Sizing up Orioles’ shopping list for next week’s Winter Meetings
As the Winter Meetings concluded a year ago, the Orioles signed Craig Kimbrel to be their new closer, and the $13 million they spent on him was shockingly the biggest contract announced that week in Nashville.
A year later, it’s highly possible that the Orioles will spend much more money at this year’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, which begin a week from now, but theirs certainly won’t be the largest contract.
The past few days saw a few relevant signings. A top left-handed starter, Blake Snell, who was seen as a fallback for the Orioles if they aren’t able to re-sign Corbin Burnes, agreed to a five-year, $182 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers with significant deferred money.
Another was left-handed starter Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $61 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
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Both Snell and Kikuchi are clients of Scott Boras, as is Burnes. Another Boras client, right-hander Frankie Montas signed a two-year, $34 million contract with the New York Mets on Sunday night.
The Dodgers also agreed on a five-year, $74 million extension with utilityman Tommy Edman. That deal, like Snell’s, includes substantial deferrals.
The important question is, if Snell, who turns 32 on Wednesday and is two years older than Burnes, is worth more than $36 million a year, how much is Burnes worth?
At the beginning of free agency, there were predictions that Burnes would sign for seven years, $200 million. That would be by far the largest contract in Orioles history but seemingly palatable to new owner David Rubenstein.
If Burnes, at 30, can command a seven-year contract, Boras would insist on him receiving at least as much as Snell. That would mean a contract in excess of $250 million.
Even with significant deferrals, that’s a lot of money for a small-market team.
Snell got a $52 million signing bonus with $65 million–$15 million annually deferred.
The Orioles began paying Chris Davis, who signed a seven-year, $161 million contract in January 2016, $3.5 million annually in deferred money in 2023. Davis gets that $3.5 million a year through 2032, and from 2033-2037, they’ll pay him $1.4 million per year.
Some of the teams that could be competing with the Orioles for Burnes are the Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, and the San Francisco Giants, who were listed as a contender by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
With the Dodgers presumably out of the race for Burnes now that Snell has signed with them, there wasn’t a West Coast team listed as a landing spot until the Giants.
Many fans have concluded that because Burnes lives in Arizona, he’d prefer a West Coast team, or at least a team that trains in Arizona. There’s been nothing definitive to suggest that’s the case.
This week, there was another report that the Orioles were interested in 34-year-old veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi. That seemed entirely logical since Eovaldi has a long record of success against the Orioles and with American League East teams.
It wouldn’t be absurd to think that the Orioles could sign Burnes and Eovaldi.
Burnes had an excellent year with the Orioles, and while it’s always a risk to sign starting pitchers to five-, six- or seven-year contracts, that’s what it’s going to take.
There’s also the needed symbolic commitment from ownership, which hasn’t been present in the early years of executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias’ tenure.
The Orioles have other holes to fill as well. They need a right-handed hitting outfielder since it’s likely they’re not going to be in the final bidding for free agent Anthony Santander.
They also need some experienced late-inning relievers to replace Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb. While they expect Félix Bautista to return to his dominant form after his October 2023 Tommy John surgery, they need other dependable arms.
They have right-handers Yennier Cano and Seranthony Domínguez and left-handers Keegan Akin, Gregory Soto and Cionel Pérez, but another big-time arm would be great.
They also need a dependable backup catcher.
Perhaps there’ll be some more telling moves this week. Besides Burnes, left-hander Max Fried, right-hander Jack Flaherty and a host of second- and third-tier starters who could conceivably interest the Orioles.
The action on the right-handed hitting outfielder might have to wait for Juan Soto to sign. Soto’s principal suitors are seemingly the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Blue Jays. He’s expected to get an amazingly lucrative deal, and once he’s signed, Santander seems like the next in line.
Unlike other Decembers, the Orioles will be engaged in free-agent talks, and not just on the periphery.
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