An early look at possible Oriole targets in the free-agent market

Free agency begins after the World Series ends, and we’ll see just how serious the Orioles are about being players in it. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden has published his list of the top 45 free agents, and he thinks the Orioles are possible fits for 15—precisely one-third.

In the past, these lists might contain a mention or two of the Orioles, but the team has never been a presence in the market. Under Mike Elias, they’ve never signed a free agent to a multi-year contract, and their biggest signing was closer Craig Kimbrel’s one-year $12 million contract with a $1 million buyout last December.

Orioles starting pitcher Corbin Burnes is Bowden’s second-rated free agent, behind Yankees outfielder Juan Soto, and Bowden predicts Burnes will sign for seven years, $247 million. That’s an average of about $35.28 million. He lists the Dodgers, Mets and Red Sox as the Orioles’ biggest competition for Burnes.

Chris Davis’ seven-year, $161 million contract, which was signed in early 2016, remains the team’s largest, and it would be intriguing to see if the Orioles under new owner David Rubenstein would agree to a contract that would eclipse Davis’.

Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander, who hit 44 home runs in 2024, is the 10^th-highest free agent on Bowden’s board, and I can’t see the Orioles making more than a courtesy offer on what he predicts will be a seven-year, $150.5 million contract.

The Nationals, Reds, Blue Jays and Mariners are the likely competitors for Santander in Bowden’s eyes.

If the Orioles don’t re-sign Burnes, they could take a shot at Atlanta’s Max Fried or San Francisco’s Blake Snell, both left-handers.

Bowden sees Fried signing a six-year, $174 million deal. The Braves, Orioles, Mets and Red Sox are the best fits.

He sees Snell getting a three-year, $105 million contract with the Orioles, Yankees, Mets, Braves or Giants.

Two pitchers who were both available in the free-agent market in recent years, the Mets’ Sean Manaea and Kansas City’s Michael Wacha, are more reasonably priced.

Manaea’s predicted price tag is three-years, $68 million with the Mets, Orioles and Twins.

Wacha could fetch three years, $54 million from the Royals, Pirates, Twins, Tigers or Orioles.

Besides not participating in bidding for top-tier free agents, the Orioles haven’t been players in the Japanese market. Tomoyoki Sugano, a 35-year-old right-hander, may be on the market. The Padres, Rangers, Dodgers, Guardians and Mets are the best fits, according to Bowden.

Nathan Eovaldi is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 19 starts against the Orioles. He’s pitched for New York, Boston and Tampa Bay in the American League East, and could get a two-year, $42 million contract with a team option. The 34-year-old could stay with Texas, return to Boston, or sign with San Diego or the Orioles.

Like Snell, Jordan Montgomery was a left-handed starter who’s a client of Scott Boras and received disappointing contract offers last offseason. Montgomery signed with Arizona and was only 8-7 with a 6.23 ERA. He has a $22.5 million player option that Bowden thinks he’ll exercise, and the Orioles could trade for him. So could Boston, Detroit, Minnesota or Washington.

Left-hander Yusei Kukuchi was traded from Toronto to Houston in July and at 33, could re-sign with Houston, choose Detroit, Minnesota or the Orioles. His predicted contract is three years and $42 million.

Swingman Nick Martinez is, at 34, a late bloomer who could receive a three-year, $40 million deal from the Reds, Padres, Tigers, Twins, Red Sox or Orioles.

Right-hander Luis Severino moved from the Yankees to the Mets and could be on the move again. If the Mets don’t retain him at Bowden’s two-year, $32 million deal, he could go with the Orioles, Tigers, Pirates or Red Sox.

Left-hander Matthew Boyd pitched well in the postseason for Cleveland after he missed much of the season after Tommy John surgery in June 2023. He could interest a number of teams, including the Guardians and Orioles. and may get only a one-year, $10 million contract.

If the Orioles want to spend money on a reliever, they could opt for Tanner Scott, who they brought to the majors in 2017 and considered trading for in July. The flame-throwing left-hander could receive a four-year,$60 million deal.

Other relievers who could interest the Orioles are Philadelphia’s Jeff Hoffman, who could get a three-year, $27 million contract; and the Yankees’ Clay Holmes, who could received a two-year, $18.5 million deal.

Holmes is of note because he hit Heston Kjerstad on the helmet with a pitch  on July 12^th that caused a concussion that forced Kjerstad to spend two stints on the injured list.

While Bowden is making educated guesses, the sheer number of pitchers whom he forecast could interest the Orioles is far more than has ever been forecast under Elias, and perhaps encouraging that the Orioles could actually sign one or two.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.