Many questions for Orioles in final 2 weeks
September has been the most challenging month for the Orioles. After beginning the month with three wins against Colorado and the Chicago White Sox, the Orioles have lost seven of 10, scoring just over two runs per game.
Let’s look at what’s ahead in the final two weeks of the regular season.
What is the Orioles’ playoff outlook?
The Orioles are a lock to play in the postseason, even though they haven’t played like a playoff team for a long time. Three models — BaseballReference.com, FanGraphs and ESPN — each give them odds of 99.5 percent or greater of playing in October.
However, the Orioles’ chances of winning the American League East are low. FanGraphs gives them an 11.8 percent chance of beating out the New York Yankees for the East title.
Trailing by three games with 12 to go, the Orioles need to have a strong week before they go to Yankee Stadium on September 24th for a three-game series.
This week, they have three games against the San Francisco Giants, who aren’t going to the postseason, and three more against Detroit, a hot team on the fringes of playoff contention.
After losing three consecutive series, the Orioles don’t look like a team that’s ramping up for October.
With a division title unlikely, the Orioles need to finish ahead of the Kansas City Royals, who hold the second wild-card spot. If they finish behind the Royals, they’ll have to play the best-of-three wild-card round on the road instead of at Camden Yards.
Oriole fans don’t have to be reminded of 10 years ago when a confident Orioles team lost four straight to Kansas City and its powerful bullpen in the American League Championship Series.
How many rehabbing players make it back?
The Orioles’ injured list, which has grown over the last three months, has finally begun to shrink.
Outfielder/designated hitter Heston Kjerstad and reliever Jacob Webb were activated on Sunday. Perhaps this week left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe, who’s had two scoreless outings at Triple-A Norfolk, comes back, three months after surgery on his left elbow to remove bone chips.
Infielder Ramón Urías, who’s been out since September 1st with a sprained right ankle, seems to be improving, according to reports. Jordan Westburg, whose steady play at second and third base has been missed, appears to be working his way back, too.
The Orioles would love for Urías and Westburg, who’s coming back from a fractured right hand, to get in some rehab games for Norfolk, but it’s the last week of play for the Tides, and they may have to have simulated games in Sarasota or with the major league team instead.
First baseman Ryan Mountcastle’s sprained left wrist has been slow to heal, and it seems doubtful that Grayson Rodriguez will get any rehab innings this week for Norfolk.
Is there any hope for the offense?
After an August when the Orioles hit .231 and had a .639 OPS, both season lows, the September numbers have been worse. They’re hitting .224 with a .678 OPS.
Gunnar Henderson has been carrying the team offensively. He has a .353 average and 1.139 OPS.
Cedric Mullins is having his best month of the season with a .310 average, a 1.037 OPS, four home runs and 10 RBIs.
No other player’s September stats approach those of Henderson and Mullins.
Anthony Santander, who hit 30 home runs in June, July and August, has just two this month.
Adley Rutschman, who homered for just the third time since the All-Star break on Sunday, has recently shown signs of productivity but is still hitting just .222 this month with five RBIs.
Ryan O’Hearn is just 6-for-43 (.140) with just one RBI in September, and Colton Cowser’s average is only .212 with two RBIs.
As for Jackson Holliday, the 20-year-old looks overmatched at the plate and manager Brandon Hyde started Liván Soto over him three times this past week.
Eloy Jiménez, whom the Orioles hoped would provide some punch when he was acquired at the trade deadline, has followed a .296 average with a dreadful September. Jiménez is hitting .048 (1-for-21) this month.
Can the starters continue their strong month?
It was overlooked on Friday night when the Orioles were an out away from being no-hit, but Zach Eflin pitched brilliantly, allowing just one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings.
On Saturday night, Corbin Burnes delivered his best start—two hits in seven scoreless innings.
Eflin and Burnes have helped Oriole starters compile a 2.55 ERA this month, their second best month of 2024.
On the other hand, the bullpen has a 5.15 ERA, the worst of the season.
Burnes, Eflin, Dean Kremer and Albert Suárez, who continues to be solid, could give the Orioles a formidable starting rotation next month, but the offense has 12 games to show they’re capable of supporting the starters.