A look at Orioles’ minor league system: Basallo, Mayo and the chances of signing Sasaki

Ben Badler has provided baseball analysis, prospect rankings and scouting reports for Baseball America since 2007. We talked about the Orioles’ farm system and their chances for signing Japanese pitching prospect Roki Sasaki. This interview has been edited for brevity.

Question: The Orioles’ farm system was long ranked as the best in baseball. With so many prospects now playing in the majors or traded, how do you rank their minor league system now?

Ben Badler: “I think it’s still a solid farm system right now. Obviously, it’s not where it was previously, where it was the No. 1 farm system in baseball. Their top three prospects right now are very strong with Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo. I think they are going to be two of the top 25 prospects overall in baseball.

“To have two of those guys in your system is a pretty strong sign. Heston Kjerstad, for understandable reasons, it’s taken him a little bit longer for him to graduate from being a prospect, still another good player.

“After that, that’s where it gets a little bit dicier. There’s still some players who do things you like, but that’s where you start to see the drop off. Right now, they have three Top 100 guys. I think that’s probably going to be it for them. It’s not what it was maybe a couple of years ago, but it’s still in a pretty solid place right now.”

Q: Did Coby Mayo’s rough initiation to the major leagues change how he’s viewed as a prospect?

Badler: “It’s a 22-year-old player who got 40-something plate appearances. Plenty of players come up and struggle in a really small sample size. There’s plenty of players who have come up and struggle over a full season before everything clicked for them. I think there are still plenty of reasons, especially offensively to be excited about him.

“If he does have to go to first base full time, that puts more demand on the offensive ability with him. I think there’s still offensive upside for him to project pretty well at first base long-term, too.”

Q: Samuel Basallo has caught and played first base. At what position is he a better prospect?

Badler: “His value is highest if he’s able to stay behind the plate. He has a great arm. This year, in terms of the reviews that we got on his defense, he might be able to handle it. It’s tough for him because I think his bat has been so good.

“If he was a more normal hitter, a good hitter, a typical 19, just turned 20-year-old, he’d probably be in Low-A, maybe High-A, still have maybe a couple more years to figure things out or develop on the defensive side before his bat is ready for the big leagues.

“He’s not going to have that much time to develop defensively before the bat is going to be ready. His defense is going to need to be ready pretty quick. You don’t see too many catchers as physically large as he is in the big leagues.

“I think he could catch long-term, potentially, but especially in that organization maybe he catches, but I can also see his long-term future maybe at first base, too.”

Q: What do you think about their two most recent No. 1 picks, Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Vance Honeycutt?

Badler: “They have prioritized defense and center field defense with both of those players, both high-risk types for different reasons.

“With Vance Honeycutt, nobody questions the tools he has, power, speed, three years of performance at North Carolina, the type of tools you don’t typically see at the back of the first round. Those are the type of tools where if people felt really confident in his ability, you’d be talking about a Top 5 overall pick.

“He swung and missed at a really high clip at North Carolina. It’s always been a concern with him. It continued to be a concern with him, even through his draft year, even after he signs, a very small sample size, but it continued into pro ball, too. Certainly a lot of upside if he’s able to cut down on the swing-and-miss, but the swing-and-miss is a pretty big red flag with him.

“With Enrique Bradfield, one of the fastest players in baseball, one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, another guy who has a chance to be an elite defender if he can produce enough offensively to be an everyday player with him. The question is not so much the contact, like with Honeycutt: ‘Is he going to hit the ball to hit the ball with enough impact to do enough damage to be an everyday guy?’

“I think there’s enough upside there where he could have that outcome. The big risk with him is: ‘How much impact, how much extra-base damage is he going to be able to deliver?’”

Q: Do the Orioles have a chance to sign Japanese right-hander Roki Sasaki?

Badler: “They should be in the mix. There are 30 teams that want to sign him, so it’s obviously going to be extremely competitive. I wouldn’t put them as the favorites. I think the Dodgers and Padres are very well positioned.

“Depending on what’s looking for and what he really values, which only Roki Sasaki knows, I think there’s a lot of things that line up well for Baltimore. They have a little bit more money in their bonus pool compared to a lot other teams that I think will be serious players for him.

“If he had decided to stay in Japan for a couple of more years, we’d be looking at easily a couple of hundred million dollars, so I don’t know how much a difference of maybe a couple of million dollars is going to make a difference to him.

“If he wants to go to a team that can be a playoff team right away and are in a really good position to be a playoff contender for the next five to six years, and be under team control, the Baltimore Orioles certainly check that box.

“If he wants to go to a team where there’s going to be less of a bright light, media spotlight on him compared to L.A. or New York or Boston, I don’t know what Sasaki is looking for, but if that could be the case, I think Baltimore would fit that. If he wants to be ‘The Man’ in a rotation and help take a team over the top, Baltimore certainly needs pitching. The lineup is pretty well set, but it could certainly use more pitching

“It’s not like he would make as much of a difference maker for the Dodgers compared to what he might be for the Orioles where he’d be the No. 1, No. 2 type starter on that club. I don’t think they’re the No. 1 favorite to sign him. It’s going to be extremely competitive, but I do think they’re a team that has a lot of offer and should be in the mix for him.”

Note: Right-handed pitcher Thaddeus Ward cleared waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Norfolk. Ward was claimed off waivers from Washington on November 4^th. The Orioles have 37 players on their 40-man roste.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.