The pros and cons of Orioles’ re-signing Burnes
Corbin Burnes is the most attractive starting pitcher in the free-agent market. The Orioles knew he’d be testing free agency when they acquired him from Milwaukee last February, just two days after the sale of the team to David Rubenstein was announced.
Had the team not been sold, there would have been no question that Burnes would stay with the team for only 2024. Rubenstein’s recent comment that he wants the Orioles to “speed up the effort” to get to the World Series left the impression that it was possible they’d get into the bidding for the star 30-year-old right-hander.
As with slugging outfielder Anthony Santander, the Orioles made a $21.05 million qualifying offer for Burnes. He has until November 19th to accept or reject it, and there’s no doubt he’ll reject it. The Orioles will get a draft choice from the team that signs him—if he doesn’t sign with the Orioles.
Here’s why the Orioles should sign him, and why they shouldn’t.
Why should they sign him?
Burnes is a true ace, and they’re hard to come by
Burnes is the best starting pitcher the Orioles have had since Mike Mussina, who left the team after the 2000 season.
He had an excellent season with a 15-9 record and 2.92 ERA. Though he missed time after the birth of twin girls in late June, he made 32 starts. Twenty-two were quality starts, where he allowed three or fewer earned runs in six or more innings.
Burnes pitched 194 1/3 innings, the most by an Oriole since Chris Tillman’s 207 1/3 in 2014.
If the Orioles don’t re-sign Burnes, they’ll have to replace him, and while Nathan Eovaldi, Max Fried, Sean Manaea and Blake Snell are attractive pitchers, they’re not as good as Burnes.
He’s a four-time All-Star and won the Cy Young Award with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021.
Burnes is durable and hasn’t missed a start because of injury in the last three seasons. That’s key because with nearly every other starter in the Orioles’ rotation spending time on the injured list, Burnes was always there.
He pitched into the ninth inning in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, longer than any other starter in this year’s postseason.
The fans want the Orioles to think big
Many fans would like the Orioles to sign Burnes and Santander, which is not going to happen. With a new owner who’s obviously aggressive, they want to see a headline-grabbing signing.
The Orioles haven’t had one of those since they re-signed Chris Davis, also a Scott Boras client after the 2015 season.
This is a different situation than Davis, who signed for seven years and $161 million, still an Orioles record.
Unlike with Davis, the Orioles would be one of many teams in the hunt for Burnes, who would fit nicely into any contending team’s rotation.
Signing Burnes would convince the fan base that the Orioles are serious about building a World Series club.
Why shouldn’t they sign him?
He’s 30, and he’d cost a mint
Three widely followed sites — FanGraphs, MLBTradeRumors.com and The Athletic –predict Burnes will settle for a seven-year contract, ranging between $196 and $217 million.
Gerrit Cole, also a client of Boras, signed for nine years and $324 million with the New York Yankees after the 2019 season. Boras believes that Burnes is the best free-agent starter since Cole.
The Orioles would be betting that Burnes would be an excellent starter at 35, 36 and 37, a time when many starters lose their effectiveness or break down.
Boras may compare Burnes to Max Scherzer, who signed a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Washington Nationals at age 30, and was a five-time All-Star and helped the Nationals win the World Series in 2019.
Signing Burnes could tie up so much money that the Orioles might not be able to re-sign some of their young stars — Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg — to extensions when the time comes.
Rubenstein often says that Baltimore isn’t New York or Los Angeles economically, and the Orioles are going to be prudent.
Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias met with Boras at the general managers’ meetings in San Antonio and will see him again at next month’s Winter Meetings in Dallas, and speak with him before then.
“Mike has told me that Baltimore is in a position to be highly competitive, and we’re gonna meet on a number of players,” Boras said this week. “So I definitely think they have an attitude to pursue levels of acquiring some great players.”
What happens?
The guess here is that the Orioles make a more serious effort to re-sign Burnes than Santander, but $31 million a year for an excellent starting pitcher might still be too rich for the Orioles, and they’ll sign one of the other intriguing starters instead.
It will be interesting to see if Boras takes a wait-and-see approach, and if the Orioles want to secure a top-of-the rotation starter before Burnes is ready to make a deal.
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