Checking on Orioles’ starting rotation candidates
The Orioles may not make a good enough offer to retain Corbin Burnes, their top-of-the rotation starter, but assuming that he goes elsewhere for more years and many more dollars than the Orioles are equipped to spend, they’ll have to replace him and construct a competitive starting rotation for next season.
Who’s likely to be in the rotation?
Zach Eflin was a strong addition just ahead of the trade deadline, with a 5-2 record and 2.60 ERA. Eflin threw 55 1/3 innings in nine starts.
Any time a starter averages more than six innings per start, that’s excellent, and he struck out more than four times more batters than he walked (47/11).
Grayson Rodriguez didn’t pitch after July 31st because of a right lat/teres strain and missed time earlier in the season with right shoulder discomfort.
Rodriguez was 13-4 with a 3.86 ERA in 20 starts, and while he threw slightly fewer major league innings in 2024 than he did in 2023, he averaged nearly six innings per start.
Dean Kremer
The Orioles would surely take Kremer’s September starts and hope he can duplicate them throughout the season. Kremer had a 2.25 ERA in his four September starts.
Over the course of the season, Kremer was 8-10 with a 4.10 ERA. He missed six weeks with a right triceps injury.
The Orioles will need more starters than Eflin, Kremer and Rodriguez. Where will they find them?
Cade Povich
I hesitate to call Povich a sure thing, but he pitched well enough late in the season that it’s not a stretch to place him among next season’s starters.
Povich was 3-9 with a 5.20 ERA, but he had a 2.60 ERA in five September starts, striking out 32 batters while walking only eight.
Eflin, Kremer and Rodriguez are all right-handed, and Povich is left-handed, which helps.
Albert Suárez was tied with Kremer’s 24 starts for second most behind Burnes’ 32. That’s something that seemed impossible before the season.
After Kyle Bradish and John Means returned to the starting rotation, Suárez went to the bullpen, and when Kremer and Means were injured in May, he was back to starting.
Suárez turned 35 earlier this month, and while the Orioles may not want him to start, he can certainly do so at times as well as be a strong bullpen arm.
Chayce McDermott is their most promising starting candidate from the minor leagues. McDermott started once in Miami on July 24th, allowing three runs on four hits in four innings.
He missed most of the rest of the season with a scapula injury after he was returned to Triple-A Norfolk.
Trevor Rogers
When the Orioles traded Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to Miami at the trade deadline, they hoped Rogers would be an effective left-handed arm.
He wasn’t, and after four starts and a 7.11 ERA, Rogers was went to Triple-A Norfolk, where he finished the season.
One of the appeals of Rogers was that he was under club control for 2025 and 2026, so he’s likely to get every opportunity to help the team whether as a starter or in the bullpen.
Kyle Bradish, John Means, Tyler Wells
Bradish and Wells are under club control while Means is a free agent. Bradish and Means had Tommy John surgery within a few weeks of each other. Wells had season-ending elbow surgery in June, but it wasn’t Tommy John, so he could posssibly be ready sooner than the other two.
Because recovery times vary, and it took Means until September 2023 to return from April 2022 Tommy John surgery due to a back injury that set him back, it’s hard to predict when they might return, let along how effective.
Let’s take a best-case scenario. If Wells can come back and Bradish can return late in the season, the Orioles could get two valuable arms without having to trade for an unknown.
Means is tougher because we don’t know if the Orioles will re-sign him, or if he wants to wait until he’s healthy before he tests free agency.
Free-agent targets
Under new ownership, it will be fascinating to see what sort of offer the Orioles make to Burnes beyond the $21.05 million qualifying offer, which he is certain to decline.
If they don’t re-sign him, the top two free-agent starters are likely to be left-handers Max Fried and Blake Snell.
There are quality starters beyond these two, but if the Orioles are going to be serious players, why not start with these two?
Fried has a lifetime 3.07 ERA in eight seasons with the Braves, and was 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA for Atlanta this season.
Snell has an opt-out clause with San Francisco, and at 32, he’s two years older than Fried. He has a 3.19 ERA in nine seasons with the Giants, Padres and Rays.
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