Checking in on some Orioles’ free-agent starting pitching options
Corbin Burnes is the top free agent starter available this offseason, and the Orioles should make every reasonable effort to sign him.
If they don’t, they’ll look at other starters. Here are some other top starters who are available:
Max Fried
According to BaseballReference.com’s similarity scales, Burnes is the eighth most comparable pitcher to Fried.
Both are 30, but Fried is left-handed while Burnes is a right-hander.
In eight seasons with Atlanta, Fried is 73-36 with a 3.07 ERA. He’s a two-time National League All-Star and twice won the Gold Glove.
He averages eight hits per nine innings, less than one home run per nine innings, and strikes out about 3 ½ more batters per nine innings than he walks.
Fried has two complete games in his career. Burnes has never completed a game.
FanGraphs and The Athletic estimate that Fried will get a five-year, $140 million contract. MLBTradeRumors guesses six years, $156 million.
Blake Snell
Like Fried, Snell’s a left-hander, but he’s two years older than Burnes and Fried. He’ll turn 32 on December 4th.
Snell was limited to 20 starts in 2024 because of two stints on the injured list with groin/adductor injuries.
In his 20 starts, Snell was 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA with San Francisco and threw a no-hitter on August 2nd against the Chicago Cubs.
Snell allowed one hit in six shutout innings on September 17th against the Orioles, striking out 12 and walking two.
In nine years with the Rays, Padres and Giants, Snell is 76-58 with a 3.19 ERA. He has averaged fewer than seven hits per nine innings and has struck out more than 11 batters per nine, but walked 4.1
FanGraphs estimates Snell will settle for a three-year, $105 million contract while The Athletic guesses four years, $110 million. MLBTradeRumors guesses much higher, five years, $160 million.
Nathan Eovaldi
Eovaldi will turn 35 next February, and he’s the oldest of the prospective free agents we’ll look at here.
In 13 years, Eovaldi is 91-81 with a 4.07 ERA. He’s played with six teams — the Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami, Texas, and most relevant, three American League East teams, Boston, New York and Tampa Bay.
His experience in the AL East could be attractive to the Orioles, and he’s 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA in 19 starts against them and 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in six starts at Camden Yards.
He’s had late career success. His two All-Star selections came in 2021 and 2023 and in 2024, Eovaldi was 12-8 with a 3.80 ERA in 29 starts. Eovaldi struck out nearly four times as many batters as he walked this past season with the Rangers.
The Athletic is guessing he gets two years, $45 million, FanGraphs says three years, $48 million and MLBTradeRumors’ guess is two years, $44 million.
Jack Flaherty
The most intriguing question about Flaherty is, would the Orioles consider him after his unhappy stint with them in 2023, and would he think about a return?
After a 6.75 ERA in nine games, seven starts, with the Orioles after they acquired him at last year’s trade deadline, Flaherty signed a one-year contract with Detroit, which traded him to the Dodgers at this year’s trade deadline.
Overall, Flaherty was 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA with Detroit and St. Louis.
The Athletic thinks Flaherty will cash in and get a four-year, $92 million deal. FanGraphs says four years, $88 million and MLBTradeRumors believes he can expect a five-year, $115 contract.
Yusie Kikuchi
Kukuchi is 33, and has only pitched in the major leagues since 2019. The Orioles saw a lot of Kikuchi in three seasons with Toronto, and he’s 5-5 with a 4.80 in 15 games,12 starts against them and has a 5.06 ERA at Camden Yards.
Like Fried and Snell, he’s a left-hander, and after the Blue Jays traded him to Houston, Kikuchi was 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts.
FanGraphs’ estimated contract for Kikuchi is three years, $51 million, MLBTradeRumors agrees with three years, but thinks he’ll get $60 million and The Athletic’s reading is three years, $63 million.
Sean Manaea
At 32, the left-hander has played for four different teams in the last four seasons, and he’ll likely play for a fifth next season. Manaea had his best season in his nine-year career with the New York Mets, going 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA. He allowed just 6.6 hits per nine innings.
FanGraphs forecasts that he’ll receive a three-year contract at $57 million. MLBTradeRumors thinks his three-year deal will be worth $60 million and The Athletic is more bullish with a forecast of four years, $76 million.
Shane Bieber
With Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells lost to season-ending elbow injuries in 2024, it seems unlikely that the Orioles would sign Bieber, who had Tommy John surgery after throwing 12 scoreless innings to start the season.
Bieber won’t be ready to start the season, but when he’s right, he’s terrific. In seven seasons with Cleveland, he’s 62-32 with 3.22 ERA. He strikes out more than five times the number of batters than he walks, and fans 10.2 per nine innings.
FanGraphs thinks Bieber can still get a two-year, $36 million deal. The Athletic thinks a two-year, $30 million contract is possible while MLBTradeRumors thinks Bieber must settle for a year at $12 million.
Luis Severino
Severino will be 31 early in spring training, and in 2024 had a bounce-back year, going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 31 starts for the Mets, his best year since going 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA with the Yankees in 2018.
The consensus says Severino gets three years with MLBTradeRumors, forecasting $51 million,The Athletic, $50 million and FanGraphs $39 million.
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