What we’re learning from the Orioles’ offseason

In some ways, this offseason was viewed as our first real glimpse into how Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias thinks. Under David Rubenstein’s ownership, he’d finally have the leeway to increase payroll. The franchise could finally “lift off” with the freedom to explore every avenue for improving now and in the future. It turns out we perhaps already knew more about their way of doing business than we’d realized. Here are five thoughts on what the offseason has taught us:

Multi-year deals for mediocrity? No thanks.

It seems that the Orioles explored the market for the top starting pitchers available in free agency. How hard they pushed is a fair question, but various reports confirmed that they were “in on” the likes of Yusei Kikuchi, Blake Snell and Nathan Eovaldi and offered close to $200 million to retain Corbin Burnes. There were only five free agent starting pitchers projected by FanGraphs for at least 2.9 WAR in 2025. With 30 teams vying for them, the odds of one ending up in Baltimore were slim.

Once the “fab five” landed elsewhere, Elias quickly added 41-year-old Charlie Morton, a one-year option whose projected 2025 WAR (1.4) isn’t far off from the likes of Luis Severino and Sean Manaea (2.0) who each received three-year deals for at least $67 million and would’ve required the Orioles to surrender their third-highest draft pick in 2025.

Elias seems intent on avoiding multi-year deals for mid-tier starting pitchers who were disastrous for the previous front office. Dan Duquette took multiple unsuccessful swings in this arena — Ubaldo Jiménez, Yovani Gallardo and Alex Cobb. Elias tries to replicate that production from one-year options like Morton, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles, specifically valuing the health and innings they provide.

Multi-year deals for more impact? They’re now in play under Rubenstein.

Tyler O’Neill was the second-best hitter in baseball last season against lefty pitching, trailing only Aaron Judge. He slugged 31 homers in just 473 plate appearances, was worth 2.5 WAR, and has a 5.3 WAR season under his belt in 2021. He has a chance to be an impactful hitter for the Orioles, and thus Elias and Rubenstein were comfortable guaranteeing three years and $49.5 million to him. This tier of risk and spending may not have been available to the front office under John Angelos.

The Orioles are spending despite narratives to the contrary

According to Spotrac, only seven teams have spent more in free agency this offseason than the Orioles. Since the trade deadline, Elias has added over $88 million to the 2025 payroll across nine different players. As Rich Dubroff mentioned, the O’s payroll is approaching $150 million, putting them in the middle of the pack in baseball and ahead of every team in the American League Central.

They haven’t added any substantial long-term commitments, but the narrative that they aren’t augmenting the 2025 payroll substantially is false.

Elias has the next few seasons to consider as well. When looking at future arbitration salaries for players like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Kyle Bradish, the Orioles are trending toward a payroll that could approach $200 million by 2027. As much as $120 million may be required to retain just 12 current Orioles within two years.

Deep depth is as important as anything to Elias

For years, it’s been assumed that players like Ramón Urías, Jorge Mateo and even Ryan Mountcastle could be traded or non-tendered to make room for prospects like Coby Mayo or more impactful signings. Elias once again tendered contracts to all three, valuing the depth, versatility and matchups they provide for manager Brandon Hyde.

Urías’ value was particularly on display in the second half of 2024, when his .819 OPS ranked third on the team, ahead of Henderson, Rutschman, Colton Cowser and Ryan O’Hearn. Given the injuries to Mountcastle, Westburg and Mateo, the Orioles may not have made the playoffs without him.

Having a deep lineup and the ability to match up late in games against dominant relievers is more important in today’s game than ever before. Consider this: the Orioles led baseball in 2024 with nine different players who accumulated at least a .700 OPS (minimum 300 at-bats). Every team with at least seven different .700-OPS players finished .500 or better.

Even with new ownership, PR problems persist

MASN’s “Orioles Classics” recently replayed the Orioles’ 2024 home opener. I had forgotten how much excitement was in the air that day after 101 wins in 2023, the announcement of a new ownership group and the club’s addition of its first ace starting pitcher since Mike Mussina. It’s striking how quickly fan sentiment has plummeted less than a year later. The Orioles have themselves to blame for some of that.

Elias said this in December 2024 about the top of the starting pitching market:

“I’m very confident shopping in it, and we have been, we continue to be, but the competition is enormous. Last year, we were able to figure out a way to get a top-of-the-rotation starter. I don’t think that’s something that all 30 teams pull off every year, but we’re all trying. I’m going to do my best to figure it out.”

Rubenstein said this in October 2024:

“I’m now 75 years old. It’s unlikely that I’ll be, you know, doing this for 20 more years. So I’ve got to speed up the effort to get [to] a World Series a lot sooner than maybe some younger owners would.”

Making mostly depth acquisitions after these public comments will of course result in a disgruntled fan base. The Orioles would be wise to have a more honest dialogue with fans about how they’ll build their team on a yearly basis. They’ve done it at times, but the messaging hasn’t been consistent. Comments like these and Elias’ now infamous “lift off” quote set unrealistic expectations that a small-market team is unlikely to deliver. Why not under-promise and over-deliver? The inverse isn’t helping the Orioles in their quest to bring fans back to Camden Yards.