Oriole starters must pitch better than their projections in 2025

The biggest question for the Orioles is: How are they going to replace Corbin Burnes as their top starter.

The oddsmakers don’t seem to be as concerned as the fans. In their latest assessment of major league teams, BetOnline.ag believes the Orioles have the second-highest chance of making the playoffs in the American League, and the fourth highest in the major leagues.

They give the Orioles a 73.3 percent chance of playing in October, trailing only the New York Yankees’ 80 percent chance.

FanGraphs rates the Orioles’ pitching depth as the 25^th highest in baseball, which would rank it last in the five-team American League East.

They see only the Cleveland Guardians, Athletics and Chicago White Sox with less depth in their rotation.

The Orioles’ 10 projected starters — Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez, Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, Tomoyuki Sugano, Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers, Albert Suárez, Chayce McDermott and Brandon Young — have a combined 9.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

Boston’s starters have a 14.8 WAR, highest in the American League and fourth highest in baseball. New York (14.0), Tampa Bay (12.9) and Toronto (10.5) each are rated higher.

FanGraphs bases the rankings on projected playing time.

The Orioles’ projected starters’ ERA is 4.15, 21^st in the major leagues.

Last season, with Burnes, Oriole starters’ ERA was 3.77. In 2023, their starters had a 4.14 ERA, almost exactly what their projected ERA is thus year, and the team won 101 games, 10 more than last season.

Starting pitching is the most important component of a successful team, but it’s not everything. The Orioles’ bullpen with Félix Bautista as its closer for more than three-quarters of the season had a 3.55 ERA in 2023. Without him, their bullpen ERA rose to 4.22.

The team’s offensive stats, due to a mediocre second half, fell from 2023. Last year, the Orioles hit .250 with runners in scoring position. They hit .287 in 2023.

Is the Orioles’ rotation one of the worst in baseball?

Eflin’s 2024 WAR of 2.6 was below his 2023 WAR of 3.5, but he did much better with the Orioles, who traded for him on July 26^th, than with the Tampa Bay Rays. He had a .9 WAR and 4.09 ERA in 19 starts with the Rays. In nine starts with the Orioles, his ERA was 2.60 with a 1.7 WAR. A full season with the Orioles could help Eflin’s stats.

Rodriguez had a 2.0 WAR, according to FanGraphs, and they project him to have a 2.5 WAR in 2025. He started 20 times, and with a healthy 32-start season, he could boost his WAR significantly.

Morton’s lifetime WAR is 30.3. Last season, the 41-year-old had a 1.1 WAR, his lowest in a full season since 2016. His projection this season is 1.4.

Kremer had a 1.4 WAR last season, and this season, he’s projected to have a 1.0.

Sugano is the hardest to predict. After 12 seasons in Japan, he’s coming to the United States to pitch for the first time and he’s been assigned a .8 WAR, the same as left-hander Cade Povich. In 2024, Povich had a .5 WAR in 15 starts.

Rogers had just four starts with the Orioles, and he had a 7.11 ERA after the Miami Marlins traded him on July 30^th. Overall, Rogers was 2-11 with a 4.92 ERA and a .9 WAR. This year, he’s predicted to have a .3.

Last season, Suárez was the Orioles’ biggest surprise, starting 24 times, tied for second most on the team with Kremer. He had a 1.4 WAR, but this year, the 35-year-old is projected to have just a .3 WAR as a starter.

McDermott, who started one game, is assigned a .2 WAR. Young, whose next start in the majors will be his first, got a .1.

FanGraphs does not include Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells, who will begin the season on the 60-day injured list after season-ending elbow surgeries last June. The Orioles haven’t projected a return date for either.

Oriole starters must perform better than the projections for the team to contend, and Bautista and the rest of the bullpen might have to pitch as many innings as they did last year, and more effectively.

Notes: Infielder Liván Soto, who was designated for assignment on January 10^th, cleared outright waivers and was assigned to Triple-A Norfolk. … The Ed Smith Stadium box office and team store will open at 10 a.m. on Tuesday. The hours are 10-3 through the end of spring training.

Call for questions: I answer Orioles questions most weekdays. Please send yours to: Rich@BaltimoreBaseball.com.