Reviewing Orioles’ arbitration candidates

Mike Elias knows he has a busy offseason ahead of him. One subject that the Orioles’ executive vice president/general manager wasn’t asked about during Thursday’s wide-ranging season-ending press conference was the large number of players eligible for arbitration.

A year ago, the guess here was that the Orioles wouldn’t be offering arbitration to each of the 17 players eligible. Surprisingly, they did. This year, 15 Orioles, the most of any major league team, are arbitration-eligible, and I’ll again guess that not all of them will be offered contracts.

Let’s take a look the class:

No-brainers

Adley Rutschman is eligible for arbitration for the first time, and while he had a disappointing second half, the All-Star catcher did have a 3.4 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), down almost a point from the 4.3 he had in 2023.

For the full season, Rutschman hit .250 with 19 home runs and 79 RBIs and a .709 OPS. His OPS was a full 100 points below his .809 in 2023 and he threw out  a career-low 19 percent of baserunners.

We’ll be returning to Rutschman often in the weeks to come. MLBTradeRumors.com projects he’ll get a $5.8 million salary for 2025.

In the first half of 2024, Cedric Mullins struggled and it seemed likely the Orioles would part ways with him after the season. While Mullins’ full season totals of .234 with a .710 OPS, 18 home runs and 54 RBIs aren’t all that impressive, he perked up and in the second half, hit .266 with nine home runs and 23 RBIs and an .831 OPS.

Mullins stole 32 bases in 38 attempts and was 3-for-7 with a home run in the Wild Card Series.

He’s a year away from free agency, but with the looming departure of rightfielder Anthony Santander, the Orioles seem sure to offer him arbitration. His projection salary for 2025 is $8.7 million, a healthy raise from this year’s $6.325 million.

Dean Kremer is an important part of the Orioles’ starting rotation. Assuming Corbin Burnes signs elsewhere, he’d likely slot in as the team’s third starter behind Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez.

Kremer, who missed six weeks with a triceps injury, was 8-10 with a 4.10 ERA  but was especially strong in September with a 2.25 ERA in four starts.

He was in line to start Game 3 of the Wild Card.

He’s projected to earn $3.5 million in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Ryan Mountcastle hit .271 in the season’s first half and .271 in the second half. But, after the All-Star break, Mountcastle’s power disappeared and he missed a month with a sprained left wrist.

He hit only one home run post All-Star break, on July 29^th, and drove in 20 runs. His OPS dropped from .759 in the first half to .666 in the second half.

The Orioles badly missed his skills at first base while he was out, and his WAR was a career-high 2.6. He could be a Gold Glove finalist at first, and while his power numbers have been disappointing, it seems certain the Orioles will offer him a contract for 2025.

In his second year of arbitration, he’s predicted to make $6.6 million in 2025, up from $4,137,500 in 2024.

Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells both had season-ending elbow surgery in June. Bradish had Tommy John while Wells, who had Tommy John surgery before being drafted by the Orioles, had an internal brace procedure.

The Orioles hope both will pitch sometime in 2025 and they’re projected to have $2.1 million salaries next year.

Orioles should sign

Keegan Akin had a quietly effective 2024, with a 3-1 record and a 3.22 ERA and a save in 66 games. The left-hander struck out 97 in 78 2/3 innings while allowing just 6.3 hits per nine innings.

Akin signed ahead of arbitration for $825,000 last year and should make $1.4 million in 2025.

Emmanuel Rivera was claimed off waivers from Miami, and was especially helpful in September when he filled in for the injured Ramon Urías and hit .305 with an .881 OPS with three home runs and 11 RBIs.

There may not be room for him on next year’s team with Urías and Westburg healthy and Jackson Holliday likely to have a more prominent role. He’s also hurt by being just a first and third baseman, but at a projected $1.4 million, Rivera could be a handy player to have.

Ramon Urías had a solid second half, coming in especially handy when Westburg was hit by a pitch. Urías hit .276 with seven home runs and 25 RBIs with an .819 OPS in the second half. He missed three weeks in September with a sprained right ankle, and the Orioles struggled while he was gone.

Urías made $2.1 million this year and should get about a million more, according to MLBTR.com.

Jacob Webb was 2-5 with a 3.02 ERA with two saves in 60 games despite missing six weeks with right elbow inflammation. At a projected $1.7 million, the Orioles should re-sign him.

There are questions about

Matt Bowman was a surprising pickup by the Orioles and was mostly effective, but two performances at Yankee Stadium, where he allowed five runs on six hits while pitching 1 1/3 innings, didn’t help him, and he was left off the Wild Card roster in favor of Colin Selby, who’d pitched in only three games for the Orioles.

Bowman, who had a 3.45 ERA in 15 games, is projected to make $1.3 million, and the Orioles may choose to spend that money elsewhere.

Jorge Mateo needed Tommy John surgery after a late July collision in Miami with Gunnar Henderson. Mateo, who mostly played second base,  hit just .229 with five home runs and 18 RBIs and 13 steals in 15 chances, but there may not be a place on the Orioles for him in 2025 at a projected $3.2 million.

Cionel Pérez didn’t allow a home run in 53 2/3 innings, but his September numbers weren’t good. The left-hander had a 4.53 ERA in 62 games and a 9.00 ERA in 11 games in the last month of the season.

The Orioles have a $2.2 million option, which they could decline, but he’s projected to make $2.1 in arbitration.

The Orioles gave up top infield prospect Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers to obtain Trevor Rogers, who was sent to Triple-A Norfolk after a 7.11 ERA in four starts.

Part of the Orioles’ attraction to Rogers was that he has two more seasons of club control, but he’s a $2.8 million risk.

The Orioles will probably bring back the left-hander as a back-of-the rotation candidate, but perhaps they can negotiate a lower number before contracts have to be offered.

Gregory Soto had a rough start with the Orioles after the was acquired from the Phillies at the trade deadline. The left-hander allowed eight runs while retiring just two batters in his first and third appearances with the Orioles, but he gradually earned manager Brandon Hyde’s trust, giving up just two runs in his final 20 appearances.

Soto earned $5 million in 2024 and could earn $5.6 million in 2024.