, who’s on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation, threw 22 pitches.
Travor Rogers (1-2) allowed four hits in six shutout innings, striking out seven and walking two.
In his third rehab game for Double-A Bowie, Heston Kjerstad was 1-for-4 ith an RBI in Bowie’s 2-1 win over Erie. Kjerstad is on the 10-day injured list with a concussion.