Orioles face decision on whether to pursue Burnes in free agency

When Orioles manager Brandon Hyde removed his top starter, Corbin Burnes, from Game 1 of the Wild Card Series with the Kansas City Royals after Maikel Garcia singled against him to begin the ninth inning, fans at Camden Yards knew it might be the last time they saw Burnes in an Orioles uniform.

What they didn’t realize was that they’d just witnessed what should turn out to be the longest start of baseball’s 2024 postseason.

In none of the other 41 postseason games played this season has a starter worked more than seven innings, and considering all the short starts in the League Championship Series, it seems unlikely that a starter in the World Series will work eight or even longer.

Burnes’ efficiency, which allowed him to pitch into the ninth on only 84 pitches, will be just another one of agent Scott Boras’ selling points when free agency begins five days after the World Series ends.

Burnes will be the best starting pitcher in an intriguing free-agent market that will also include his Orioles teammate, rightfielder Anthony Santander, and New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto.

There are so many teams that could use Burnes, and Boras will try to convince Orioles owner David Rubenstein that if the Orioles don’t re-sign Burnes they’ll have to search elsewhere for a new top-of-the-rotation starter.

Just two days after Rubenstein’s group reached an agreement to buy the Orioles, the Burnes trade was announced. At the time it was widely assumed to be a rental.

Burnes was entering his free-agent year, and the Milwaukee Brewers hadn’t shown an inclination to pony up for him, and the Orioles, under John Angelos, hadn’t shown an eagerness to play in the free-agent market.

Now that Rubenstein has expressed disappointment that his team lost quickly in the postseason in his first year as an owner, fans believe he’s more eager to spend on free agents.

After Rubenstein said he would “speed up the effort” to get to the World Series, fans think he’s willing to make a competitive offer to Burnes.

The team could always make a $21.05 million qualifying offer to Burnes, which he’ll refuse and receive an additional draft choice when he signs elsewhere.

Or, they could decide that Boras is right that it would be better to retain their No. 1 starter and pay up for one of the best starters in baseball.

Boras also represented Gerrit Cole, who’ll start Game 1 of the World Series on Friday night, when the Yankees play the Dodgers, and he believes that Burnes is the best starting pitcher available in free agency since Cole.

Cole received the largest contract for a pitcher, nine years, $324 million in 2020, and can opt out of his contract after this year, but the Yankees can void that opt-out with a 10^th year at $36 million.

Starting pitching is expensive. The Los Angeles Dodgers signed Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract last offseason.

Burnes turns 30 today, a year younger than Cole was when he signed with the Yankees.

While he may not get the nine-year, $324 million that Cole got, he’ll likely get far more than the seven-year, $172 million the Philadelphia Phillies paid to re-sign right-hander Aaron Nola last November.

Nola was a different case. He was a career-long Phillie, he wasn’t represented by Boras, and he preferred staying with a contending team.

Burnes won the National League Cy Young Award in 2021 and will receive votes for the AL Cy Young this year. He won a career-high 15 games, tied for fifth in the American League and while pitchers’ wins aren’t the measuring stick they were in previous generations, he showed he was durable, averaging more than six innings per start.

His 194 1/3 innings were the second most in his career, and third most in the league. His 2.92 ERA was fourth lowest. Burnes’ hits and walks per nine innings, his won-loss percentage, strikeouts, number of starts and batters faced were all among the league leaders.

If they don’t sign Burnes, they could pivot and try to sign another attractive starter, Atlanta’s Max Fried or San Francisco’s Blake Snell.

It’s clear that the Orioles will spend more this offseason. It will be fascinating to see what they’re willing to spend, and on whom.

Note: Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser is a finalist for Outstanding American League Rookie in the Players Choice Award. Boston outfielder Wilyer Abreu and Yankees catcher Austin Wells are the other finalists.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.