The pros and cons of Orioles’ re-signing Santander

The Orioles have made the $21.05 million qualifying offer to retain slugger Anthony Santander, who has until November 19^th to accept or reject it, which is expected.

It’s presumed the Orioles will make some effort to sign Santander. If the 30-year-old outfielder rejects the qualifying offer, the Orioles will receive a draft choice when he signs with another team.

Here’s why the Orioles should sign him, and why they shouldn’t.

Why should they sign him?

He’s an authentic home run hitter.

Santander hit 44 home runs this season. Only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani hit more.

Henry Aaron, who hit 755 home runs in his wonderful career, exceeded 44 home runs only twice.

Even in an era that glamorizes the home run and looks down on “small ball,” Santander’s 44-home run season is the seventh most in Orioles history.

Eddie Murray, Boog Powell and Cal Ripken Jr. never even had a 40-home run season.

While the 44 home runs were a career high, Santander hit 33 in 2022 and 28 in 2023, so this season is not a total outlier.

The Orioles need to make big news this offseason

With new owner David Rubenstein saying the Orioles need to “speed up the effort” to get to the World Series, he’s encouraging his fanbase to dream big.

Signing a good starting pitcher, say, Nathan Eovaldi, or a good right-handed hitter, Tyler O’Neill, for example, may make sense but fans might be expecting more.

They could try to re-sign ace starter Corbin Burnes, whose contract will dwarf Santander’s, or extend one of their young core players, but re-signing “Tony Taters,” a fan favorite, would be a popular move.

The Orioles need a right-handed hitting outfielder

Santander is a switch-hitter, and without him, they’d have to sign or trade for a right-handed hitting outfielder. While Heston Kjerstad could get more time in right field, he’s another left-handed hitter, just as Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins are.

Why shouldn’t they sign him?

He’s 30, and his contract may be too large

During the latter part of the season, one Orioles writer asked each of us who cover the team what we thought Santander would fetch in the market. I hadn’t thought about it, but I blurted out, five years, $115 million. That turned out to be the highest in the group, but it may be close.

MLBTradeRumors predicts he’ll get four years, $80 million. FanGraphs predicts five years, $100 million, and The Athletic, five years, $105 million.

Santander turned 30 on October 19^th, and he might not age well. The Orioles spent $161 million over seven years for first baseman Chris Davis, who at 29 had just hit 47 home runs in 2015, and that contract was a disaster.

He’s too one-dimensional

According to BaseballReference.com, Santander has a career -3.5 Defensive WAR (Wins Above Replacement), though he had a career-high seven assists in 2024.

Santander doesn’t have great speed. He has only 10 stolen bases in his career. Strangely, he had just one more extra-base hit this season, 71, than he had in 2023.

This year, Santander had 44 home runs, 25 doubles and two triples. Last year, he hit 28 home runs but had 41 doubles and one triple.

It can be painful to watch him jog to first base on ground balls, and it isn’t a good example to his young teammates.

Some analytics aren’t kind to him

Despite those 44 home runs, Santander’s WAR was 2.9 this year, down from 3.0 last year. His WAR was lower than Gunnar Henderson (9.1), Adley Rutschman (3.4), Colton Cowser (3.1). His FanGraphs WAR is a bit higher, 3.3.

In Baseball Savant’s rankings, Santander is rated high in batting run value and poor in both fielding run value and baserunning run value.

In BABIP, batting average on balls hit in play, which excludes home runs and strikeouts, Santander had by far the lowest average in baseball, 229, last among 129 players.

What happens?

The guess here is that Santander’s power will attract multiple suitors. He’s a charming guy, who worked hard at learning English and is an excellent interview. His lovely parents come from Venezuela each summer to see their son’s games, home and away.

Unless Santander’s market isn’t as robust as predicted, I can’t see the Orioles offering four or five years. I can see him returning to the Orioles on a three-year deal, but I think he’ll have enough teams offering four or more years that he’s unlikely to re-sign here.

Note: Double-A Bowie manager Roberto Mercado will manage the American League in Saturday night’s “Fall Stars,” the Arizona Fall League All-Star Game.

Mercado, who is managing the Surprise Saguaros, will be joined by catcher Creed Willems, who finished 2024 with the Baysox. In his first 17 games for Surprise, Willems is hitting .338 with two home runs and 11 RBIs.

The game can be seen on MLB Network at 8 p.m.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.