Orioles’ 2025 draft could benefit the team in several ways

When free agency began after the 2024 World Series, the Orioles had hopes to retain ace pitcher Corbin Burnes, slugging outfielder Anthony Santander, or both.

Now that both are gone, they did leave the team with one thing: a draft pick. The O’s got two compensation picks for losing those players.

So, they have selections No. 19, which is their own first-round pick, and No. 30 and No. 31 for losing the two players. This means that, for the first time in seven drafts under Mike Elias (with No. 7 coming next July), the Orioles will have six top 100 draft picks.

And while they don’t have the No. 1 pick as they did twice under Elias or even a top five, they have a nice haul. In addition to the talent they can add, with MLB’s slotting system, they also have a little extra economic clout by adding the compensation  picks.

They added approximately $5.87 million in bonus pool space with the added picks. And according to MLB.com’s and MLBPipeline.com’s senior writer Jim Callis, it’s not a bad time to have the extra picks.

“In a perfect world you would rather not lose free agents, but having picks at 19, 30 and 31, that’s essentially three first-round picks there,” Callis said. “You don’t usually get that as a contending team.

“The last couple of years we’ve had some very top-heavy drafts. The top five players in 2023 were very special. Last year there were like six or seven players that really set themselves apart and you had an advantage if you were picking there.

“This is not that draft. I think it’s more of a depth draft than real top heavy. Sure, you’d rather pick one or three and get one of the very top guys, but I feel like the depth is pretty good in this year’s draft. So, you could come away with three pretty good players.”

The Orioles also hold picks at No. 59 (their second-rounder), No. 71 (a Competitive Balance Round B selection) and No. 94 (in round three).

Here are the previous top 100 picks under Elias and next year:

2019: 1, 42, 71, 79

2020: 2, 30, 39, 74

2021: 5, 41, 65, 76

2022: 1, 33, 42, 67, 81

2023: 17, 53, 63, 86

2024: 22, 32, 61, 97

2025: 19, 30, 31, 59, 71, 94

So, in addition to six in the top 94, which they’ve never had under Elias and his staff, they’ve also never had three of the top 31 with his front office group.

It’s a chance to do some good for the future.

Each year all MLB teams get an assigned slot bonus value for every top 10 pick. The total of all those pick values equals the team’s total draft pool. The larger the pool the more maneuverability and options the team has in signing draft picks. If you spend under slot on one pick you have that extra amount to spend on other picks. A savings in one spot can lead to overage somewhere else as you navigate the system to maximize your draft haul.

In the 2020 draft, when the Orioles selected outfielder Heston Kjerstad No. 2 overall, he signed for a bonus of $5.2 million which was a whopping $2.6 million under slot. The O’s used that savings and spent big in overslot signings of high school players later that draft.

In round four they selected Coby Mayo No. 103 overall. The bonus slot amount was $565,600, but he signed for $1.75 million. In round five, with pick No. 133, they added pitcher Carter Baumler. The slot for that pick was $422,300 and he signed for $1.5 million.

This strategy, we now know, produced two top 100 prospects in Kjerstad and Mayo, and you don’t often get top 100 players at pick No. 103.

Plus all teams hope to hit it big with their top pick, and the Orioles have that chance, too.

Said Callis: “The guy they get at 19, honestly, might be close to the same caliber as the guy that goes six or seven in this year’s draft. This is a nice year to have extra picks late in the first round than it would be say the past couple of years.

“When you win you don’t usually get extra picks with a higher bonus and they could do some things that a team typically making the playoffs two straight years isn’t able to do.”

Going by last year’s slot amounts since we don’t know yet what they will be for this coming draft, the No. 19 pick had a slot of around $4.22 million while pick No. 30 had a slot of $2.97 million and No. 31 was $2.90 million.

That is about $10.1 million for just those three picks. Last year, for picks in all 10 rounds (11 total selections), the O’s total pool was $10,920,900. Each year the slots go up and last year they grew by 8.7 percent from 2023.

In addition to that, the 2024 slot amount for pick No. 59 was $1.49 million, for pick No. 71 was $1.1 million and for pick No. 94 was $776,000.

That adds up to $13.46 million for their first six picks and they still get slot amounts to add to that for later picks through 10 rounds.

Baltimore should have one of the largest team bonus pools for the 2025 draft.

It’s not a bad spot to be in. Then consider they selected Jordan Westburg No. 30 and Gunnar Henderson at No. 42, and you can see the caliber of player you can get with the O’s top three selections with shrewd drafting.